Neo Forum Mafia - Game Over

[O4rfish]

i'm desperate but not a scumbag.

This doesn't sound right. Why would town Conq be desperate right now?
He lists 5 players he's willing to lynch, including sb and Zwerdjib. It should be easy for Conq to enhance the case other people have made against one or both of them. Yet the only player he makes a case for is Disquieted - and ignoring Refa for some reason.
If there's some good-player logic to this, I obviously don't see it.

[Conqueror]

bro I am straight up not having a good time.

This doesn't sound right. Why would town Conq be desperate right now?

Desperate because people are already writing me off as scum! Feels like anything I say at this point is pointless until I flip so I'm just trying to set up so people can read what I've said after that happens.
I stopped wanting to play the game on d3, I've already been through this. It's not complacency or whatever, it was just me realizing that I don't want to play mafia anymore and I don't find it fun. I haven't done a single reread since then and have only been skimming for the most part.

The case against zeep has already been made, he hasn't done anything for a while. Nothing more to be said. Would be fine with a lynch there.
I don't have a proper case against sb but I didn't like how he was piggybacking off smartbomb's case on me yesterday to throw shade at me. He's disappeared completely today though so I'm taking that as him giving up.

Refa is a good player. I thought they were town early on. I'm considering that I was probably wrong there. People are reconsidering me in the same way. I think smartbomb's push toward me is scummy. That's really the gist of it.

NNR I actually appreciate you making a case, thank you.

##unvote
##vote: sb

fine, if we're not lynching me then lets do this.

[Conqueror]

hmm i was going to respond to nnr but i mean there's nothing i can really say to that other than "that's not what I was doing." it's a decent enough narrative though ill give you that. i didnt actually expect you to post anything so again thanks for posting it.

His d2 play feels stilted (the PR gambit and sudden switch off Shadoweh), but it finally crumbles out from under his feet when you realize he was laying the tracks towards townies no matter what.

btw i've seen a dozen theories about why i switched off shadoweh d2 and you're all wrong. i switched off shadoweh d2 because i like playing with shadoweh so i was willing to give her another chance after she showed up.

What's very interesting is that despite the fact that zgowkfmsjajgktkwkcng has had loads of criticism lobbied against him every single day, neither Conq nor sb has been willing to vote him even once

actually you know what? I'll take your bait

##unvote
##vote: zwerdjib
your move, come and join me

[NekoNekoRex]

I'm sorry Conq, but I don't think it's even remotely viable that smartbomb can be scum. A scum smartbomb has absolutely nothing to gain by pushing a lynch on you. He would be far, far better off doing exactly what you have, that is to say, absolutely nothing.

The only reason I or probably most of town even considered voting you or sb is because he's actually pushing it, because otherwise I'd be tunneling Serela or zj5jnewj-t123jt really damn hard. Hell, you and sb can more than stand to lynch him too, he's done nothing all game and I'd have considered him the token scum sacrificial bus.

E: You're proving my point, conq.

[NekoNekoRex]

What's your game plan after lynching sb and Zork II: The Wizard of Frobozz? You're going to run out of friends, and there'll still be two lynches left to suffer through after that?

[Conqueror]

I'm sorry Conq, but I don't think it's even remotely viable that smartbomb can be scum. A scum smartbomb has absolutely nothing to gain by pushing a lynch on you. He would be far, far better off doing exactly what you have, that is to say, absolutely nothing.

The only reason I or probably most of town even considered voting you or sb is because he's actually pushing it, because otherwise I'd be tunneling Serela or zj5jnewj-t123jt really damn hard. Hell, you and sb can more than stand to lynch him too, he's done nothing all game and I'd have considered him the token scum sacrificial bus.

E: You're proving my point, conq.

By that metric a scum!me has nothing to gain from trying to push a lynch on smartbomb. Scum push whoever they want to get through the game, whether to protect their buddies or just get another valuable mislynch. Lets say smartbomb is scum with sb and two lurkers, let's say zeep and dan for the sake of this argument. The lynch was barreling towards dan on d3 so he tried to get a wagon on me instead while getting in some distancing with sb. Not really an impossible concept.

