Neo Forum Mafia - Game Over

[Refa]

oh god there's still so many -.- Hey, I realized I can P R O V E that I'm not mafia: I would have shot Refa.

Survivor confirmed.

[Refa]

I feel like this is something people said about me multiple times in past games too but like... all my posts towards end of day were mainly about how scummy Abu and Shadoweh were and that we should lynch them, so, I don't understand??? :C

Abu was looking like the de-facto lynch of the day for most of the end of the phase and lots of people voiced interest in lynching Shadoweh so I didn't need to like, actively yell at people about why they weren't voting them, if you mean something like that?

It's less that and more...the cases, I guess. I don't actually see you pushing Shadoweh a lot at the end of the day, but that's fine because she wasn't a lynch candidate at that time anyways. For Abu, uh...fair enough honestly I'm wrong there upon a reread.

Nah, I don't think yelling at people is uh...very productive TBH unless people are throwing hard.

At the moment, I think your Day 1 is mostly fine (still waffled a lot but what you did have was fine and yeah, you're right, you definitely pushed it at the end of the day) and your Day 2 feels like your reads haven't progressed since Day 1? Have the Abu/Prims flips changed your opinion on anyone? What about the Abu wagon? Do you think there were any scum on it and, if so, who would you first suspect? I know you're voting Shadoweh who was technically on the wagon but only to get a lynch there; moreso checking if you're interested in anyone before that.

Also this is probably unfair to you but I'm definitely interested in how your wagon progresses versus the Oarfish wagon (especially NNR's vote putting Oarfish ahead before Niek immediately tied the two of you again). Not treating this as a 1v1, but it's kind of how I'd expect wagons to progress if at least one was scum kind of thing.

[Refa]

Actually, what do you think about Oarfish's wagon?

Oarfish, what do you think about Serela's wagon and actually just Serela himself since you've never commented on it.

[O4rfish]

I agree that she is coasting but I don't necessarily think it's scum coasting unless she is like, literally scum with Rai Abu Oarfish and cutting her losses by not engaging too heavily with the game but if that's the case uh, I'll accept being wrong because we're probably just going to win anyway.

Do you think that scum!Serela drops the case though when he doesn't have a good fallback option just like that? It looks like Serela is actually looking for scum and just comes up short when they examine their suspicions more closely to me because I don't think scum!Serela benefits from this unless they're on a scumteam with Oarfish and Shadoweh or something and the entire team is imploding.

I have been thinking about this first quote for a while now and I can't come up with any explanation for including my name other than a scumslip.  Instead of writing the list of "people who are playing badly" or "people who are major wagons" he wrote the list of "people we (scum) are targeting"

##Vote: sb

Several people have asked me questions and I'll try to get to them.

[Nuxl]

NNR is reactive regardless of alignment but I've only played with scum!NNR once and that was when he was alt scumteam in a multiball game and I was hard checked out of the game. I think that it's definitely within scum!NNR's range based on a game I read (C9++ I think?) so I'm kind of hoping that roles or associations solves him because it might be more reliable than play. With those in mind I'm keeping an eye on him but I don't think I would vote there right now.

Linky linky please

[Refa]

@Refa I mean that at the rate Serela is writing off people he wouldn’t have good mislynches to push as scum. If his lynch pool dries up he’d probably have to make a really jank pivot but it’s hard to do even that because he has recently reread people so it’d be like “why did you not pick up on this the second time around?”

Sorry, forgot to respond to this but it's like...this seems like a weak defense to me. As scum, it's super easy to later on be like "well, I think everyone alive is town so I need to reevaluate things" on a future day. Heck, I've done that as town.

[Serela]

It's less that and more...the cases, I guess. I don't actually see you pushing Shadoweh a lot at the end of the day, but that's fine because she wasn't a lynch candidate at that time anyways. For Abu, uh...fair enough honestly I'm wrong there upon a reread.

Nah, I don't think yelling at people is uh...very productive TBH unless people are throwing hard.

