Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Game Over!)

[Serela]

[PX]

Serela still being at L-1 while being hammered is great. Him flipping roleblocker is great, although we still don't know what the third and possible fourth mafia member can do. I don't think it'll change our plans for tonight, I'm still flavorcopping Disquieted.

[Fabloo]

Without sounding like a broken record. Going to look at Serela in light of everything going on.

[Fabloo]

Serela had a weird leave to this game. This whole thing is slightly unsettled. There are some defined traits however. That Nucleus death in particular is quiet a bit telling. You had Nucleus at death's door and then Disquieted/Serela both decided to try and get a wagon going on him. Listen. I've been trying to bury Disquieted for a while but this won't be pt. 2 of that.

Serela made it clear that he gave up because Banana got confirmed town through Bardiche. Alright. Fine. I want to look at that Nucleus and his own lynch. In specific #1600-#1636.

Grabbing the final votecount again.

NucleusWaffles (8): Yaersulf, sb, BigBangMeteor, PX, Fabloo, Daiya, NekoNekoRex, NucleusWaffles (Hammer+1!)
banana spritzee (2): Disquieted, Serela
Disquieted (2): banana spritzee, Tom

Daiya is strange here. Though the votecount previously was about 15 minutes to deadline and Banana was starting to gain a bit of traction. What I see right now in this votecount is that if scum were on it? They were early. Think Yearsulf/SB/BBM. I'm also accounting to the idea that's it's two here. This can be wrong but again I cannot see Serela doing what he did with a single partner left. I mean. Bare in mind that the deadline was extended and there was plenty of time to keep talking. Disquieted looks even worse. Everytime I bring this up he pivots from it. BBM is right in that you can't convince scum you're scum. NOw that we've got Serela's flip it's going to take a bit of unraveling to truly understand what the fire truck was happening right here.

Does Yaersulf just park his vote on Nucleus despite all the noise going on? Be the first there as well? See what shocks me about all this is that somehow. Somehow? Both scum cc'd each other. This is so unprecedented and insane. Maybe Serela wanted the credit and the clear.

[Fabloo]

I'm now going to consider this in two routes:

1. The easy route. Disquieted and BBM are our other PRs. You lynch Daiya/Yearsulf/sb the game is won. Disquieted jails Daiya go off results. IThinking about it in terms of our numbers. a situation where there is two scum it looks like this.

9 alive now. Nightkill.
8 alive on D5. Mislynch (7) Nightkill (6).
6 alive on D6. This is now MYLO with two scum remaining. If there is a mislynch we lose.
4 alive. Scum ties for majority game over. Scum isn't losing as hard you people expect with this in mind. They have to push two bad lynches. That's it.

With this in mind? They have the ammunition. Serela posed the question why I'm not dead yet? What's the point in killing the masons. You need kills that aren't traceable and you need to targets to accuse. In the situation that I'm wrong this is still true. Dormio and NNR also survived for a very long time because two clears matter more as the game goes on.

2. The hard route. The PRs aren't what they seem and scum is way more clever than we're giving them credit. I'm just going to say that I strongly believe in the hard route. Yes I get it. Serela can indeed do what he did and not have it exactly line up with BBM/Disquieted. Everything he said isn't worth reading into the moment he claimed scum. Before that though? That's what I'm trying to figure out. I want you guys to look very closely at these numbers regardless.

[Fabloo]

So looking through Serela warrants half-results. I'm mixing up my words and my head kinda hurts. Trying to be coherent.

I don't think it's worth getting into a theory after mulling it over. I just hope that if things don't work out that the ideas that I have are imprinted onto this game before it's too late. If it's too late. It really.

It really fire trucks with my head that somehow scum double cc'd each other.

[Fabloo]

To reiterate.

Disquieted/BBM real? Lynch Daiya/Yaersulf/SB. I keep thinking both have to be real by the way. There's a very clear indication of BBM saying jail in his crumb d2. Then Disquieted confirmed it. Keep forgetting rai there but yeah. If that's real then I trust their ability to win. However.