Doing absolutely nothing gets you lynched, there's no scum benefit it in because you cede control of the lynch and people don't town read you, and on top of that people really like lynching people who aren't there and talking.

Damn, feels bad I don't get any credit for my Serela defense. Look, pushing lynches isn't inherently townie, or else i should get 1 million town points for pushing Shadoweh. If sb flips scum here I'd be wary of the complete lack of resistance he put up here. Why isn't he putting up any fight against smartbomb?

If you think I'm scum bussing zeep then vote him with me.

[Conqueror]

What's your game plan after lynching sb and Zork II: The Wizard of Frobozz? You're going to run out of friends, and there'll still be two lynches left to suffer through after that?

I mean, assuming those two flip scum, I'm still pretty sure it's smartbomb + 1. Not sure who the last would be (presumably dan or niek, either works nicely), but re:smartbomb - that's why I wanted that resolved today. Everyone who takes his side over me can lynch me today and then you know where to go tomorrow. We're going to have to get to this anyway.

[Conqueror]

We're going to have to get to this anyway.

And it's better to do that now while more townies are still alive.

[NekoNekoRex]

I'd rather lynch sb though. Assuming he's scum (and I find that hard to doubt), there's a lot more I can actually assume about the gamestate given where his pressure's been throughout the game, like more aggressively clearing Oarfish (and by extension, Serela), for instance. Zoinks Scoob has nothing to reveal with a lynch, and if he does turn out town then we're in hot water LYLO no better off than we were here today.

[NekoNekoRex]

Serela is hardly difficult to defend. It's Serela, his alignment was clear as crystal as early as D1

[Conqueror]

Okay, I guess there is a world where smartbomb isn't scum. That's exactly sb/zeep/niek/dan with other tinpot possibilities in the air.

But if he is town I want him to eat egg on face and I'd rather it not be in lylo. Yes, I'm petty like that.

cut:
zzz sure
##unvote
##vote: sb

m8 weren't you suspecting him past d1 or was that someone else.

[Conqueror]

if zeep is actually town i'll apologize for inviting him to this game, i didn't expect him to actually full flake. if he's scum then lol.

[NekoNekoRex]

kinda glad scum is actually motivated to snipe Serela now because he was set to fulfill the Grand Serela Destiny of throwing the game at LYLO

[NekoNekoRex]

I suspected him on D1, and strongly into D2 but lost interest due to being unable to keep up with the game and went to oarfish (who hadn't changed) instead. Kinda fell off the radar at that point because I was still interested in tunneling Oarfish, Duskfall became my alt wagon (fire truck smogon players), and... that ended up extending into d3 (with Dan and Zerkrom becoming much more lucrative lynches because they weren't playing)

[zwerdjib]

listen, your numerous names for me are interesting, but i only have one

and also i am extremely demotivated to do anything right now. i might post tomorrow but im not making promises because irl and mafia and arghhhtjrjekemspas and its all coalesced into a beam shot into my brain that makes me want to do literally nothing and the cycle becomes doing nothing > being bored > too demotivated to do anything > doing nothing

[zwerdjib]

cough

anyway, thats my day

and im not going to sub out because i feel like i still owe you guys my best effort, so im going to try and actually scumhunt

not trying would be a hypocritical thing to do considering my d1 speech

[NekoNekoRex]

listen, your numerous names for me are interesting, but i only have one

I can't be arsed to remember how to spell gibberish names Invader Zim, sorry.

[Disquieted]

I don't have anything to add.

Maybe I'll go do some work tonight.

OK I have one thing. Zwerdjib you're going to get lynched if you keep this up.

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

define Statement121
{
        Just chiming in to say that I don't mind a zwerdjib lynch.
}
query (Playerlist)
{
        ask (Statement121)
}

[Disquieted]

Alright. Here's what I'm thinking.

I have words about sb but they should wait for four hours when he should be next online. I don't have any words for Conqueror that I haven't already expressed, and I'm not going to go into circles, cause it's clearly not helping me townread him. Conqueror can do what he wants.

Dormio and NNR are masons.

Oarfish is cleared unless they're with exactly Serela.

Serela I find really hard to see as scum flat-out ignoring the claim. Taking the claim into account, still don't see it. Serela I think is a time bomb mechanically anyways, and there is always other mafia to lynch even if Serela's scum

So that's the starting point.