At the moment, I think your Day 1 is mostly fine (still waffled a lot but what you did have was fine and yeah, you're right, you definitely pushed it at the end of the day) and your Day 2 feels like your reads haven't progressed since Day 1? Have the Abu/Prims flips changed your opinion on anyone? What about the Abu wagon? Do you think there were any scum on it and, if so, who would you first suspect? I know you're voting Shadoweh who was technically on the wagon but only to get a lynch there; moreso checking if you're interested in anyone before that.

Also this is probably unfair to you but I'm definitely interested in how your wagon progresses versus the Oarfish wagon (especially NNR's vote putting Oarfish ahead before Niek immediately tied the two of you again). Not treating this as a 1v1, but it's kind of how I'd expect wagons to progress if at least one was scum kind of thing.

Ok i'm still pr-drunky but I think I can respond to this fine
i didn't really suspect prims as scum (altohugh I never do as I said, prims is too good tbh) and only shadoweh was actually suspecting prims so this doesn't really change much
although still GO DDAMMIT PRIMS
anyway, since Raikaria wa smostly likely town as well, that means town/town wagons so unfort. wagon analysis isn't super helpful
if shadoweh does hopefully flip scum later that might kinda help at least
but curretnly if we had town/town wagons it didn't really change much
god are the current wagons me/niek/oarifhs? that'd be depresssing.. i should probabl tyrereaad oarfish bu tI highly doub ti'l be able to read them much for reasons presented above, i'd hope to evaliute tham after multiple days of lynchs to wagon analysis

niek is like, augh, how do you even eval a newbie who's hard luriking, it's scummyish but also if they're new whaddaya gonna do, it's totally neutral and dnagerous

wait isn't shadoweh still a wagon
i mean i still want ot lynch shdaoweh

[Nuxl]

pretty certain I'm a quasi IC unless someone CCs asking the question or something, any disagreements?

I guess reading is helpful, I don't think a scum Serela makes posts like 1091. Like I really don't think Serela pulls off 'smug that im right' as scum.

Town:
Meaniequeror
Raikaria
Celery
Fabloo

Probably Town:
Dormio
Zwerb
Nuxl? tbh i still can't read all his posts but i just don't see him being scum i guess

Who else is even in this game

1. O4rfish (Rumia)
7. sb (Sanae Kochiya)
12. Refa (Reimu Hakurei)
13. ActionDan (Rinnosuke Morichika)
14. NekoNekoRex (Chen)
15. Duskfall98 (Shinki)
17. Niektory (Yukari Yakumo)

oh god there's still so many -.- Hey, I realized I can P R O V E that I'm not mafia: I would have shot Refa. You can't deny this, obvi obvitown for me. :relieved: I kind of think Refa's posts look townie but I can't say I've been reading them in detail, they just have a good tone. That just makes me feel better about my vote though. :shrug: I'm still reading about 2 pages back.

you mentioned that o4rfish was townie to you earlier in the game but are putting him in your pool here. can you explain why you feel this way about him and why you townread zwer/me?

[Refa]

I have been thinking about this first quote for a while now and I can't come up with any explanation for including my name other than a scumslip.  Instead of writing the list of "people who are playing badly" or "people who are major wagons" he wrote the list of "people we (scum) are targeting"

##Vote: sb

I'm confused, why is that a slip?

Also you may have answered this before but what made you drop your Nuxl read?

@Serela
I agree that the wagons were likely town/town but I think scum would have pushed Abu harder than Raikaria because 1) his role and 2) it's just...going to be incredibly awkward to push someone self voting as scum like that. I've tried before, it was awful. I kind of suspect this is why universal scumread Raikaria has become universal townread Raikaria, because scum doesn't want to step anywhere near that landmine. BUT ANYWAYS it's just you and Oarfish at 3 ATM. Definitely like...the highest wagons but also nothing that can't be changed if there's a better lynch. What do you think about Niek's and Shadoweh's last posts?