If not? You get the point. I'm not going to say this is how it is and if you don't agree you're wrong.  The sinking feeling I've felt is like this alienable loneliness. Not many times did I feel like the active content was town trying to figure things out. I remember posing a question if scum is working overtime or not.

I have to say that scum did not play this well at all if it is just yknow. Easy. I swear I've said that so many times. Just sitting there thinking is it that easy? My hubris is trying to be prepared for situations that might not be true.

[Fabloo]

Ugh what frustrates me and what puts me in a loop is this.

BBM directly saw Disquieted jailing me. Alright. OK. Fine.

Here is why BBM/Disquieted cannot just have one scum. Here is why one of them can't be town and the other can be scum. They have direct links to one another by the information they've claimed and how it's been claimed.

1) BBM as a scum voyeur saw the jail and then used it to fakeclaim. This is unlikely because with a roleblocker and rolecop this would just but a very weak and almost useless variant.
2) Disquieted as a scum jailkeeper..jailed me N1? This is unlikely because it is again some strange variant of already flipped roles. Jailkeeper also protects and there's few times scum has their own protective and I mean. Roleblocking your own partner's actions. Not possible.

So we've ruled out that one of them could be scum and the other can't.

They have to both be real. If there is a direct contradiction the other cannot exist. We've established that a scum voyeur is stupid stacked with a Roleblocker/Rolecop. Also high unlikely. We've established Jailkeeper as a scum role is also stupid.

So. Let's just say BBM dies. He fliips scum. Not even voyeur. Why'd he confirm a town role and try to clear it?
Other situation. Disquieted dies. He flips scum. Why did BBM try to clear someone who was scum by claiming he was a jailkeeper?

[Fabloo]

So yeah. BBM/Disquieted are either your other PRs or they're not. Also a town flip of either confirms the existence of the other too.

Let's say they do kill Disquieted. BBM is a clear voyeur. Other way around? Same effect. Oh and let's not forget Disquieted is still rolling with the idea that Banana is his backup. They kill Disquieted we still have a "Jailkeeper." It's suicide. Complete suicide. They have to kill BBM here. I predict they're going to go after me and PX very soon however.

See and then you have Banana in this picture too. Disquieted/Banana/BBM all being scum together doesn't exist because that's 6 scum.

[Fabloo]

Rambling rambling.

BBM. You didn't listen to me last time and that kinda upset me but I'm going to write in this paragraph under the assumption you're real.

You shouldn't just voyeur Disquieted. I think that's a waste. If you're real you'll see he was there a kill on them and then we're nowhere.There's no roleblocker alive and there's no rolecop. I'm running under the assumption this is all we got in terms of PR. I mean yeah Yaersulf/Rai/Daiya all claimed vanilla remember? You should voyeur my sister. Actually do it this time.

Disquieted I think Daiya jailkeeper is fine in hindsight but I really think you should jail me. I know this comes around to protecting me and my sister but. I'll have a Daycop by D7. We still have a no lynch available to us as well if it comes to MYLO. We can basically checkmate scum. I don't think it will possible to block the kill and I think if Daiya was alone as scum after Serela did that he'd just give up too.

[Fabloo]

Had another thought. Keep going back here thinking about not leaving any page unturned.

I forget to mention an ability of mine. Actually it's more of a passive If I'm alive I can see if it's LYLO/MYLO. There's a catch to this however. I need to make it to D6. This is because by D6 all of my actions will still affect the game even if I die. I think this is crucial in determining if it's one scum left or two, which in turn will help us make a better decision.

Had some other thoughts.

