Author Topic: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Game Over!)  (Read 819113 times)

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Disquieted

  • ⑨_⑨
  • aka smartbomb
Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1050 on: April 19, 2020, 04:55:20 AM »
I mean, that's correct, yes. That's a unfortunate conclusion of this phase. The problem is that the only people who define a problem are the other people outside of what you've just said, and because people don't really care, the problem has really just been defined. It's a feedback loop.

Is Daiya a black sheep? Let me ask you a question. A few people wanted Daiya dead at the end of Day 1. Why is it that I'm the one at L-2 24 hours in the game, and Daiya has one vote, and as far as I can tell, not mentioned? Is it just cause BBM is townshielding him?

I could give you a biased answer based on what I think Daiya's alignment likely is, but you can fill in the gap yourself by just reading this sentence.

Fabloo

  • The rain falls down on last year's man.
Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1051 on: April 19, 2020, 04:57:00 AM »
I mean, that's correct, yes. That's a unfortunate conclusion of this phase. The problem is that the only people who define a problem are the other people outside of what you've just said, and because people don't really care, the problem has really just been defined. It's a feedback loop.

Is Daiya a black sheep? Let me ask you a question. A few people wanted Daiya dead at the end of Day 1. Why is it that I'm the one at L-2 24 hours in the game, and Daiya has one vote, and as far as I can tell, not mentioned? Is it just cause BBM is townshielding him?

I could give you a biased answer based on what I think Daiya's alignment likely is, but you can fill in the gap yourself by just reading this sentence.

Can I just ask you what happened to your Polaris thought D1? I can read between the lines.

Disquieted

  • ⑨_⑨
  • aka smartbomb
Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1052 on: April 19, 2020, 04:57:58 AM »
Although, I will say, like... where you play mafia do people actually try to scumhunt with the entire scumteam in mind before any of them have actually flipped???? Because even when motk mafia was more generally cohesive, the general mindset is definitely to just go with top scumreads until you actually get far enough to be able to worry about entire scumteams. You might post a musing or two about a potential pairing as you argue one of them is scum, but it's really not important until someone's flipped red.

That's not what I meant. Team analysis sucks no matter what time of the game you're in.

You usually don't tunnel on a single person and evaluate your options. Except I don't know the readlist of anyone off the top of my head.

Disquieted

  • ⑨_⑨
  • aka smartbomb
Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1053 on: April 19, 2020, 05:01:22 AM »
Can I just ask you what happened to your Polaris thought D1? I can read between the lines.

It's still there actually. I still think he's scum, I have serious concerns he's scum but I couldn't write it down why any more except in esoterics ("feelings") and it's really not necessary to do that in the possible outcome that he's just town and trying to play the game. You state concerns. You don't say you want to lynch someone, when you can compromise on a better lynch.

I could expend energy, probably about 3-4 hours as to why I still feel Polaris is scum, but I refuse to do that any more and as is it's not necessary to deal with in this stage of the game because like you say, lynching outside of Serela/Daiya/Disquieted is a silly proposal.

Fabloo

  • The rain falls down on last year's man.
Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1054 on: April 19, 2020, 05:02:54 AM »
OK well I'm sold on keeping you alive further after talking to you and would prefer to vote Daiya.

##Vote: Daiya

BigBangMeteor

  • The Professor
Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1055 on: April 19, 2020, 05:03:28 AM »
i hate this game almost everyone sounds town on tone to me but then I've literally only played with raikaria, serela, and NNR, and polly like once.

a lot of what smartbomb said in this last post is good and correct and posts like that were why I was inclined to think of him as town earlier but also nothing in it is alignment-dependent.

i hope newer players realize that we're very unlikely to have a strong investigative role left in the game. masons are themselves very strong (two town clears!) + tracker is pretty good as well. this is why you can't rely on power roles to solve the game for you.

i didn't think i would but i think i preferred tom yelling at everyone early day 1 rather than his play d2 where he just comes in and sheeps the biggest wagon. sigh.

Dormio Ergo Sum

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Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day 2)
« Reply #1056 on: April 19, 2020, 05:03:45 AM »
Votecount
Disquieted (5): NekoNekoRex, Serela, banana spritzee, BigBangMeteor, Tom (L-2)
NucleusWaffles (2): Yaersulf, PX
Daiya (2): Disquieted, Fabloo
Serela (1): Polaris
Polaris (1): Daiya
NekoNekoRex (0):
BigBangMeteor (0):
banana spritzee (0):
Tom (0):
Fabloo (0):
raikaria (0):
Yaersulf (0):
PX (0):

There are currently 2 male characters and 11 female characters in the game.
With 13 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch!
Not voting: NucleusWaffles, raikaria
Disquieted is at L-2!