[Nuxl]

##Vote Niektory

[Kilgamayan]

Vote Count 2.3

O4rfish (Rumia) (3): NekoNekoRex, sb, Dormio Ergo Sum, NekoNekoRex
Dormio (Ran Yakumo) (0):
Shadoweh (Yuuka Kazami) (1): Conqueror, NekoNekoRex, zwerdjib, Serela
Conqueror (Tenshi Hinanawi) (0): Fabloo
Serela (Koishi Komeiji) (3): Refa, Conqueror, Niektory
sb (Sanae Kochiya) (1): NekoNekoRex, NekoNekoRex, O4rfish
Raikaria (Sunny Milk) (0):
Fabloo (Yumemi Okazaki) (0):
zwerdjib (Yuyuko Saigyouji) (0):
Refa (Reimu Hakurei) (0):
ActionDan (Rinnosuke Morichika) (0):
NekoNekoRex (Chen) (0): sb
Duskfall98 (Shinki) (1): Shadoweh, zwerdjib
Nuxl (Youki Konpaku) (0):
Niektory (Yukari Yakumo) (2): Fabloo, Nuxl

Not voting (4): Raikaria, ActionDan, Duskfall98, zwerdjib

with 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. You have some tremendous number of nanoseconds remaining.

ActionDan has been prodded for inactivity.

[Serela]

re:refa Shadoweh's latest post is BETTER but it doesn't solve the problems from all her previous posts. her townreads are nothing surprising and she null reads half of the living players with no scumreads. This is Terrible still. It takes very little effort to produce this kind of post ,you don't even have to have really read the game.

and I already respondedto "I would have hsot refa!" b/c it's ridiculously easy to make these statements as mafia, and as said, I've made these kinds of posts AS mafia multiple times

latest... niektory post...? man where was it.. ok found. eh it's still pretty neutral. questions on basic terminalogy (fair, neutral) voted me for doubting abu proving his vig aproved his alignment (accurate but not indicative of anyhting; he easily could have been itp serial killer) still absolutely neutral.

[Nuxl]

Niek vote almost feels too easy? But I have a stronger opinion here than most leading wagons right now.

NNR is also an acceptable wagon(personally hesitant there because Prims TR'd them, but would like to hear other pmeta takes and @sb link me the game if that wasn't clear) just because their eod still bothers me a bunch. Wouldn't mind Dan too unless he shows up some more? For a maj game the votes are pretty split and that's a little ominous.

Dunno what to make of the oarfish wagon because it has the two people(NNR and sb) who were crossvoting each other earlier in the day consolidating there and dropping their scumreads on each other for it, unless someone can pinpoint me to a certain meta tell of oarfish that represents this. Scumteam would kinda just be letting him fire truck around and do nothing right now, unless that's a thing Oarfish does on that alignment.

Niek's vote was really strange so that made a bit queasy regarding the Serela wagon but the other people voting there aren't bad at all. But I honestly don't have a read on Serela in general.

I'm afraid my extremely timid personality is showing. I joined something really out of my comfort zone.
I think Raikaria would play it safer as scum, unless he's really ballsy, so I'd say he's town.
Not me, but you can deduce from my Day 1 posts that I assumed they don't have it.

Anyway, I'm going to
##Vote: Serela
for now. He was sowing a lot of doubt to the AbuHumaid's ability to prove himself. This influenced my Day 1 vote, at least.

Why did you vote Abu in the first place? Just Serela specifically, given other people were nagging him near the end of the day? Did specifically Serela influence you?

I don't like how fixated Nuxl seems to be on meta the entire game. It's like he's looking for meta things to nod about rather than actually scumhunting. Also @Nuxl; as I said before, at the start of Day 1, there is no meta atm.

your definition on meta is still incorrect, i believe i already responded to it, did not get a response from you. what are you willing to vote?

Just leaving this here in case Nuxl flips scum sometime this game: What duskfall just did was a really bad attempt at distancing.

how much of a personal meta person are you? (can you answer my previous questions i mentioned you for you too)

i have something to say following this but given i don't know anything about you i think i'm in my right to poke around there

[Nuxl]

ActionDan has been prodded for inactivity.

