Neo Forum Mafia - Game Over

[raikaria]

I'll be gone for a while but...

I said one of Shadoweh and Conq were probably scum, so that's where I'm starting

##Vote: Conqueror

[Serela]

I'm not lynching o4rfish. I did that rereading overnight (especially because shadoweh flipped town ashfjahg;sfdhgsdfhsd), I also don't really think SB looks scummy at all.

This leaves on my list... Dan and Niektory...? The only reason I'm not up in pitchforks about voting Dan is because this is honestly something he does as town (AND scum though,  for the love of god please post, if you're town you're only ensuring you have to be lynched sooner or later for posting too little to possibly be readable). I'm clearly wrong about something or another. Duskfall is probably my weakest townread since it was mostly over the way he reacted to a couple things that I thought "Well, I don't think scum would even think of this!", but I have some uh... re-evaluating to do, so I'm not sure exactly where my reads are changing yet.

Niektory was getting the newbie pass for d1, on d2 it was still a bit early to push the lurker lynch (and a bit of newbie pass), now... yeah, it's about time to seriously consider these things. However, especially considering I'm presenting this as my main case at the moment, let's take a good runthrough of the facts.

1.Niektory posted 4 times in Day 2.
...oh yeah, and Niektory was going around d1 talking and thinking scum didn't have daytalk. This would be a good way to look uninformed and town but scumbuddies could have suggested they do that I guess...

asdfl;jasdgaskld;jk;l this is giving me second thoughts
why did i townread nuxl again, was it a total sham reason? maybe it was a total sham reason. wasn't i drunk at the time. need to revisit duskfall and nuxl reads

[Serela]

*sobs* mafia is hard

[zwerdjib]

...er, would you like to finish your thought?

[sb]

My townread on Shadoweh being ignored and her getting lynched really is like old times huh? >.> At least this one wasn't in LYLO.

I thought about this overnight and I want to lynch in hard lurkers today (Dan/Niek) because their slots are going to be a huge question mark going forwards and I don't think we'll be able to solve them with roles considering we already have vig/masons. 

##Vote: ActionDan

I think their end of phase yesterday was really weird. Their D1 was actually alright but it feels like he just flipped a switch and forgot all about it? His entire progression D1 seemed to imply they were good with lynching Shadoweh and Duskfall was null, but then they went and voted for Duskfall yesterday? I don't know how much this means since Shadoweh flipped town and Duskfall is the unknown but I can't wrap my head around it. Dan, what changed during D2 to make you want to vote for Duskfall instead of Shadoweh? I know you said the read changed but like... why? It's so out of nowhere.

I think that Niek is getting too much of a free pass for being a newbie, and nobody is talking about it despite nobody townreading him. The way the wagon built and dissolved so suddenly yesterday was kinda spooky and he feels like he's playing really safe. They say its a personality thing but it kinda reminds me of my first scumgame where I was talking a lot about game mechanic stuff to feel helpful and struggled to formulate fake reads.

I was townreading Duskfall initially because I thought their reaction to being threatened to be vig was most likely a town PR (because scum would just roleblock vig!Abu probably and it didn't feel like VT on). Then the Masons claimed and I was less sure, and then they claimed Vanilla. I'm really confused on like, how they didn't claim to be scumreading Shadoweh when they were effectively listing reasons to scumread her at phase end. I wanna see what they think of their wagon today now that Shadoweh has flipped town because I'm not happy.

I still don't like Oarfish, they stopped scumhunting yesterday as soon as the heat was off of them. Their scumreads yesterday were reactionary aside from Shadoweh, who they were scumreading for not meeting their expectations of being Shadoweh on D1? But they also said that Shadoweh's D2 posts were better so it confuses me that they still listed them as a scumread without properly bridging the gap between this. I can see why they would vote them over Duskfall in the end of the day still, but they just popped a vote and vanished.

I hope Zeep posts more like he said he would, but his end of phase votechange felt like he'd actually been convinced to move, and so I feel a bit better about him.

Serela why are you worried about Nuxl right now? I uh, don't share your paranoia aside from "maybe he could've been shot by now as universal townread" but I think scum would probably be more scared of Fabloo last night too.

