Neo Forum Mafia - Game Over

[O4rfish]

Raikaria - I think the d1 interactions between Conq and Duskfall are suspicious.  Do you agree?

Serela - yes! What was that game called?

[sb]

Raikaria - I think the d1 interactions between Conq and Duskfall are suspicious.  Do you agree?

Serela - yes! What was that game called?

Am I invisible? Hello?

[sb]

People ignoring my posts is starting to feel like a running joke but come on guys I don't write them for no reason >.>

I don't like Oarfish's turnabout on Conq. Going from no vote all day to sheeping smartbomb on a former townread is nasty, and considering how frozen Oarfish has been acting throughout the phase I can see them wanting to use someone else's case so that they don't have to defend the logic themselves.

Dan and Niek both coming out of nowhere to vote Duskfall is kinda interesting though when neither really has much of a case beyond what they posted before. Dan, what do you think of Duskfall's most recent posts? Who would you be voting for if not for Duskfall and why? I'd actually like to extend this question to Niek too.

I think Kilga's last post makes the Duskfall modspew thing ambiguous. I think saying "I would vote SB or Dan today because I've townread everyone else" is lazy because 1) You're obviously wrong on at least two townreads 2) This is a great way to avoid being held accountable for anything? I'd expect Duskfall here to actually be looking into our posts, especially because I'm voting for Dan, but I think the votes here right now are dubious and want Dan and Niek to explain their stances.

Conq is in this weird place now where smartbomb's case is genuinely good and there are some oddities (see my other recent posts) but overall his gameplay is strong in a way that I just can't feel confident about lynching it. It feels like he's genuinely frustrated with the game and that makes sense after Shadoweh flipped town for Conq here I think? It looks like he genuinely beleives in his defense which is a point in his favour and I can't reconcile my read on him properly. I'm kind of uncomfortable but not willing to lynch here today I think.

In conclusion? fire truck mafia honestly. I still think in spite of Duskfall weirdness that Dan is the most revealing lynch with a good chance of flipping scum. Oarfish lynch is still good, Conq and Duskfall are weird question marks and Niek is a scummier question mark.

[Niektory]

Is anyone having fun

Define "fun".

The bitter end comment has me kind of confused because you're not even being voted afaik?

That was maybe premature but town in general and me in particular don't seem to be doing all that well.

Do you think Oarfish's posts are more likely to be scum or not? I can't tell from your post if you're just nullreading them after saying that.

It reads like he's distancing himself from what he posts so maybe slightly scummy? But mostly I just though they were funny.

[O4rfish]

If I'm getting major pushback on a read of mine from people I don't necessarily think are mafia, I'll usually drop it.
Here's my most recent town game where you can see this.
https://forums.serenesforest.net/index.php?/topic/83239-twitch-plays-pokemon-mafia-noc15pgame-over-town-wins/
I got into a slapfight with refa and then I did a 180 on him later because refa was getting no traction.

His quote from that game:
"Look, I'm not asking you to agree with me about my approach or my opinions - I can be wrong! If you think I'm right about what I said about Refa/Elemina, then do your reads change because of that? That's what I want to know. Is joining the Evan wagon because he had more votes scummy now that we know both the D1 wagons were town?"

That sounds a lot different to me.

[O4rfish]

This was supposed to go before that.
Sorry, not sure why I missed that post sb. 

My thoughts on Conq's latest posts:

Mhmm. I'm not you though. I already tried the torches and pitchforks approach with Shadoweh. Nothing I said about duskfall has really changed but if I was wrong about Shadoweh for so long I have to accept the possibility that I was also wrong elsewhere. I'm also alive for a reason and it's probably because my reads are off.

He was wrong about Shadoweh, therefore he might also be wrong about Duskfall.  But Conq changing his mind about lynching Shadoweh led to Shadoweh almost surviving the day. 

[O4rfish]

For reference, here is what Conq sounds like as scum:
"Started by rereading CF7. Going to stand by my original point that if he were mafia, then he would have made some sort of claim before disappearing at the end of the day; given the playerlist any buddy would have coached him to do the same. His willingness to be lynched given his supposed antitown role looks genuine enough that I don't think it's coming from mafia making a last ditch gambit (which would be a terrible gambit anyway). At worst he's SK who gave up (jumping to the conclusion that Raikaria is SK instead of scum, initial defensiveness with the Raikaria vote, general weirness) but he's not group scum at least imo so not really interested in him. People who still want to lynch CF7 tomorrow should respond to why they think this is invalid.