[Fabloo]

Votecount
Disquieted (4): NekoNekoRex, Serela, banana spritzee, BigBangMeteor
Serela (1): Tom
NekoNekoRex (1): Disquieted
NucleusWaffles (1): Yaersulf
BigBangMeteor (1): raikaria
Daiya (1): Polaris
Polaris (1): Daiya
banana spritzee (0):
Tom (0):
Fabloo (0):
raikaria (0):
Yaersulf (0):
PX (0):

There are currently 2 male characters and 10 female characters in the game.
With 13 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch!
Not voting: Fabloo, NucleusWaffles, PX

Time until day phase ends: [ Expired ]

This is a good votecount from D2. More thoughts being processed. I was originally keeping a notepad and writing them down but. I'm keeping them to myself and just noticing minor things.

[Fabloo]

Votecount
NucleusWaffles (4): Yaersulf, PX, Serela, raikaria
Daiya (2): Fabloo, BigBangMeteor
Disquieted (2): banana spritzee, Tom
Serela (1): NekoNekoRex
raikaria (1): NucleusWaffles
sb (0):
Yaersulf (0):
Tom (0):
NekoNekoRex (0):
BigBangMeteor (0):
banana spritzee (0):
Fabloo (0):
PX (0):

There are currently 2 male characters and 11 female characters in the game.
With 13 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch!
Not voting: Daiya, sb, Disquieted

Time until day phase ends: [ Expired ]

Another good votecount. Consider these bookmakrs. I think the time lapse surrounding these votecounts I am posting are good to look at in hindsight.

[Fabloo]

Votecount
NucleusWaffles (4): Yaersulf, PX, Serela, raikaria
Serela (3): NekoNekoRex, sb, Fabloo
Disquieted (2): banana spritzee, Tom
Daiya (1): BigBangMeteor
raikaria (1): NucleusWaffles
sb (0):
Yaersulf (0):
Tom (0):
NekoNekoRex (0):
BigBangMeteor (0):
banana spritzee (0):
Fabloo (0):
PX (0):

There are currently 2 male characters and 10 female characters in the game.
With 13 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch!
Not voting: Daiya, Disquieted

Time until day phase ends: [ Expired ]

Another timestamp. D2 and especially when it ended is where everything really changed.

[Fabloo]

Votecount
NucleusWaffles (6): Serela, Yaersulf, sb, BigBangMeteor, PX, Fabloo (L-1!)
Serela (3): NekoNekoRex, raikaria, Daiya
Disquieted (2): banana spritzee, Tom
Daiya (1): Disquieted
raikaria (1): NucleusWaffles
banana spritzee (0):
sb (0):
Yaersulf (0):
Tom (0):
NekoNekoRex (0):
BigBangMeteor (0):
Fabloo (0):
PX (0):

There are currently 2 male characters and 11 female characters in the game.
With 13 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch!
Not voting: Nobody!
NucleusWaffles is at L-1!

Time until day phase ends: [ Expired ]

Huh.

[Fabloo]

Votecount
NucleusWaffles (5): Yaersulf, sb, BigBangMeteor, PX, Fabloo (L-2!)
Disquieted (3): banana spritzee, Tom, NekoNekoRex
Serela (2): raikaria, Daiya
banana spritzee (2): Disquieted, Serela
raikaria (1): NucleusWaffles
Daiya (0):
sb (0):
Yaersulf (0):
Tom (0):
NekoNekoRex (0):
BigBangMeteor (0):
Fabloo (0):
PX (0):

There are currently 2 male characters and 11 female characters in the game.
With 13 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch!
Not voting: Nobody!
NucleusWaffles is at L-2!

Time until day phase ends: [ Expired ]

Huh...

[Fabloo]

OK So something just striked me right now. Serela kept his vote planted on Nucleus through the majority of the ending day on D2. This seems to me like Serela was clearly trying to get towncred but then things backfired and a counter-wagon was beginning to mount o him. I think Serela got to about L-1.

First of all. Serela I'm sorry to say and I'm not trying to bring you down by why would you cc your own partner there. Why not just let him take the fall and then reap the rewards of such. That still will continue to fire trucking confuse me. That D2 was so odd. To see that two scum members were both the leading wagons is. Actually absurd. Completely completely absurd.

