Right; so going back and looking at Nuxl to try and figure out who would target him. This is in reverse order; most recent stuff to least recent, because obviously the stuff that happened closer to his death is more relevant.
Serela would you do conq here
Would anyone else do conq here
First thing to note is that Nuxl wanted a Conq lynch LD3.
Neither of these wagons are good
Literally lmao
'These wagons' being Duskfall and Zwejd.
This over Duskfall? Why?
Oh boy deadlock
'This' being a Zwejd lynch, indicating his townread on Zwejd is stronger than his townread on Duskfall; despite feeling both are bad lynches.
Let's try something
##Vote: Zwerdijb
Who actually prefers this
That said he's one of the ones who starts the Zwerd wagon so now I'm confused?
i don't really want it to happen because i already said why so so many times but i haven't fact checked but still feel i'm correct here
Not enough is going to vote conq or sb here and this consolidation is so late to DL. Not voting zwer here myself unless it needs to be done which makes me think I'm deadlocking the vote elsewhere
Again; Nuxl re-iterates a willingless to go after Conq. There's also an expression of an SB lynch.
i dont really mega like the major two wagons but again hostage situation
conq or sb would be spicy for the purpose of "see who actually does it" but nobody will lol
Or maybe it's not a scumread?
we are not no lynching ever
i wanted to yolo vote conq or niek to see who'd take it but doesn't seem likely given current mood lmfao
Oddly SB isn't here, at some point the Yolo target changed from Neik to SB. Conq however is consistent.
Here's a sort of thought bubble thing for everybody and I hope someone makes sense out of this in my 3 AM deprived brain.
For scum, in a plurality game, the amount of people you need to convince is relatively low to push a lynch you want depending on the day. In this instance, the amount of "viable" lynches per day increases in comparison to a majority game where it seems like you need to make half the game remove the people you want.
I guess this suggests scum should be townreading players in question and then nightkilling them? So in this instance, I don't really know why scum!smartbomb goes and makes a case on Conq since it seems absolutely impossible for it to flip where there are easier routes available. I don't really know why o4rfish goes and sheeps the vote on Conq. It's so weird. Maybe the number is too high for it to succeed? I don't know why Niek voted Duskfall of all people, and Dan's vote isn't really doing anything given deadline is soon.
Wrt O4rfish, their thing to Abu seemed completely genuine and nobody got back to me if they could fake this emotion on page 8 in their scumgame , I think. But I can't tell if their posts are completely uncoachable anymore or if I'm just biting on the recent amount of casing by the people I actually do townread.
The votes being split is likely concerning. I kind of want to give in and vote dan, because his only streak of posts is because he's gotten pressure, but that feels incorrect...? Because the only resistance is Smartbomb...? honestly at this point I don't really give a damn anymore and I just want to see how people react.
##Vote: O4rfish. I even typed this out and it feels wrong. My vote is still malleable and I'll be here at deadline. Will vote Dan if I need to, possibly begrudgingly even do Conq.
OK; so everything above seems to be a reactiontest... but that might actually be important because the 'reaction' is Nuxl got killed. Also; the other bolded bit might be important. But this means I have to go back and see who expressed townreads on Prims and Nuxl which is uuuuuuugh.
just going to ignore people already confirmed/role confirmed alignment wise
zwer's early pages were why i townread him, lot of wish for him to jump in and start doing stuff. his reaction to dormio's thing on shadoweh on page 3 wrt overthinking was my exact reaction at the time. lot of weird logic that felt towny to me given i know a player who does this on my home site.
conq's presence on those pages were something i townread early but on a reread i'm whatever ebout it now
o4rfish's vote on me on page 8 uses disgustingly bad logic that i townread initially because sb said they were a kind of player who did this stuff pretty often but given their d2 i don't really know what my read on them is, it kind of fizzled out but i'm kind of like this for a lot of the game so far.
the anger felt genuine but i kind of want to ask other people if they think it could be fake in this instance.
intriguingly 1. their scumreads are all unaccurate (i'm kind of confident in my zwer read to say that) and 2. the only unknown in their townreads is conq
refa's page 8 is really good and felt familiar to danganronpa i played with a year ago. raikaria's page 8 i disagree with on the premise of meta but i think it's irrelevant at this point of time
until page 9: sb just played a scumgame on smogon where he kind of didn't really try and contributed more in terms of game theory and thread mechanics as opposed to actually presenting reads: in this game he's more right to the point and that should suggest he breaks town (or it's extremely good adaptation which well, this pl is probably a lot better so it'd make sense ig)
I feel like I should have thoughts on 12-14. I don't really have that. Serela's thing on shifting vote people noted seemed off but I didn't really get pinged one way or another for it. I think conq's reentrance post and queries was fine here and his persistent points of pressure felt ok. I don't know if conq is able to replicate this kind of stuff as scum. Can anybody with more experience playing with scum!conq enlighten me here?