Dormio is a bit harder. The thing that stuck out the most to me about Dormio was actually his response to me when I asked him what I thought about Raikaria's claim, which was "Read the claim, but I don't really know what to make of it," which is a terrible response since it was a provable claim and at least partially confirmed by Raikaria giving me nighttalk. But it doesn't really make sense for him to say that as scum though when he can easily answer my query with "I don't believe it because I think he's scum" or something to that effect and sound more "logical" and "convinced of his case". The other thing that stuck out to me upon reread was the huge walls on Serela and CF7 that come down to "null" and "not that interesting," respectively. But again, what's the point of posting a huge wall that doesn't come to a conclusion if you've already put out an extensive case on someone? It only draws negative attention to you and it comes down to a lot of work for nothing in terms of cred. I looked through some meta of town Dormio and scum Dormio on the Raikaria case, and Dormio putting this much effort into his cases is probably town Dormio (this game vs example one, example two, example three)
Look at his play in Imp Mafia and NHK Mafia (his most recent scum games) where all he did was hard bus his buddies and when he made cases they were short and pretty barebones. (stuff like this) The difference is pretty stark. So yeah, I think Dormio is probably town, too.

NNR is also kinda tricky. The running updates don't do anything for me (seriously people shouldn't post like that) but I think the early Prims vote here is probably coming from a frustrated town!NNR especially given the context with Prims pushing NNR. Compare that to his reaction in DEFCON Mafia. It's mostly his tone; it's more fluid (not sure if this is the right word?) when he's town and the anger at Prims feels less manufactured (in the scumpost I linked, he sounds more annoyed at huhwhat's attitude than seriously considering the idea of scum!what as in the first post I linked). This is kinda a minor point, but aside from that I also have a general feeling about NNR and he looks decently town imo. I think I've had a decent track record reading him recently anyways."

[O4rfish]

The takeaway is that Conq can be the most towny-sounding person in the game even when he's scum.  This is why I had a strong townread on him, especially after reading his iso. 

[Serela]

this

might actually be a pretty good observation, o4rfish

I mean, I did something a lot earlier in the day that suggested i should look at the possibility of conq scum, whatever it was

[Disquieted]

should I post or not bother until I can respond to conqueror

cause I have thoughts about some of the other posts but being here while deliberately ignoring what conqueror's saying is probably badfeels for him

[Conqueror]

go ahead and post the other stuff you want to say. there's stuff i want to reply to as well but i haven't gotten to it yet so it's just better that you just post.

[Conqueror]

eh i will say real quickly that i havent played any game like i did in mirai nikki in a long time! that was when i still made detailed cases on people; i dont do that anymore as any alignment.

[Disquieted]

mm. Something to drop in your inbox actually.

The hell is oarfish doing lol. I don't actually... know what his plan was before this but this is a lot of confidence that I haven't seen before.

[Conqueror]

oarfish has always been somewhat of a confident player with unique perspectives. it's why i haven't really tried to read him and why i dont really buy much into "traditional" cases on him. granted i don't think i've ever seen oarfish scum.

[Conqueror]

maybe confidence isnt the right word im looking for.

[Kilgamayan]

Vote Count 3.4

ActionDan (Rinnosuke Morichika) (3): sb, Serela, NekoNekoRex
O4rfish (Rumia) (2): Dormio Ergo Sum, Raikaria
Conqueror (Tenshi Hinanawi) (2): Raikaria, Disquieted, O4rfish
Duskfall98 (Shinki) (2): ActionDan, Niektory
Serela (Koishi Komeiji) (1): Raikaria, Duskfall98, zwerdjib
sb (Sanae Kochiya) (0): Disquieted
Dormio (Ran Yakumo) (0):
Raikaria (Sunny Milk) (0):
zwerdjib (Yuyuko Saigyouji) (0):
Disquieted (Reimu Hakurei) (0):
NekoNekoRex (Chen) (0):
Nuxl (Youki Konpaku) (0):
Niektory (Yukari Yakumo) (0):

Not voting (3): Conqueror, Nuxl, zwerdjib

with 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. You have 20 hours remaining.