Dormio
NNR
Oarfish
Serela

Conqueror
sb

Niektory
ActionDan
zwerdjib
raikaria


Not ordered. But there are at least two scum in here. If not more. If Conq can get one thing right it's mechanics, and there are four scum, likely.

We have two mislynches left, I believe, assuming nothing strange happens. It's kind of important to get this right cause while this process of elimination sounds easy enough, we lynch the two townies here and we lose.

Even ignoring the bias I have around Conqueror and sb, we need to identify exactly one townie here to win. To people outside of this pool, that's two.

There's an easy way to work through this, and it's very simple - we have to agree on Raikaria's alignment. So. I guess that's what I'm going to do with the time I have. If I feel up to it I'm going to try and convince y'all that Niektory is town, but that's really hard even with the conviction I have.

Or you know I could try and be a giant ego nerd and just tell all of you I'm so obviously town so that's an obvious clear. But I think after Duskfall we've had enough of that.

[Disquieted]

Just to stress this point:

Myself; Dormio and NNR are not confirmed Town. Do not take us being town as gospel. As multiple people have said; my LD1 selfvote could have been some crazy gambit; and Dormio/NNR could be lying about being Masons and just be scumbuds [The odds of this increase the longer they remain alive too; because you'd think scum would target 'semi-clears']

that was easy lol

I was slightly concerned about raikaria pushing on Serela but he really isn't today. This is fine.

He hasn't been pushing inside of the above recently, which is problematic, but he has been pushing Conqueror recently. It's not a push with legs though, and it's something you can twist around to being aligned with each other (more shade than anything). If Conqueror is by some stretch of the imagination town this is a very problematic series of pushes period.

But there's a significant tonal front that doesn't really come from scum. And you need to get around the fact that yes, raikaria self-voted at EOD1 in what must be a ridiculous gambit either way.

If you have anything to say against this, you should probably do so and put this to rest. There are problems.

[Disquieted]

##Unvote: Duskfall98
##Vote: Serela

JUST SAY IT. If you're town can you even guarantee you'll be alive tomorrow?
Yes.

@others: How could it happen? Is it likely given

This interaction around Serela's claim is pretty kneejerk and more often comes from town than not. If this is the appropriate scum reaction to a claim, with Niektory, someone whose first game must be more than above and beyond than anything else, it would be pretty ridiculous.

I'm reading these posts and they feel spectacularly uninformed. Now there's an issue cause I instinctually have a bias to assume that newbies get... at least a bit of talk with their teammates and that's tripped me up more than once. But I keep reading and rereading these posts and they don't feel like they come from someone who knows much about the game. Even their game-related thoughts that they make has clear gaps in their knowledge that they likely wouldn't have being informed in a chat with other people.

This isn't to say that Niektory played bad. Reading these posts proper I think he played pretty well for his first game, though obviously overwhelmed. But you can't fake that sort of thing, in my opinion.

[Disquieted]

Maybe I'll come back later for zwerdjib and ActionDan. But that's the solve for me already, and I don't have to get confrontational about anything. You all gotta talk about what the hole is, instead. Arguing about who is town is less grimy anyways.

[raikaria]

God it feels like the game has stalled out heavily.

If Conq can get one thing right it's mechanics, and there are four scum, likely.

We have two mislynches left, I believe, assuming nothing strange happens.

4 Scum / 11

Mislynch = 4/10; then there's the nightkill.

That's 4/9; which is LYLO. We mislynch and lose because it's 4/8.

The only way we have 2 mislynches is if there are 3 scum. And I severely doubt that in a 17p game.

Anyway, most people seem to be townreading InActionDan. I must admit in what he has posted I don't see much which particularly stands out as scum, my bad read on him atm mostly comes from the fact MotKScum tend to lurk, and his voting patterns and lack of casing.

But you know what, I think I have a thought that we should think about, and may help:

Some of the scum nightkills have seemed a little odd:

N1 - Prims wasn't really doing much and really seemed like an odd choice
N2 was a fairly obvious kill
N3... is very strange again. Why kill Nuxl; who I don't think was really anyone's #1 townread, over a Cop claim, the Cop's clear, 2 Masons and Myself?