Time until day phase ends: [ Expired ]
« Last Edit: April 22, 2020, 01:30:52 AM by Dormio Ergo Sum »

Fabloo

  • The rain falls down on last year's man.
Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1057 on: April 19, 2020, 05:06:07 AM »
BBM, you should look at what both me and Disquieted were saying. It's fine if you praise his conclusions but I just noticed that. Almost everyone has said something about Daiya or suspected him that is active. I would again pose the same question to you about whether he's just a black sheep. This is especially relevant given you townread him.

BigBangMeteor

  • The Professor
Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1058 on: April 19, 2020, 05:08:09 AM »
after taking a look at daiya again I took him out of my townreads. i'm not really sure how to weigh different parts of his play together. i still feel that the voteswitch if not a town guarantee is the single most likely town indicator on any of the people i think are possible scum. but i think his general tone has probably been the least townie, to me.

i think i'm probably looking at daiya/smartbomb/raikaria/banana > serela/tom > nucleus right now.

i don't feel that daiya makes sense as a buddy with smartbomb or serela. daiya/raikaria is possible. smartbomb/raikaria is possible. tom is probably not buddies with raikaria. i think it's possible if he's scum his buddies have told him to vote them at this point so it's possible he's buddies with smartbomb or serela. banana is possible buddies with anyone cuz no posts lol; i dont take a vote on smartbomb with no words very seriously.

ftr i generally agree that team-level analysis isn't great. but i'm at the point where i have a bunch of ppl at roughly the same 30-40% likelihood to be scum and this helps me think things through a little more and edge one person over the other.

Fabloo

  • The rain falls down on last year's man.
Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1059 on: April 19, 2020, 05:11:43 AM »
Team analysis is almost always bunk. It's comfort food. It does help me PoE things down a bit though. I would like if you responded or at least looked at the end of my arguments regardless if I'm playing bad or not. I don't understand that perspective still and I'm not sure how it's relevant.

Fabloo

  • The rain falls down on last year's man.
Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1060 on: April 19, 2020, 05:16:49 AM »
Oh and I know I'm the omnipotent clear but just want to say my opinion about Disquieted is probably on hold.

BigBangMeteor

  • The Professor
Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1061 on: April 19, 2020, 05:18:56 AM »
BBM, you should look at what both me and Disquieted were saying. It's fine if you praise his conclusions but I just noticed that. Almost everyone has said something about Daiya or suspected him that is active. I would again pose the same question to you about whether he's just a black sheep. This is especially relevant given you townread him.

hmm. i generally don't agree with the "if everyone thinks they're scum then they probably arent cuz their buddies would be defending them" logic.

firstly, scum don't really want to defend their buddies that much. scum want to talk about their buddies as little as possible. but if their buddy becomes a big wagon and/or enough time passes that it just looks weird that they've never talked about that person, they want to have a non-committal read or a light scumread that they don't really push that much.

secondly, around d2-d3 is the optimal time for bussing. d1 is kinda too early because there are so many ppl necessary to lynch someone at that stage that it results in too many townreads from a successful lynch, so you have to like, bus really really hard so that you stand out among those townreads as a super townread. past d3 you've either already lost someone and so you don't want to bus too much more, or you haven't lost someone and you're probably just like one or two lynches away from winning the game so it's smarter to push really hard for those lynches rather than let the game drag out, particularly if strong town roles are still alive.

Disquieted

  • ⑨_⑨
  • aka smartbomb
Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1062 on: April 19, 2020, 05:21:29 AM »
BBM, if Daiya is being suspected by many people, why isn't he getting votes?

BigBangMeteor

  • The Professor
Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1063 on: April 19, 2020, 05:26:15 AM »
Team analysis is almost always bunk. It's comfort food. It does help me PoE things down a bit though. I would like if you responded or at least looked at the end of my arguments regardless if I'm playing bad or not. I don't understand that perspective still and I'm not sure how it's relevant.

it was pretty uncharitable of me to say you were playing bad. sorry about that. but I think of playing "bad" or "well" more in terms of process than results. you've also played a lot better today and are engaging with people and asking questions and trying to read people a lot more than you did on d1 where you were kind of hostile and randomly refusing to vote and stuff.

BBM, if Daiya is being suspected by many people, why isn't he getting votes?

yeah it's making me think he's scum. but this was also partially why i doubled down on my meow read like 2/3rds of the way through day 1 because everyone other than NNR was like "yeah this person could be scum" but nobody wanted to vote him until there were a few hours left in the phase.

Fabloo

  • The rain falls down on last year's man.
Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1064 on: April 19, 2020, 05:27:24 AM »
It's fine. I generally just wanted to know how it was affecting your reads in terms of. Badness. People playing bad. You mentioned it briefly but personally I think you should move away from it from your own sake.

NucleusWaffles

Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1065 on: April 19, 2020, 05:30:16 AM »
I honestly think Disquieted is going too fast because nervousness at L-2, so I understand him emotionally but I am physically incapable of keeping up because I am not interested in his lynch nor do I think he is logically flawed.

