Neo DEFCON Mafia (DEFCON 1, Phase 1)

[Serela]

Oh my god bard stop making me cry, you guys keep making plausible arguments anyone could be sk

Although the argument Rai nk'd beru out of delirium feels more like a hilarious conspiracy theory than anything else tbh

It's so funny I love that you actually did it

My nuke is offensive

Bard:im still mid processing ok

[Serela]

Like I'm phonereading because I haven't gotten out of bed and every couple posts is another madly wild twist holy heck

[raikaria]

SK!Rai works long hospital shifts, and addled from lack of sleep submits a kill on Beru, who he didn't realise was in danger of being modkilled/didn't have any better targets/whatevers, who the fire truck kills Beru?

That night, Scum decided to clear Raikaria from the field as everyone believed him Town.

The previous game day, Raikaria claims he cannot self-protecc, hoping Scum'll fall for it (???) while he goes off to kill someone else. Except Scum knew he could self-protecc since he did it before and so decide to hit someone else.

Except Zoomy didn't think I was town and he was the biggest townread?

Also; we have 24 hours to make 1 command. I'm lucid enough to think nightkills through Bard. I certainly would not target Beru. Neither would I target Meow or Daiya out of the options. Especially since I'm you know, the Doc.

Using my claim last night is silly. Yes; I was hoping to draw a shot to myself to block.

Now how would that benefit a SK? Who's wincon is 'everyone else is dead'. I'd want the scum to kill someone else. Not waste their shot on me and achieve nothing.

My nuke is offensive

You have a nuke on offense and know who's scum... so why haven't you used it?

[Serela]

Rai I finished reading the thread like 10 minutes ago and I need to take out my contacts, use the bathroom and eat breakfast

Not to mention actually crunch numbers about the situation we're in

Maybe hold your pants on for a second Jesus Christ lmao

[raikaria]

Oh yeah I forgot

##Unvote

[Bardiche]

I actually hate living to deadline because I get decision paralysis and suspect everyone of scum.

Think I prefer being lynched Day 1 for being too pro-active after all.

[Serela]

Bard:I'm going to try lurking some so I can survive longer

Bard in Lylo:Nevermind actually I'm happy to die before d2 starts

eating breakfast, will reread d4 after and evaluate things

[Bardiche]

Bard:I'm going to try lurking some so I can survive longer

Bard in Lylo:Nevermind actually I'm happy to die before d2 starts

[Serela]

I live to lylo an overwhelming majority of the time so I'm used to it >_>

[Serela]

ugh the fact that doc can self-target (wtf??? I guess it makes sense since 3 factions and lottery style...? but it should seriously say that in the description) means that raikaria can actually realistically be SK and that is PAINFUL

[Serela]

ok well, as for finding the MAFIA

it can literally only be bard FMPOV which I guess is why rai was saying that earlier

but failsafe is a pretty legit scum role to take so he's likely telling the truth

and getting counter-nuked means 2 living players :^) So what happens if I nuke bard, get failsafe'd, and we've got two incoming nukes and an SK on the loose between rai and zoomy?

1.We wait OR we turbo no-lynch-tan like a bunch of bullies
Nukes fall, SK endgames town
2.We turbo-lynch Rai or Zoomy
This only works if the scum with an impending nukefall is willing to help town win via quick-suiciding or voting with town, AKA risky as hell b/c they don't have literally any obligation to do this

this plan does not work. I literally don't think I can nuke bard? RAIKARIA THIS IS WHY WE THINK ABOUT THINGS FIRST

[Serela]

honestly rai urgently pushing me to nuke bard when i've already said i'm reading from bed and have only just woken up leads me to suspect maybe they really are the SK because doing that is incredibly likely to result in sk win

[NucleusWaffles]

TO HAVE DETERMINATION AND FAITH TO WIN, GO TOWN

[Serela]

CUTE, NOW GET BACK IN YOUR GRAVE LIKE A GOOD WAFFLE

[Serela]

So I pretty much can't nuke Bard and he's confirmed scum (FMPOV), so I need to try to nuke the SK? Not nuking anyone definitely seems like the wrong play and at worst this is a 50/50 guess for my SK nuke.

If I nuke the SK and we lynch Bard, we're good to go. That's 2 town alive and he can only failsafe one of us at worst. Of course, at that point, Rai or Zoomy still have to be willing to vote Bard over me I guess, but that's just the reality we live in so I'll worry about that when we get there.

...i'm debating internally and i would appreciate any comments on the plan so far @_@ I think this is accurate so I'm mostly just trying to deliberate whether I nuke Rai or Zoomy here?

[Bardiche]

How am I “confirmed scum”? Is this the magic Serela moment where he flings whatever strawberries he can in hopes of ekeing out a win from his hopeless position?