NekoNekoRex has been prodded for inactivity.

[zwerdjib]

dude i am reading oarfish long posts but i am not procrssing and i think i genuinely have a lazy brain

help

[Conqueror]

alright, hammering out a few quick responses before bed

@Conq The voteswitches here, here and here are what I'm talking about. I didn't see why you'd vote Niek to try and make them post and just... not comment about Niek posting right after you voted them (weird circumstance) when you unvoted to go back to Shadoweh. I know that I asked you about this before and you just said they were fine but... Idk, I figured there would be something more to it. Changing to vote Duskfall over Shadoweh again a few hours later felt better justified, but also really scattered? Like you didn't care that much where your vote actually was.

i'm going to assume the third link is to my duskfall vote. i feel like i've already gone through all these already. vote on niek was to start a wagon for consolidation since i didn't townread him. then i switched back to shadoweh once everyone moved there. I didn't comment on the new niek post because my impression of it was "sure whatever" and i was moving off him anyway. like, what more would i say about it? i guess i could have said something like "oh niek is looking better now" but iirc my impression at the time was something "okay this is adequate enough i guess, and it's unlikely this will happen over shadoweh now so we'll have future days to look at it." would have been a lot of words to say nothing so i just didn't. if i didnt care where my vote was i would have stayed on shadoweh lol. i moved to duskfall because i like playing with shadoweh and i wanted to see where that would go (and it's not like i had a townread on duskfall!), with the added bonus of trying and getting shadoweh back into the game instead of being defeatist if she was town (which ended up being the case).

Also I don't think you'd take a case you disagree with lying down but honestly I was starting to get the same vibes I did from you in TPP where you thunderdomed the fire truck out of me and Refa and was really confused because it seemed out of place. Still am confused, kinda. I don't get that vibe from your latest posts though and I'm not sure what that means?

i have no idea what you're talking about here. i haven't really reached thunderdome level with anyone in this game (duskfall is the closest i guess but in TPP I pulled out all the stops to case refa because i was so mad). you're right that vibe isnt here though because when i joined TPP i was playing my first mafia game in something like 4 years and wanted to scratch the mafia itch. this game is more like a swan song. what were you expecting, exactly? what are you confused about?

Wrt Execution : "I'm still sorting my reads on other players out so don't rush hammer yet" or something other than just "yeah, don't hammer guys even though Shadoweh is definitely absolutely scum".

it was a spur of the moment thing and it didn't cross my mind to say something different at the time. Like, in retrospect i could have done better but this is the first time I've done it. So.

Conq is in this weird place now where smartbomb's case is genuinely good and there are some oddities (see my other recent posts) but overall his gameplay is strong in a way that I just can't feel confident about lynching it. It feels like he's genuinely frustrated with the game and that makes sense after Shadoweh flipped town for Conq here I think? It looks like he genuinely beleives in his defense which is a point in his favour and I can't reconcile my read on him properly. I'm kind of uncomfortable but not willing to lynch here today I think.

okay, no. i can understand why people would like smartbomb's case in a vacuum but a lot of the things he points out as things that don't make sense for town!me to do are things i squarely do as town. can you point out which parts of his case were compelling to you?

I still think in spite of Duskfall weirdness that Dan is the most revealing lynch with a good chance of flipping scum.

i think i favor a dan lynch over duskfall myself but what exactly is more revealing about a dan lynch? duskfall lynch at least resolves the mystery of how we look at d2 if he flips scum (although not so much if he flips town)

[Conqueror]

The post you quoted seems ok to me. The line "Vigging dusk does not make me less inclined to lynch you" is the only thing I'd find fault with since I don't know why anyone would care if dusk was vigged there unless Conq thought Dusk was town.

I did on d1, yeah. Also I appreciate the defense, Dan but it kinda feels like you just tried to crawl up my ace of spades with that entire post. What have been your thoughts on me outside of smartbomb's post on me?