Does someone get prodded only if they don't show up in the thread after 24 hours?

re:refa Shadoweh's latest post is BETTER but it doesn't solve the problems from all her previous posts. her townreads are nothing surprising and she null reads half of the living players with no scumreads. This is Terrible still. It takes very little effort to produce this kind of post ,you don't even have to have really read the game.

and I already respondedto "I would have hsot refa!" b/c it's ridiculously easy to make these statements as mafia, and as said, I've made these kinds of posts AS mafia multiple times

Is the former something that shadoweh tends to do when you play with her, or is this just a general "this is bad" sort of thing. If it's unusual it's obviously more obstinate for sure.

[Kilgamayan]

Other General Rules

- Everyone must post once every 24 hours. If they do not they will be prodded for activity. Not responding to a prod or repeated prods may result in a modkill. Extenuating circumstances may be given respite if I know about them in advance.

[Nuxl]

I agree that he seems more out of things but I'm not sure if that makes him scum rather than just busy. His D1 still holds up fine I think and he has reasons to be less motivated outside of the game, so unless he just got hard complacent I don't see why motivation would be an issue for scum!Nuxl? Especially because he seemed surprised that everyone was giving him a pass coming into the day. It could be wifom so I don't think it's a point worth townreading him for but I feel like the dropoff can be justified.

What are you currently reading me as right now

[Nuxl]

Who actually reads past games to help them determine a read on other people

Who wants to do some homework

[Conqueror]

Not fully caught up with the thread but wanted to catch nuxl while he was still here.
@nuxl what's your current read on tommy? he's massively dropped off d2 to the point where I can't tell what he's thinking anymore when I remember I could still get a general idea of where he stood in the game d1. "oarfish town conq town raik town" as the only reads list of his is like, okay, is that it? I remember him saying in MU spec chat that his town meta was to be super aggressive and get into fights with people and his scum meta was the opposite or something like that and although D1 felt like the former D2 really feels like the latter atm.

Problem is that Shadoweh is also voting for...being self-pres against a claimed vig when I don't feel like that's a strong reason to think he's mafia.

[Nuxl]

Not fully caught up with the thread but wanted to catch nuxl while he was still here.
@nuxl what's your current read on tommy? he's massively dropped off d2 to the point where I can't tell what he's thinking anymore when I remember I could still get a general idea of where he stood in the game d1. "oarfish town conq town raik town" as the only reads list of his is like, okay, is that it? I remember him saying in MU spec chat that his town meta was to be super aggressive and get into fights with people and his scum meta was the opposite or something like that and although D1 felt like the former D2 really feels like the latter atm.

Problem is that Shadoweh is also voting for...being self-pres against a claimed vig when I don't feel like that's a strong reason to think he's mafia.

he's a weaker townread right now but i don't overtly support any wagon on him. how important is "why?"

do you like doing homework conq

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

define Statement77
{
        My activity during the week will be significantly lower than usual due to me being busy and/or tired with work. In addition to this, my timezone means that when I'm back from work and able to post, (Playerbase) is sleeping.
}
define Statement78
{
        Reading through the thread now to try to make a post in the near future. Hopefully.
}
query (Playerbase)
{
        ask (Statement77)
        ask (Statement78)
}

[Conqueror]

i hate homework but post what you were thinking of anyway. if it's a past game im not reading it but it might be useful still.

how important is "why?"

well i dont need you to out any secret towntells or anything but if you have something you could share that would help me solve a little better

[O4rfish]

to sb in re Shadoweh recent posts
I wanted to see how Conq's claim played out before commenting on it. Shadoweh's response seems not very scummy to me. Her activity today looks better than her activity yesterday.

[Conqueror]

Shadoweh's response seems not very scummy to me. Her activity today looks better than her activity yesterday.

Which part of her response did you like?

[Nuxl]

I'll be taking a midterm during deadline if DL is this thursday

i hate homework but post what you were thinking of anyway. if it's a past game im not reading it but it might be useful still.
well i dont need you to out any secret towntells or anything but if you have something you could share that would help me solve a little better

i was actually going to link you to past games LOL. i'm doing my research as this game goes on

town meta was to be super aggressive and get into fights with people and his scum meta was the opposite or something like that

this is sort of correct but only in instances where tommy ends up drawing a lot of heat early on, when he's town and is townread he can afford to stand by and comment a tad more, funnily enough historically not all that pressuring as he'd like to you think nowadays. Maybe this depends on investment.