I think we might be able to narrow the field by looking at Prims and Nuxl's interactions. Especially with the hindsight that they are town. Nuxl in particular was always going on about meta and he should know the meta of the various other new players have have more.

It'll take me a while because it's quite hard to focus on mafia when you're coughing every few mins and have flubrain. If anyone else wants to join me in solving this conundrum, feel free.

[Disquieted]

Maybe I wasn't clear. Or I misdefined it. Looks like the latter. Let me try again.

There are six people left in the pool. If I have one person who I decide to townclear completely and refuse to lynch, that gives me one mislynch. Five players left, four mafia. Yes? So I need one clear.

[Disquieted]

Prims dying pointed very much to Niektory from my perspective before I started interacting with the thread. I don't know what Prims points to overall, except I have a distinct feeling the kill should have felt like it was on Conqueror or sb. So that's problematic.

Fabloo dying was a big problem from my perspective, given they died over two claimed masons. It points to Conqueror and someone else and Duskfall, apparently. Can't remember the second.

Nuxl dying is pretty strange. I have theories. Give me a few half hours.

[Disquieted]

Enough time.

I'm pretty sure the scumteam thought Serela was a governor, not a cop. It's really the only thing that makes sense as to why he didn't die. This is probably also why sb isn't showing up because he's incredibly tilted at the fact that Kilga put a cop and a vig and masons in the game and the scumteam probably has... I'd have to guess a roleblocker maybe, tops. So after three mislynches we're still favoured to win. Take that as a mafia member; how mad would you be that town has done nothing right and are yet still favoured to win?

It was pretty clear sb didn't believe Serela was any sort of information role; whether you choose to believe that's TMI that sb knows more of the setup than he's letting on is up to you. But yeah, he was definitely caught off-guard by Serela's claim and it shows pretty clearly and is why I'm theorizing this in the first place.

So yeah. I won't claim to know what scumchat was like but like I can sit myself in their spot and go "if Serela is a full cop the game is probably stupid anyways, let's assume that's not what happens and Serela is a realistic lynch, a lynch we need that the masons will pull." And they look at the rest of the list, and they see a bunch of players that aren't working together regardless of how towny they can be. Maybe I'm wrong on Conqueror and we get to fight for the rest of time and that's very messy. It's definitely a possibility. Either way I don't think I'm dying cause I need to be an open mislynch at this point and I'm a outsider replacement that at that point did not want to influence the game, and I'm a lot more likely than Nuxl to get mislynched here, especially over his smogon angleshoot nonsense. Everyone else is not really communicating about the game, including myself.

--

That said, the more I look at this the more the feeling of doubt that there's a team of Serela/Dormio/NNR/Oarfish exists which would also answer the above. But that's very stupid.

[Serela]

just woke up~

team of Serela/Dormio/NNR/Oarfish

this would be the most hilarious gambit-heavy bullstrawberries ever

Also don't even say scum roleblocker, I don't want to be roleblocked and allowed to live for a potential mislynch I want to be nightkilled and saved from this nightmare.

[raikaria]

Right; so going back and looking at Nuxl to try and figure out who would target him. This is in reverse order; most recent stuff to least recent, because obviously the stuff that happened closer to his death is more relevant.

Serela would you do conq here

Would anyone else do conq here

First thing to note is that Nuxl wanted a Conq lynch LD3.

Neither of these wagons are good

Literally lmao

'These wagons' being Duskfall and Zwejd.

This over Duskfall? Why?

Oh boy deadlock

'This' being a Zwejd lynch, indicating his townread on Zwejd is stronger than his townread on Duskfall; despite feeling both are bad lynches.

Let's try something

##Vote: Zwerdijb

Who actually prefers this

That said he's one of the ones who starts the Zwerd wagon so now I'm confused?

i don't really want it to happen because i already said why so so many times but i haven't fact checked but still feel i'm correct here

Not enough is going to vote conq or sb here and this consolidation is so late to DL. Not voting zwer here myself unless it needs to be done which makes me think I'm deadlocking the vote elsewhere

Again; Nuxl re-iterates a willingless to go after Conq. There's also an expression of an SB lynch.

i dont really mega like the major two wagons but again hostage situation

conq or sb would be spicy for the purpose of  "see who actually does it" but nobody will lol

Or maybe it's not a scumread?

we are not no lynching ever

i wanted to yolo vote conq or niek to see who'd take it but doesn't seem likely given current mood lmfao

Oddly SB isn't here, at some point the Yolo target changed from Neik to SB. Conq however is consistent.