#459 dusk was a good town ping, same with the other post he made about abu openwolfing later. forceful, cocky pressure and not being scared is a good town indicator for him.
ftr this is almost accurate enough where he's dmed me about how hard it is for him to read me like a month before this game started
#619 oarfish made me feel like it was genuine thought at the time so i didn't really want to touch it since then
dan's vote felt kind of strange, i also thought this about nnr haha so lol. on a reread conq's townread on me is kind of curious and i'm not exactly sure why he's having it. everybody jumping on abu's nuts on vig claim seems too good to be too (notably these 3)
i dont remember where it was but
@tommy have you ever done an ordered list like 654 before? as town. 722 is a really clean adaptation if he's scum.
#774 niek's vote is garbage i think i keep saying this
i kinda shared tommy's #797 at the time but was too scared to say it lmao, especially their string of posts on the page after were pretty curious
Zwer's #846 is strange as fire truck as scum to do especially because nobody else saw it but him.
Raik selfvote felt towny and would've been really ballsy as scum to do.
I actually expected Conq to be the nightkill D1 so was kind of surprised he wasn't. Prims wanted abu/niek/o4rfish/shadoweh/raik at the end of D1, notably did not townread SB but townleaned Dusk/Conq/Zwer. If both Dusk/Conq are scum seems kind of like a purposeless kill for them but I guess everybody townread both near the end of the day so I guess they didn't particularly care.
------ Day 2 ------
Something felt off about NNR and sb crossvoting then going to consolidate on o4rfish? I didn't think sb's mistake looked scummy but I don't understand why he dropped his entire vote with it.
Refa's points of pressure are good here and only really solidifies my read here.
#1069 @conq did you stop townreading me after D1? what happened to your high confidence townread -> solving my slot?
SB #1072 empower in a noc game lol
tommy #1079 I don't think I'm going to play a NOC game for a while so I'll just reveal my cards now- what I meant on my personal tell during later D2: scum!duskfall never pushes people for slips on smogon. On smogon he's tried to push someone for perspective slips or other wording slips in 3 different town games and 1 jester game but has never done stuff like that as scum. He's been defensive about slips as scum but he's never used it as a point of pressure. On mafia451, he's tried to push people on slips twice as town, and 0 as scum.
Niek #1153: very strange, he keeps entering with unusual conclusions since nobody knows where he's getting his introductions from u know
sb #1253: agree with what i said regarding the NK from shadoweh, as if it's acting under assumption shadoweh had control of that kill which is... likely not true given their thread equity post d1?
my reaction to serela #1400: i don't mind revealing my cards here too. i thought Serela was signaling that them and niek were masons and i think only Fabloo caught onto that given their discussion to me on the next page. I don't think this means anything in particular but the wagon reactively seemed genuine and so did Serela's reaction a tad.
Can't really parse this eod all too well but AD's entrance was strange to me
Fabloo was keen on pushing Conq/Dusk/NNR/AD slots early D2 and thought that Dusk was leading wagon. I don't really think Conq and Dusk are ever partners here, seems unnecessary for Conq to risk Dusk in this position at the end of D2 (+ certain D1 interactions that pinged me otherwise).
Refa slot/Zwer: pretty confident townreads here and don't really think I'm smoked.
Raikaria is probably town based on self vote:(even if the self vote didn't really matter imo, the tone behind it felt fairly genuine in addition to their subsequent anger following various cases. there was an instance in a game a couple years back where they self voted for the sake of town as well which is why i asked about meta)
I kind of skipped over Serela's posts the most this game and I don't know why. Don't really scumread them and am inclined to sheep Prims' townread on them. Biggest thing was their presence for the shadoweh swap which felt good at heart but I doubt that's enough. Will do a more cursory look when my eyes aren't killing me, this is the last thing I typed.