[Serela]

...er, would you like to finish your thought?

what thought, the 'let's vote niektory' followed by immediately finding something as I read over his posts that made me completely doubt wanting to vote niektory? because that was the end of that thought. I don't think i want to vote niektory anymore. my world has turned upside down and my town reads are lying to me

i've been rereading nuxl. My initial reaction to his d2 (I'm not touching first-half-d1 nuxl posts you can't MAKE ME) was it looks good but I realized something and scrutinized it harder, he didn't really have any read except on the people who didn't exist until the end of d1 (niektory, nnr, dan) and it was for not liking how they ended the day, which while not WRONG, is also like, the only scumreads he commited to are the big lurkers who obviously no one can actually find fault with not liking them but, like, them being a decent policy lynch isn't the same as having scumreads. The NNR is slightly better but even -he- wasn't exactly invested in that one at all and said he was hesitant but also found it acceptable. So yeah this slot actually... isn't great. Why was dusk saying nuxl was town clear for doing something that i don't think it was ever even clear nuxl did? if anything you'd think niektory did that but I just didn't exactly question it (and also, was drunk and kind of didn't want to reread all of nuxl's posts)

[Serela]

Serela why are you worried about Nuxl right now? I uh, don't share your paranoia aside from "maybe he could've been shot by now as universal townread" but I think scum would probably be more scared of Fabloo last night too.

Um I think you completely misunderstood what I was saying. I'm not talking about all of town's read being a sham I mean that excuse I personally used was bad. The NK wasn't even remotely near my train of thought, because uh, with claimed masons around why would they be shooting nuxl (fabloo was a great nk probably too so that's not weird in the slightest)

[zwerdjib]

no, i mean you wrote 1) then had a breakdown

[Serela]

yes that is exactly what i just answered for

[zwerdjib]

yes that is exactly what i just answered for

okay so there is no 2) i should be expecting

[Serela]

there was going to be but then 2) turned out to be unexpectedly stillborn, RIP 2)

[sb]

Um I think you completely misunderstood what I was saying. I'm not talking about all of town's read being a sham I mean that excuse I personally used was bad. The NK wasn't even remotely near my train of thought, because uh, with claimed masons around why would they be shooting nuxl (fabloo was a great nk probably too so that's not weird in the slightest)

Oh I just thought you were getting vaguely paranoid rather than talking about the whole town tbh. Your reread of Nuxl sounds good actually? But I don't wanna reread at midnight and uh, reading Nuxl in isolation feels like you miss a lot because of his posting style. Also seeing if his D1 thoughts lead into D2 is kinda important but uh, 50 pages please no.

[Serela]

Thank you! Also sorry I kind of glazed over your post the first time because it cut mine (also I'm posting at work so lots of interruptions), I wouldn't be against lynching Dan today at all, although sort of hesitant re:niektory. Still, even if we're lynching lurkers it's important to maintain discussion on more active players (I mean we probably have 4 scum to find anyway)

[zwerdjib]

there was going to be but then 2) turned out to be unexpectedly stillborn, RIP 2)

ah okay.

was wondering if i should wait to post my duskfall thoughts

You are correct I have not been scumhunting today

weird as fire truck. possibly scummy. i know its out of context but i think theres more. this is just the stuff i thought abt during night phase.

actually i guess i should still post the logic. scumslip could overrule towniness here if raik knows abu wagon is inevitable and just wants cred for it

cough

hajimeyo

this post. this is why i think raikaria is scum and just tmid

subconsciously, he leaves out the possibility of being shot by a vigilante as the counterwagon. this is scummy because it implies raikaria already knows what abu will flip and is certain he is the only vigilante in the setup

additionally, despite the vote on himself, i think hes also sure that abu is being lynched unless theres a last second cfd, which, if/since he is scum, he can mitigate anyway with the votes on abu and secure cred for himself d2

There's a good chance he's actually just tming Abu town here I think?

i forgot this post existed. this is strange as HELL. he 180s after this and defends raikaria. why? its a blatant contradiction and i feel dumb for not noticing this way earlier. he goes from saying "yeah that might be tmi" to

That's not a slip

bothersome. ive begun to think this may actually be S behavior.

also, theres yesterday eod. i was scrolling through his iso and saw

I already know where to go next if you're town dusk.

Surprisingly, less sure if you're scum.

I am town time to go next before I flip

and then fabloo dies. just as i was beginning to get a solid tr on him too.

dont forget the anticlimactic claim that he delayed for no reason

ok i am vt

like why delay this? could you really not think of a fakeclaim in time?

his eod2 is somehow worse than his eod1. i cant townread this guys end of day posts. its just impossible. please tell me i am not the only one seeing this

[Nuxl]

I was asked about this in private and it made me remember that convention differs from web sight to web sight and even from game to game on a given web sight so I should be clear about it in public: Scum do have daytalk.