Here's a sort of thought bubble thing for everybody and I hope someone makes sense out of this in my 3 AM deprived brain.

For scum, in a plurality game, the amount of people you need to convince is relatively low to push a lynch you want depending on the day. In this instance, the amount of "viable" lynches per day increases in comparison to a majority game where it seems like you need to make half the game remove the people you want.

I guess this suggests scum should be townreading players in question and then nightkilling them? So in this instance, I don't really know why scum!smartbomb goes and makes a case on Conq since it seems absolutely impossible for it to flip where there are easier routes available. I don't really know why o4rfish goes and sheeps the vote on Conq. It's so weird. Maybe the number is too high for it to succeed? I don't know why Niek voted Duskfall of all people, and Dan's vote isn't really doing anything given deadline is soon.

Wrt O4rfish, their thing to Abu seemed completely genuine and nobody got back to me if they could fake this emotion on page 8 in their scumgame , I think. But I can't tell if their posts are completely uncoachable anymore or if I'm just biting on the recent amount of casing by the people I actually do townread.

The votes being split is likely concerning. I kind of want to give in and vote dan, because his only streak of posts is because he's gotten pressure, but that feels incorrect...? Because the only resistance is Smartbomb...? honestly at this point I don't really give a damn anymore and I just want to see how people react.

##Vote: O4rfish. I even typed this out and it feels wrong. My vote is still malleable and I'll be here at deadline. Will vote Dan if I need to, possibly begrudgingly even do Conq.

OK; so everything above seems to be a reactiontest... but that might actually be important because the 'reaction' is Nuxl got killed. Also; the other bolded bit might be important. But this means I have to go back and see who expressed townreads on Prims and Nuxl which is uuuuuuugh.

just going to ignore people already confirmed/role confirmed alignment wise

zwer's early pages were why i townread him, lot of wish for him to jump in and start doing stuff. his reaction to dormio's thing on shadoweh on page 3 wrt overthinking was my exact reaction at the time. lot of weird logic that felt towny to me given i know a player who does this on my home site.

conq's presence on those pages were something i townread early but on a reread i'm whatever ebout it now

o4rfish's vote on me on page 8 uses disgustingly bad logic that i townread initially because sb said they were a kind of player who did this stuff pretty often but given their d2 i don't really know what my read on them is, it kind of fizzled out but i'm kind of like this for a lot of the game so far.

the anger felt genuine but i kind of want to ask other people if they think it could be fake in this instance.

intriguingly 1. their scumreads are all unaccurate (i'm kind of confident in my zwer read to say that) and 2. the only unknown in their townreads is conq

refa's page 8 is really good and felt familiar to danganronpa i played with a year ago. raikaria's page 8 i disagree with on the premise of meta but i think it's irrelevant at this point of time

until page 9: sb just played a scumgame on smogon where he kind of didn't really try and contributed more in terms of game theory and thread mechanics as opposed to actually presenting reads: in this game he's more right to the point and that should suggest he breaks town (or it's extremely good adaptation which well, this pl is probably a lot better so it'd make sense ig)

I feel like I should have thoughts on 12-14. I don't really have that. Serela's thing on shifting vote people noted seemed off but I didn't really get pinged one way or another for it. I think conq's reentrance post and queries was fine here and his persistent points of pressure felt ok. I don't know if conq is able to replicate this kind of stuff as scum. Can anybody with more experience playing with scum!conq enlighten me here?

#459 dusk was a good town ping, same with the other post he made about abu openwolfing later. forceful, cocky pressure and not being scared is a good town indicator for him.

ftr this is almost accurate enough where he's dmed me about how hard it is for him to read me like a month before this game started

#619 oarfish made me feel like it was genuine thought at the time so i didn't really want to touch it since then

dan's vote felt kind of strange, i also thought this about nnr haha so lol. on a reread conq's townread on me is kind of curious and i'm not exactly sure why he's having it. everybody jumping on abu's nuts on vig claim seems too good to be too (notably these 3)

i dont remember where it was but

@tommy have you ever done an ordered list like 654 before? as town. 722 is a really clean adaptation if he's scum.