O4rfish's posts have changed every day which seems absolutely impossible to work with in a scumteam, but I guess that all that matters for their slot is really their vote of which uh, they've hit rown both times, but at least their D2 vote was consistent? Abu vote kind of makes sense even though it wasn't justified- in all actuality their tone to abu telling him to actually do some strawberries to save his own life felt genuine in addition to their anger D1. Though I think their slot is constantly being scrutinized which almost makes me feel like I'm wrong somewhere in making this read. I think them getting an early wagon from two crossvoting slots on d2 was strange but given the proceeding claims I guess I can't really look into it all that much. Shame NNR is actually conf mainly because we can't really get sb's read on why exactly he consolidated with someone he just cased on the previous page? If their tone is fakable it makes the slot worse but I'm so fuzzy here. btw there was a reason I wanted to sheep Dormio but it's not safe to talk about it
sb's posts have felt fine in the sense that there's a notable difference between the last scumgame they played on smogon and this one in regards to approaching the main points at hand + pointing out people. There are numerous applications of incorrect logic (namely D2: empower fear, shadoweh dictating NK, entire interaction with NNR's slot on the first few pages) that are a tad awkward and I still can't really bring it within me to townread him. Maybe it's because he's felt toneless and maybe that's a norm thing for him. Dunno
i love tommy but i think i'm losing faith in what he's doing but i think his aggression + slip thing i mentioned earlier should point to his favor even though i don't really have the handgun apricity/hal to back me up here, so i'm more of a mic piece that isn't connected to a speaker. a little frozen in how to verbalize any confidence here in addition that i don't exactly want to handwave any development on him. gun to head think i should be townreading him here though or at least he's out of poe vicinity but there's a nonzero chance i'm wrong
i townread conq d1 bc of his slot pressure in addition to his brazy gambit d2, but maybe it's because i'm inspired by the recent case that there are a few oddities: notably his read on me circulated between d1 and d2 and not exactly sure why, and Fabloo did kind of want them offed which is sort of telling given I expected him to be in NK contention during both days(maybe less so D2). His reaction to Raikaria today felt a bit strange too- don't know why anyone would reconsider raik ever. The gambit in general probably doesn't mean much if there's no risk to outing it but at the time I liked it. I don't hate his posts and his pressure Felt good but I think I'm open to consider a point of reevaluation.
Niek has noticable logic jumps that make me a bit eerie around this slot since it's hard to know how exactly he got to the points he did and I don't know if he just doesn't know himself or doesn't care to show up in thread and explain it...? Or is too stiff to not get caught out? I'm not sure.
Dan I kind of skipped over his posts during D1 for the most part. His ISO doesn't really strike me as anything and I was kind of bothered by his vote on Abu D1. I have no idea what to make of his progression because it seems like his entrances on prior days are less cohesive than today; and his final vote on both days seem to differ from what he wants to do early on in the day, and while I can say it's bad progression it's harder to tell because he just isn't consistently here to update his reads live. His recent post disputing the modspew didn't feel like it produced cohesive thought and I don't know what to make of it considering it seems like his play here is so much different than on 451 (site cultures, I guess). Potential confbias answer is expanding the lynch pool rofl
this is not ordered and is more like a thought dump
Maybe the mentality between consolidating wagons is too dangerous and no idea how to oppose it. Still wish we had plur though xD
It's funny that I typed all this and I still want to do Niek most of all. Maybe there's something wrong with me.
'Ere we go.
Nuxl actually doesn't give any outright scumreads; but his worst reads seem to be
Neik; O4rfish; Conq and SB. He also points out that Fabloo was pushing Conq somewhat; and Prims was pushing
Neik.
So we have 2 people who were pressuring Conq and Neik as nightkills.
---
My idea is that for Nuxl to have been the nightkill over Myself/Dormio/NNR/O4rfish/Serela [Barring the Dormio/NNR/O4rfish/Serela supergambit scumteam]; the Mafia would have to have felt threatened by Nuxl. Which means the mafia would have to include at least one of Nuxl's worse reads.
Which seems to be Neik/Conq/SB.
I feel we should be looking rather strongly among these three at this point. Considering I already had somewhat of a scumread on Conq [See: D3]
##Unvote
##Vote: Conqueror