I was the one who asked the daytalk question lmfao @dusk and also asked about where scumchat is.

[Nuxl]

itt and will be reading a bit later, but i kinda got spewed not scum unless someone else cc's the fact that the question was asked

[Nuxl]

i did not reread the thread and i will sooner than later, i feel bad if tommy is actually scum and i got skeeved the entire time but i don't feel like he's been scummier based on what i'm used to on smogon. i'll do my homework though as much as i don't want to do it

[Nuxl]

i did not reread the thread and i will sooner than later, i feel bad if tommy is actually scum and i got skeeved the entire time but i don't feel like he's been scummier based on what i'm used to on smogon. i'll do my homework though as much as i don't want to do it

regardless i would advise to develop your own reads and not be stonewalled by me if anyone felt that way since eods always make a bit frozen

ad/niek is still what i wanted to look at, almost want to sheep dormio too, everything else pending

[Serela]

To rephrase my previous post:if we lurker lynch today I'm 100% cool with it but I'd much rather Dan than niektory at present

I dipped my toes into Nuxl's d1, his 540 looks really good but I don't get that feeling much afterwards and as said his D2 was rather lackluster. I've townread everyone except the lurkers at some point so no more "i think this one thing they did was pretty town" if the rest looks not as much

also my last 451 game me and (action)dan idled as scum for like d2-d4 and still won hahaha but i dont know if that's an accurate representation of how he plays considering more recent games i looked at

sobbing, so true
oh hey nuxl is posting, reading


...oh yes, that was what happened. yes that's a thing isn't it. :T I guess I did have a good reason to drunkread nuxl as town
##Vote ActionDan

[Nuxl]

i think if ad/niek doesn't contain one s i'll cry, but i kind of feel like at this point it kind of has to

[Serela]

I'll be gone for a while but...

I said one of Shadoweh and Conq were probably scum, so that's where I'm starting

##Vote: Conqueror

so wait
was there actually a case for this other than 'i bet because of that spat that one of them is scum'
conq's on most people's town list last i know is all so I'd like to know why you think he's scum, sorry if it's in a post from yesterday that I don't remember

[zwerdjib]

no thoughts on my post sirela?

[Serela]

WOW I totally missed that sorry. Having read it now, I dunno I'm not really seeing these things as being as bad as you do. I do need to go over duskfall tho'.

[Kilgamayan]

Refa has requested a replacement due to unforeseen reality circumstances. If anyone is interested, please let me know in private.

[O4rfish]

So, six players are dead and we haven't found any scum yet. This indicates scum are good players, right?

[zwerdjib]

WOW I totally missed that sorry. Having read it now, I dunno I'm not really seeing these things as being as bad as you do. I do need to go over duskfall tho'.

zzzzzz this is why i dont write long posts

[Refa]

Just going to put my final reads that was in reply to Shadoweh before the hammer (and changed a lot after the hammer TBH, for one it doesn't have her at the top).

DON'T WANT TO LYNCH
Dormio
NNR
Oarfish
Raikaria
Nuxl
Duskfall

MIXED FEELINGS ABOUT
Zwerd
Serela

THESE PEOPLE ARE 100% SCUM AFTER THESE NIGHTKILLS PUSH THE fire truck OUT OF THEM
SB
Conqueror

NON ENTITIES
ActionDan
Niektory

Okay, see you later.

[O4rfish]

But the Town factional kill is the lynch. It's way easier to kill poor players than good players with a lynch, especially when compared with a night kill.

Uh, thanks Refa I agree with a lot of that although I have a lot of doubts about your slot.

[O4rfish]

This game looks like it is going according to plan for scum. I have some ideas as to how to shake things up, but I'm not sure how many players would agree to do that.

Idea 1: mass rotate reads. Each player does a deep dive on someone they haven't analyzed before.

Idea 2: mass rotate styles. Each player tries to do something they're not used to or haven't been using. PoE, vote count analysis, looking for inconsistencies, etc.

Idea 3: level up. In order to lynch scum for the first time, we need to play better. Each person reading this needs to do better at either finding scum or convincing people to lynch their targets, and probably both.

I'm going to play differently for the rest of the game.

[O4rfish]

Oh yeah: don't give up. Scum know who their teammates and their opponents are. Scum can collaborate on their tactics and arguments. But scum have a third advantage: they can reassure their teammates. If you're town, you might feel like you're playing this game alone. I know I've felt like that a lot. But we still have a numerical advantage over them. The game isn't over, and we can win.