[NekoNekoRex]

In the event of a stalemate I will likely refer to the relevant win conditions and award it depending on which factions remain.

[NekoNekoRex]

I actually have no clue to be honest. I'll give it some thought.

[Serela]

If I nuke the town (whoops!) we can still lynch bard and if he's actually a failsafe he might feel benevolent and fire it off at someone trying to save town.

Actually, no, that doesn't work. He nukes me and SK wins or he nukes the other person and the SK still has more than enough time left to nightkill me and win via global death. (48hr nukes, 24hr night phase)

If Raikaria is actually town then their doc could maybe do something? but this only comes into play if I nuke zoomy, obviously there's no point nuking Rai if we let him live long enough to use a night action anyway (he won't save anyone but himself if he's SK) Mmmn. And if I nuke Zoomy and Rai's SK, we've already lost regardless of how we progress. If I nuke Rai!Town and Zoomy is SK, I think loss is guaranteed...

Yeah there's no weird shenanigans we can do here. I think I literally just have to nuke the SK successfully or it's a loss.

From your guys perspectives where I can still theoretically be scum, Bard as failsafe SK is basically guaranteed the win period if we no-lynch after I nuke, because whether he's lynched or nightkilled, he fires off a failsafe nuke and hits the last living player and wins the game. Thankfully I know this isn't the case! @_@

uhhhhh is there literally any situation I haven't gone over already? like anything? I guess I haven't fully numbercrunched if we no-lynch WITHOUT nuking? Rai would HAVE to be town, have to block a kill, and this is straight-up worse than me firing the nuke at Zoomy, so no, we don't do this.

Yeah I think I've covered everything. I pretty much have to successfully nuke whichever of Rai or Zoomy is the SK. No other options. Period.

How am I “confirmed scum”? Is this the magic Serela moment where he flings whatever strawberries he can in hopes of ekeing out a win from his hopeless position?

Bard I've been attaching the "from my point of view" addendum to (almost?) every time I've said this. Rai was literally copped as not-mafia and Rai is claiming to have docced Zoomy Tsugumi on a night where scum was nightkilled (via sk as only rational explanation) meaning if Rai isn't the SK pulling a major gambit, Zoomy cannot be mafia.

...wait... could rai!sk pull this as a major gambit and result in a world where zoomy is potentially mafia?

I'm SOBBING

NNR:What? I'm pretty sure a stalemate is not actually possible lmao

[Serela]

ok I guess a stalemate where a theoretical town!raikaria as doctor self-protects every night against the final scum or SK could exist

but this is OBVIOUSLY a town loss scenario.

[raikaria]

ok I guess a stalemate where a theoretical town!raikaria as doctor self-protects every night against the final scum or SK could exist

but this is OBVIOUSLY a town loss scenario.

Yes this is the stalemate I've said like 5 times.

[raikaria]

Also I'm saying to nuke one of Zoomy/Bard because I know I'm not an SK Doctor who randomly targeted Beru.

Seriously. Zoomy is very likly the SK because his role explains Beru's death.

Also if I was SK why would I have brutally shot down Zeep's massclaim plan as being more useful to SK+Russia than to Town? Why would I deny myself information.

Seriously the amount of hoops you have to jump through for me to be SK is massive. I mean it's a theoretical possibility, but it makes a lot more sense and is a lot less logical than 'Zoomy got a leak which told him Beru was the scum'.

[raikaria]

There's still the problem of how to handle the other lynch however. And it's not just a case of 'selfprotect' because ScumSerela could just go to defensive Silo and protect against Bard and then nuke me the day after that, and ScumBard is a stalemate unless I block his shot.

[raikaria]

God these nukes make this hard. 2/1/1 is a hard situation for anyone to really win from.

[Serela]

screaming holding head in hands

i... i think i have to settle for the reality that it probably is insane for raikaria to actually be sk

i was already coming to this conclusion before he made that post

i think it's time to nuke zoomy

[Bardiche]

Fail Safe retaliates so I 100% will nuke Serela if he tries to nuke me. If I get killed, I’ll instead nuke Serela for being scum.

[raikaria]

Fail Safe retaliates so I 100% will nuke Serela if he tries to nuke me. If I get killed, I’ll instead nuke Serela for being scum.

But as I just said; Serela can switch to defense, shoot down your nuke; stalemate the lynch, bounce off me, and then nuke me.

[raikaria]

I mean this is all assumeing Serela nukes Zoomy and Zoomy is the SK.

Either way it comes down to a 50/50. We No-Lynch and I try and block a shot for info, or I decide to lynch between you and Serela.

[Serela]

##Nuke:ZoomyTsugumi

[Bardiche]

Serela nukes Zoomy and we lynch Serela.


I don’t have a nuke I can fire off, so I couldn’t off you even if I had an NK.


This’d reduce risks to 0 for Town.