ok this is sort of where i'm at on everyone right now.
strong townreads: fabloo, PX, polaris, NNR
Honestly I just can't see myself voting for polaris without some kind of role results or unless it's like, 3p lylo with me, him, and a mason left or something. his way of approaching the game has generally been good and even his non-content posts have a townie vibe to them.
if Fabloo/PX are survivor lovers I'm ok for blaming the loss on bad game design. 2p survivor lovers in a 15p game means that we're essentially in LYLO tomorrow and fire truck that.
I think serela summarized my feelings on NNR pretty well. i probably don't townread him quite as strongly as polaris but I don't want to have 10 tiers and it's close enough. also the stronger i townread him the more likely it is that he will be nightkilled, which is a plus because the gigantic all caps posts are annoying.
people not playing particularly well but who have done something I think is specifically townie: yaersulf, daiya, tom, nucleus
honestly my reads here are weakening a little because in the case of tom especially, the townie things they've done have been pretty long ago. after an ed1 where he was really active and his non-content came in a manner that seemed too hostile to be newbscum (sort of like Fabloo) he's sort of receded into coasting more and having a playstyle that I associate more with newbscum. the charts and stuff are nice and the effort is good, but content like that is relatively easy for scum to fake because it's factual and doesn't require faking a townie mindset. reading new players is Hard
I'm also weakening a bit on yaersulf but I still think d1 vanilla claims from people about to be lynched are town 90% of the time. scum just doesn't have an incentive to claim vanilla there, especially in a medium-sized game. odds are that whatever power role you make up won't be present in the game, and if it is, you force a counter-claim and then you have a new person to hook/kill. Also, something that's relatively easy to fake but only if he has a smart scumbuddy to tell him to do it, is him asking why PX/Fabloo weren't killed on N1.
I've spoken about daiya today. I will say that if yaersulf does flip scum, I would then strongly suspect daiya because the reason for townreading them is linked to yaersulf also being town.
also spoken about nucleus today. after thinking about it and reading their posts I put them back in this tier. there just isn't really anything specifically scummy they've done other than kind of coast a bunch.
you might notice that everyone in this tier is new. if i'm wrong on someone here it's probably either tom or nucleus.
gut townreads who have not done anything specifically townie: Serela
just spoke about this
lol inactive: Banana
imo Dormio should cajole a Banana who is more Serious to sub in here. if this slot doesn't start producing today, the vig should shoot them tonight. i really don't want to use a lynch on this slot given the extreme lack of interactions but honestly based on how few people I suspect I think there's a very strong chance this slot is scum. if this slot doesn't start producing and isn't vigged we should probably assume there either isn't a vig or the vig isn't listening to me (you fire trucker) and we should strongly consider lynching them tomorrow to get them out of the game. either that or dormio should modkill them for inactivity given that's in the rules (though inactivity modkills suck)
slight scumreads: raikaria, smartbomb
yeah I don't have any strong scumreads deal with it. also I got cut by raikaria voting me which I will address in a later post to prevent this post from being the Longest Post Ever
honestly a large part of this is just what's left over. one nice thing is that I think this works as a buddy pairing since I think smartbomb hasn't said much about raikaria and raikaria. raikaria has been vaguely suspicious of smartbomb but then also chainsaw defending him by attacking serela's vote on him?
I spoke about smartbomb recently and don't have anything more to add atm.
i've also analyzed raikaria's posts before the recent wall (whole post dedicated to that after this) something that pings me with raikaria is how many people he finds suspicious or not playing well? he says he finds almost everyone null to worse. that's a) obviously wrong, b) very different from how I'm reading people c) not exactly scummy but a trait scum often have because they want to leave as many people open for mislynches as possible.
also, despite him finding half the game suspicious he pretty much just votes newbs and then me. this case sure looks like "make sure BBM remains a viable lynch candidate" once NNR stopped actively suspecting me. i know this sounds arrogant of me (and tbh it is).
feeling about as good about this as i do about anything ##Vote: Raikaria THUNDERDOME LET'S GO BABY