#774 niek's vote is garbage i think i keep saying this

i kinda shared tommy's #797 at the time but was too scared to say it lmao, especially their string of posts on the page after were pretty curious

Zwer's #846 is strange as fire truck as scum to do especially because nobody else saw it but him.

Raik selfvote felt towny and would've been really ballsy as scum to do.

I actually expected Conq to be the nightkill D1 so was kind of surprised he wasn't. Prims wanted abu/niek/o4rfish/shadoweh/raik at the end of D1, notably did not townread SB but townleaned Dusk/Conq/Zwer. If both Dusk/Conq are scum seems kind of like a purposeless kill for them but I guess everybody townread both near the end of the day so I guess they didn't particularly care.

------ Day 2 ------

Something felt off about NNR and sb crossvoting then going to consolidate on o4rfish? I didn't think sb's mistake looked scummy but I don't understand why he dropped his entire vote with it.

Refa's points of pressure are good here and only really solidifies my read here.

#1069 @conq did you stop townreading me after D1? what happened to your high confidence townread -> solving my slot?

SB #1072 empower in a noc game lol

tommy #1079 I don't think I'm going to play a NOC game for a while so I'll just reveal my cards now- what I meant on my personal tell during later D2: scum!duskfall never pushes people for slips on smogon. On smogon he's tried to push someone for perspective slips or other wording slips in 3 different town games and 1 jester game but has never done stuff like that as scum. He's been defensive about slips as scum but he's never used it as a point of pressure. On mafia451, he's tried to push people on slips twice as town, and 0 as scum.

Niek #1153: very strange, he keeps entering with unusual conclusions since nobody knows where he's getting his introductions from u know

sb #1253: agree with what i said regarding the NK from shadoweh, as if it's acting under assumption shadoweh had control of that kill which is... likely not true given their thread equity post d1?

my reaction to serela #1400: i don't mind revealing my cards here too. i thought Serela was signaling that them and niek were masons and i think only Fabloo caught onto that given their discussion to me on the next page. I don't think this means anything in particular but the wagon reactively seemed genuine and so did Serela's reaction a tad.

Can't really parse this eod all too well but AD's entrance was strange to me

Fabloo was keen on pushing Conq/Dusk/NNR/AD slots early D2 and thought that Dusk was leading wagon. I don't really think Conq and Dusk are ever partners here, seems unnecessary for Conq to risk Dusk in this position at the end of D2 (+ certain D1 interactions that pinged me otherwise).


Refa slot/Zwer: pretty confident townreads here and don't really think I'm smoked.

Raikaria is probably town based on self vote:(even if the self vote didn't really matter imo, the tone behind it felt fairly genuine in addition to their subsequent anger following various cases. there was an instance in a game a couple years back where they self voted for the sake of town as well which is why i asked about meta)

I kind of skipped over Serela's posts the most this game and I don't know why. Don't really scumread them and am inclined to sheep Prims' townread on them. Biggest thing was their presence for the shadoweh swap which felt good at heart but I doubt that's enough. Will do a more cursory look when my eyes aren't killing me, this is the last thing I typed.

O4rfish's posts have changed every day which seems absolutely impossible to work with in a scumteam, but I guess that all that matters for their slot is really their vote of which uh, they've hit rown both times, but at least their D2 vote was consistent? Abu vote kind of makes sense even though it wasn't justified- in all actuality their tone to abu telling him to actually do some strawberries to save his own life felt genuine in addition to their anger D1. Though I think their slot is constantly being scrutinized which almost makes me feel like I'm wrong somewhere in making this read. I think them getting an early wagon from two crossvoting slots on d2 was strange but given the proceeding claims I guess I can't really look into it all that much. Shame NNR is actually conf mainly because we can't really get sb's read on why exactly he consolidated with someone he just cased on the previous page? If their tone is fakable it makes the slot worse but I'm so fuzzy here. btw there was a reason I wanted to sheep Dormio but it's not safe to talk about it