his scum meta more recently on smogon has had way strawberriestier reads. he used to hide behind a bunch of walls earlier but now he hides behinds more questions a lot and certain appeals when he's scum and under pressure.

instances of faulty logic are important, if it reads like garbage it probably is garbage (there's... a few instances where faulty stuff as town too so if there's something you're curious about filter it towards me. not often though)

i dont have a super big idea how that really interacts concurrently in places with new players but if my assumption is correct that scumchat is on discord then i would assume that he would've showed up in thread a lot earlier than he did which was my earlier "angleshoot"

[O4rfish]

to Refa in re Serela's voters, Serela's posts
I'lll try to analyze this, but want to answer your other question first, about sb.
You can iso people by clicking on their name, then view posts.
If you iso sb, you see he's townreading and defending me before and after that post. Also he attacks serela very recently, but doesn't put him in the list.  BT posted a votecount earlier, so it's not like sb thinks I'm a major wagon. My explanation makes the most sense to me. 

[Fabloo]

how much of a personal meta person are you? (can you answer my previous questions i mentioned you for you too)

i have something to say following this but given i don't know anything about you i think i'm in my right to poke around there

Depends on the people. Others are easily caught out by it because they aren't dynamic players, some shouldn't be read by it because their play has little to no change as either alignment. Then you have people who are so attuned to their meta that they will intentionally do things to ping you for it. It can be pretty wicked depending how desperate they are in with the third example. I don't think anyone has reached that point here and I hope not to see it because it's frustrating to deal with. I'll never make an entire case on meta but pattern behavior and recognition should never be discarded. I imagine even in the back of your head you are somewhat thinking about those you're familiar with and trying to figure out the tone of their posts. Becoming obsessed is when problems arise, because then you either write off behavior for fitting a meta or you miss something crucial because you envision a certain behavior. That goes both ways for townread and scumread. I'll get to your questions.

[Fabloo]

Adding to that Nuxl, which type of person is Duskfall? From the examples I've given. What do you consider yourself as?

[Nuxl]

Adding to that Nuxl, which type of person is Duskfall? From the examples I've given. What do you consider yourself as?

i'm 100% the first archetype, i think i'm an easy read if people actually read a few games or two. literal night and day. this is because my interest in any game is usually heavily driven by my alignment and post count is a tell for me and nobody cares enough to do it

dusk is probably the first of the three (mostly everyone on smogon is with a few exceptions: the site as a whole usually has a very strong tophalf set of players as town who as scum get caught a lot easier) but the last two times i had to read him the first he idled out of d1 completely (intentionally, this game isn't a meta indicator for him) and got lynched and the second i knew he was being weird but didnt have the balls to push a wagon on him.

[Nuxl]

there's a fair handful of players that are way easier to discern based on game differences on my homesite than tommy is but he's still catchable (the best player on our site who uses pmeta usually catches him pretty often)

are you a homework person fabloo

[Fabloo]

i'm 100% the first archetype, i think i'm an easy read if people actually read a few games or two. literal night and day. this is because my interest in any game is usually heavily driven by my alignment and post count is a tell for me and nobody cares enough to do it

dusk is probably the first of the three (mostly everyone on smogon is with a few exceptions: the site as a whole usually has a very strong tophalf set of players as town who as scum get caught a lot easier) but the last two times i had to read him the first he idled out of d1 completely (intentionally, this game isn't a meta indicator for him) and got lynched and the second i knew he was being weird but didnt have the balls to push a wagon on him.

I think people who fall into the hypothetical third are those who should be fact-checked more often then. He's going to sit behind meta or even idle until people stop paying attention. I really have nothing substantial to say about him other than he is here sometimes and then he is not. That's a bit troubling if you compare the output to others. Writing paragraphs or extensive thought isn't the ticket I'm looking for either, you can say a lot with one sentence. It's just that Duskfall hasn't done that. I have no problem with people who are concise, but if you can tell me an opinion that you can solidly remember that he's given that actually followed some kind of process that you could refer back to? I'd like to see it. I think he's being intentionally coy and I haven't liked it since D1.