[Conqueror]

tommy, i know you give about as many strawberriess about this game as i do right now, but where do you want to actually go? serela isnt going to be lynched

[Conqueror]

His quote from that game:
"Look, I'm not asking you to agree with me about my approach or my opinions - I can be wrong! If you think I'm right about what I said about Refa/Elemina, then do your reads change because of that? That's what I want to know. Is joining the Evan wagon because he had more votes scummy now that we know both the D1 wagons were town?"

That sounds a lot different to me.

linking the post you're referring to for context
https://forums.serenesforest.net/index.php?/topic/83239-twitch-plays-pokemon-mafia-noc15pgame-over-town-wins/page/20/&tab=comments#comment-5218171
that was me trying to draw content out of a newbie. if the tone there is more optimistic it's because it is; i thought i had caught refa and kts in a wild gambit with how refa responded to shinori's cop claim. this was also when i thought mafia might be fun again, i have no idea how iris dragged me into it.

My thoughts on Conq's latest posts: He was wrong about Shadoweh, therefore he might also be wrong about Duskfall.  But Conq changing his mind about lynching Shadoweh led to Shadoweh almost surviving the day.

can you complete this thought? i think you're missing a conclusion at the end, or maybe i misread something.

zeep what are you even doing

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

define Question20
{
        So what's the argument against an O4rfish lynch anyway?
}
query (Playerbase)
{
        ask (Question20)
        return (Opinions)
}

[Nuxl]

sorry, i'm so demotivated

@Conq do you have a read on smartbomb/refa slot given their case?

@whoever said this I think o4rfish, the modpost was on D2 and on not the first VC so no Abu cannot have asked

How are o4rfish's posts so different every day I do not understand lmao. They asked me a few questions earlier but never really followed up on them and their walls/questions are so different and can't tell if it's natural.

Niek is producing actual content which is again, wildly different from his prior days. But all he produces really is a read on me that most people share and a vote on tommy which seems so strange actually

it's impossible to concretely read slots like these lmfao

Dan producing content today after getting 3 votes is probably the most notable thing about today. The fact that smartbomb is the only one defending them really here is kind of ominous but I can't really blame people for voting them?

Consequently, nobody's really biting on the Conq case and can't tell if that's because of resistance or just people unwilling to drop their prior read.

Won't be voting on Duskfall or even Serela today but jsuk tommy you're not actually confspewed LMAO.

(i have typed votes for the top two wagons and repeatedly deleted them and swapped between them)

[raikaria]

Raikaria - I think the d1 interactions between Conq and Duskfall are suspicious.  Do you agree?

What I find most concerning about those interactions is this post:

https://www.shrinemaiden.com/index.php?topic=84.msg1241#msg1241

Where Duskfall basically just intends to sheep Conq.

Also looking on it Conq is rather defensive towards a Duskfall lynch, just as he seemed somewhat defensive to an O4rfish lynch ED3.

Also looking back on D1 I see more O4rfish praise of Conq. It's really quite weird.

Speaking of D1 interactions:

Yeah my rvs vote is basically a non-vote and I'm not -really- seeing anything else (although there's some people i am waiting to see do their followups) so I probably should go ahead and

##Unvote:Abu
##Vote:Raikaria

NNR and Duskfall effectively haven't posted at all. Raikaria -has- made posts, and has responded to other players, so there's actually something there to place judgment on.

Serela's ED1 vote on me and his 'case' [Lurker Bad]. Interestingly it's followed up by this:

##unvote
##vote raikaria
yeah im sheeping serela :o

shadoweh should still pretend my vote is on her but i wanted to try this before i sleep

Sheeping someone who basically doesn't have a case? And from all the prior posts and analysis there's nothing better? I get he explains it as a 'pressure to post' thing later but I'm pretty sure I'd stated I had low availability.

I find this a little weird too.

---

Argh you know what I think I'm going back to Serela. O4rfish's Conq vote may be just to throw me off the scent and I'm still not impressed by O4rfish; but there's this post from Serela:

HEY I LYNCHED HIM TOO OK

also yes dan my misery is real, every time i reread anyone in this game the green indicators of townie townness jump out everywhere, the way dusk thinks, nuxl's meta reads on him, it just doesn't seem scum at all even though his actual play seems sort of scummy, niektory being confused d1 because he was assuming from the start that scum did not have daytalk so he didn't know how anyone could be getting coached by their buddies, rai's high effort play with big cases and rereads and connections over multiple players (even if I'M SORRY I REALLY DON'T AGREE WITH THEM), refa's intense curiosity and questioning of everyone and everything, dorms and nnr are masons, and sb/conq just look strongly and consistently town imo, esp. conq today

The tl;dr: 'I can't find scum in anyone who's actually posting at all'

There's nothing scummy enough for you to make any case at all on anyone who's actually posting? For the entire 3 days? Because all you've done is go for easy lurker lynches.