sb's posts have felt fine in the sense that there's a notable difference between the last scumgame they played on smogon and this one in regards to approaching the main points at hand + pointing out people. There are numerous applications of incorrect logic (namely D2: empower fear, shadoweh dictating NK, entire interaction with NNR's slot on the first few pages) that are a tad awkward and I still can't really bring it within me to townread him. Maybe it's because he's felt toneless and maybe that's a norm thing for him. Dunno

i love tommy but i think i'm losing faith in what he's doing but i think his aggression + slip thing i mentioned earlier should point to his favor even though i don't really have the handgun apricity/hal to back me up here, so i'm more of a mic piece that isn't connected to a speaker. a little frozen in how to verbalize any confidence here in addition that i don't exactly want to handwave any development on him. gun to head think i should be townreading him here though or at least he's out of poe vicinity but there's a nonzero chance i'm wrong

i townread conq d1 bc of his slot pressure in addition to his brazy gambit d2, but maybe it's because i'm inspired by the recent case that there are a few oddities: notably his read on me circulated between d1 and d2 and not exactly sure why, and Fabloo did kind of want them offed which is sort of telling given I expected him to be in NK contention during both days(maybe less so D2). His reaction to Raikaria today felt a bit strange too- don't know why anyone would reconsider raik ever. The gambit in general probably doesn't mean much if there's no risk to outing it but at the time I liked it. I don't hate his posts and his pressure Felt good but I think I'm open to consider a point of reevaluation.

Niek has noticable logic jumps that make me a bit eerie around this slot since it's hard to know how exactly he got to the points he did and I don't know if he just doesn't know himself or doesn't care to show up in thread and explain it...? Or is too stiff to not get caught out? I'm not sure.

Dan I kind of skipped over his posts during D1 for the most part. His ISO doesn't really strike me as anything and I was kind of bothered by his vote on Abu D1. I have no idea what to make of his progression because it seems like his entrances on prior days are less cohesive than today; and his final vote on both days seem to differ from what he wants to do early on in the day, and while I can say it's bad progression it's harder to tell because he just isn't consistently here to update his reads live. His recent post disputing the modspew didn't feel like it produced cohesive thought and I don't know what to make of it considering it seems like his play here is so much different than on 451 (site cultures, I guess). Potential confbias answer is expanding the lynch pool rofl

this is not ordered and is more like a thought dump

Maybe the mentality between consolidating wagons is too dangerous and no idea how to oppose it. Still wish we had plur though xD

It's funny that I typed all this and I still want to do Niek most of all. Maybe there's something wrong with me.

'Ere we go.

Nuxl actually doesn't give any outright scumreads; but his worst reads seem to be Neik; O4rfish; Conq and SB. He also points out that Fabloo was pushing Conq somewhat; and Prims was pushing Neik.

So we have 2 people who were pressuring Conq and Neik as nightkills.

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My idea is that for Nuxl to have been the nightkill over Myself/Dormio/NNR/O4rfish/Serela [Barring the Dormio/NNR/O4rfish/Serela supergambit scumteam]; the Mafia would have to have felt threatened by Nuxl. Which means the mafia would have to include at least one of Nuxl's worse reads.

Which seems to be Neik/Conq/SB.

I feel we should be looking rather strongly among these three at this point. Considering I already had somewhat of a scumread on Conq [See: D3]

##Unvote
##Vote: Conqueror

[sb]

I'm gonna be real after Tommy flipped town while playing like that my motivation to play the game just died.

I don't really care to defend myself from cases like "SB has had bad scumreads in a game where we have only mislynched town" (despite NNR's scumreads being similarly strawberries) and "SB has done nothing, if you ignore everything in their posts". Maybe smartbomb is scum for it? I dunno though, Refa's subout seemed townie. If I get lynched though, don't just turbo Conq tomorrow for the exact same strawberries that I'm being blamed for. I'm pretty damn checked out but I guess I should at least try a little.

##Vote: zwerdjib

This vote is fine. I'm still kinda shocked by the turnaround in opinion of him but I haven't liked Zeep much all game and felt like he was getting too much of a pass.