[Fabloo]

If we're talking about Nucleus defending me, it's out of sorts but there is no way I come out on Day 2, place a vote on Nucleus first and ask him to evaluate his role and still be suspicious of it later to the point where I'm forgoing mechanically correct choices to just want to personally lynch Nucleus anyways.

I also knew Serela was soft counterclaiming it and made sure to let Serela stay at L-2 so I could be certain of it instead of letting a quickhammer on him.

I'm not with Nucleus. This isn't really helping considering 3/4 of the game isn't with Nucleus but it exists.

Why Disquieted why. Why are you so. Scummy. Why.

BBM. Disquieted. Why have you two been buddying each other and defending each other so much. Listen I get a position where you have a voyeur results on Disquieted being the jailkeeper. But it's just insane. The amount you two go to defend each other is just absurd. I can get some rationale from you BBM. I wouldn't think two scum would CC each other and then just start thinking things were fine.

That's me to the letter, including my flavour. Interesting development.

Also I failed last night. Not familiar with the MOTK interface so I just noticed, sorry.

So you failed and got roleblocked by Serela? The flipped roleblocker? Wait but hold on.

Hold the fire truck. On.

BBM. Didn't you say that you targeted Serela again and you saw nothing?

anyways serela wasn't targeted by any actions but given he was told to target a flipped vanilla we don't really know he didnt just make it up on the spot.

[Fabloo]

In case you viewers at home didn't notice.

BBM "voyeurs" Serela again. He has just claimed nothing affected him.
Disquieted says he failed. A jailkeeper generally protects and roleblocks someone.

Now look. Serela is Roleblocker. He just flipped it. The Roleblocker and supposed jailkeeper just went on each other and BBM sees nothing.

That. Can't. Make. Sense. Unless they nullified each other?
 

[Fabloo]

The minute. The absolute minute I think. Maybe I am just a lunatic. Maybe BBM/Disquieted are just town. I see strawberries like this.

[Fabloo]

Disquieted says he tried to target Yaersulf. Fine. Fine. Says it failed. OK that means Serela directly targeted Disquieted? Don't see why else it fails.

BBM voyeurs Serela. Nothing shown. OK. Sure. This all matches up.

God.

If I had a mason to talk to. I would just do it here. You're all my quicktopic.

[Fabloo]

Alright this is my definitive thought after spending 4 hours or something reading the game back and whatnot. I can die or sleep peacefully

BBM/Disquieted. Either both town or both scum. Do not waiver from this. A lot of what I've said is just going through things and yeah.

If both town? I think I'd thin it down to Yaersulf/Daiya here.

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

Nobody left during the night!

The Fifth Day of Ys Mafia has begun!

Votecount
sb (0):
Fabloo (0):
raikaria (0):
banana spritzee (0):
Yaersulf (0):
Disquieted (0):
BigBangMeteor (0):
Daiya (0):
PX (0):

There are currently 0 male characters and 9 female characters in the game.
With 9 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch!
Not voting: sb, Fabloo, raikaria, banana spritzee, Yaersulf, Disquieted, BigBangMeteor, Daiya, PX

Time until night phase ends: [ Expired ]

[Disquieted]

Jailed Daiya. Lol, is that it?

Is the factional kill mandatory?

[Fabloo]

BBM state your results as well.

[Disquieted]

Also day 999 of chasing banana spritzee about his role etc etc

[BigBangMeteor]

Nobody visited PX

I mean even if we think scum idled their kill that's fine that's a day they didn't kill smartbomb.

[Fabloo]

Nobody visited PX

I mean even if we think scum idled their kill that's fine that's a day they didn't kill smartbomb.

That's funny. By N5 we have a passive that cause all abilities to target us to fail. Why did you get a result>

[Fabloo]

To be honest, this is stupid.

[Fabloo]

Why is the room suddenly so quiet?