Also Dormio and NNR are claimed Masons, not confirmed Masons.

Also I think it's quite important to note that in this townread spiel from Serela; he doesn't mention Zwerdjib; O4rfish or Duskfall [Who is; you know, a pretty major wagon right now and can in no way be called a lurker]

So does Serela not Townread them? Does Serela 'townread' them but not feel able to explain why like everyone else? Does Serela scumread them but can't be asked to case them over just going for lurkers?

##Unvote
##Vote: Serela

--

define Question20
{
        So what's the argument against an O4rfish lynch anyway?
}
query (Playerbase)
{
        ask (Question20)
        return (Opinions)
}

Honestly unless I'm convinced otherwise I'm constantly tossing up the merits of O4rfish and Serela lynches as a priority.

[raikaria]

Also Dormio and NNR are claimed Masons, not confirmed Masons.

Just to stress this point:

Myself; Dormio and NNR are not confirmed Town. Do not take us being town as gospel. As multiple people have said; my LD1 selfvote could have been some crazy gambit; and Dormio/NNR could be lying about being Masons and just be scumbuds [The odds of this increase the longer they remain alive too; because you'd think scum would target 'semi-clears']

[Nuxl]

Here's a sort of thought bubble thing for everybody and I hope someone makes sense out of this in my 3 AM deprived brain.

For scum, in a plurality game, the amount of people you need to convince is relatively low to push a lynch you want depending on the day. In this instance, the amount of "viable" lynches per day increases in comparison to a majority game where it seems like you need to make half the game remove the people you want.

I guess this suggests scum should be townreading players in question and then nightkilling them? So in this instance, I don't really know why scum!smartbomb goes and makes a case on Conq since it seems absolutely impossible for it to flip where there are easier routes available. I don't really know why o4rfish goes and sheeps the vote on Conq. It's so weird. Maybe the number is too high for it to succeed? I don't know why Niek voted Duskfall of all people, and Dan's vote isn't really doing anything given deadline is soon.

Wrt O4rfish, their thing to Abu seemed completely genuine and nobody got back to me if they could fake this emotion on page 8 in their scumgame , I think. But I can't tell if their posts are completely uncoachable anymore or if I'm just biting on the recent amount of casing by the people I actually do townread.

The votes being split is likely concerning. I kind of want to give in and vote dan, because his only streak of posts is because he's gotten pressure, but that feels incorrect...? Because the only resistance is Smartbomb...? honestly at this point I don't really give a damn anymore and I just want to see how people react.

##Vote: O4rfish. I even typed this out and it feels wrong. My vote is still malleable and I'll be here at deadline. Will vote Dan if I need to, possibly begrudgingly even do Conq.

[Nuxl]

(and if we somehow CFD to Niek I'll vote there too)

[Disquieted]

Crashing. Day was hard.

I don't know whether I have the time to concentrate on the multitude of walls right now.

[Nuxl]

@raikaria Can you specifically look at page 7-8 and tell me what you read?

(also it doesn't seem like anybody else is actually voting Conq so I don't think o4r's vote actually matters)

[Disquieted]

Here's the deal just as a flat thing and not having really read any of the past two pages, cause either way they're extremely dense.

sb/Conqueror/Oarfish are circling this region of like posting a lot of thoughts I'm sure but. They're not pushing anywhere. They're not moving anywhere. Like Conqueror gets a pass cause he definitely has been pushing but his focus has been super super narrow, and he's not currently voting, which probably speaks to itself.

sb has dropped his ActionDan vote and then like... I don't know what's going on after that. The ActionDan vote was a feeler I think and he's posted a bunch of words that sound nice but if he's going to like just assess wagons every day he's really playing like a passenger and keeping his head above water. That's not OK.

Oarfish suddenly jumps on this Conq case. I have more words on this, give me a minute.