I don't have a scumteam, by extension, I think its too early to formulate scumteams because our premier D1 lynch (Bardiche) made a confusion replace out with a non-lurker. So despite the additional mod-confirmed information (loss of tracker and outing of masons, bad news), in terms of buddying analysis we are essentially back at D1 square one from scratch.

And this perspective is making me horribly apathetic, or at least apathetic enough I trust myself in taking matters into my own hands. I think we should, however, for clarity's sake lynch banana spritzee.


I disagree with Tom not being helpful with graphs, the graphs are very helpful, and this is honestly a mess of words I regret digging myself into, but I am doing so anyway because we don't seem to be being very rational by lynching Disquieted, one of the more rational and town-lean players, based on scum team speculations.

cut many times

Serela

  • Wait, it's Mafia Time?
  • Time was a mistake.
Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1066 on: April 19, 2020, 05:36:56 AM »
when i read waffles' posts i legitimately just don't know what to even do with them

Disquieted

  • ⑨_⑨
  • aka smartbomb
Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1067 on: April 19, 2020, 05:37:04 AM »
me too thanks

BigBangMeteor

  • The Professor
Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1068 on: April 19, 2020, 05:40:57 AM »
It's fine. I generally just wanted to know how it was affecting your reads in terms of. Badness. People playing bad. You mentioned it briefly but personally I think you should move away from it from your own sake.

maybe. i like to have that concept in my head though because it helps me try to discern actual scum intent.

i guess i'm at a point where i'm inclined to vote daiya? but I feel like i've been thinking about the game so much today that I'm just looping through every possibility at hyper-speed and I probably need to sleep on it before going from hard defending daiya to voting him in the span of a few hours lol. i'm pretty unsure this game if nobody has realized so i think i'm letting myself be influenced by other ppl too much.

nucleus,  you're currently not voting anyone. so how have the graphs helped you figure out who's scum? what information did you gain from them?

NucleusWaffles

Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1069 on: April 19, 2020, 05:49:32 AM »
I scumread Yaesulf, because he seems to be coasting.

I don't like using my vote so liberally because I know specifically a player (Tom) is good at tallying votes and onlines and logins.

In the meta of this game, and the meta is defined by its players, I need to break out of the exact mould if I am to remain useful and alive.

If I have to vote someone, I want to vote Yaesulf, because he seems quite active start D2, then is coasting now that theres a big fight for survival over Disquieted, Fabloo, BBM.

Also, in defense of Serela, Serela seems serene and a genuinely nice person despite being screamed at by everyone for being useless. Why must you all bully him so?


Anyway, scumread, actually, why haven't I voted Yaesulf yet?

##Vote Yaesulf

Yaesulf, I want your hot takes on the matter.

Disquieted

  • ⑨_⑨
  • aka smartbomb
Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1070 on: April 19, 2020, 05:59:36 AM »
I think we should, however, for clarity's sake lynch banana spritzee.
I scumread Yaesulf, because he seems to be coasting.

I don't like using my vote so liberally because I know specifically a player (Tom) is good at tallying votes and onlines and logins.

In the meta of this game, and the meta is defined by its players, I need to break out of the exact mould if I am to remain useful and alive.

If I have to vote someone, I want to vote Yaesulf, because he seems quite active start D2, then is coasting now that theres a big fight for survival over Disquieted, Fabloo, BBM.

Also, in defense of Serela, Serela seems serene and a genuinely nice person despite being screamed at by everyone for being useless. Why must you all bully him so?


Anyway, scumread, actually, why haven't I voted Yaesulf yet?

##Vote Yaesulf

Yaesulf, I want your hot takes on the matter.

help

NucleusWaffles

Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1071 on: April 19, 2020, 06:08:03 AM »
Serela is suspicious but I'd like to know more.

As for PX and Fabloo, I've realised the error of my ways and converted. Praise the goddesses. \o/

Specifically I am offended at this post

cut by
help


I want to lynch banana spritzee, because him flipping provides vital information over whether a) Bard is scum, jetpacked to protect his slot and game from a D1 lynch b) banana spirtzee is town, coasting is entirely due to incompetence c) banana spirtzee is town pr, which is coasting deliberately and we need him to win us the game where tracker was gunned D1 and masons (if true, self-claimed)

In fact banana spritzee dying would simplify so many threads of possibilities I just need him dead to actually make use of D1 interactions, at least from my perspective. However, having him dead is the worst thing if he is in fact what we need to win this power game which we are on a disadvantage of, so I would rather talk about lynching him and develop new points and hopefully the game state changes enough so we can do so without lynching him

However talking about things waste time energy and other players' attention and ultimately we need votes to do anything so I am being careful with my words but Disquited you are on L-2 and I do emphathise with your pressure so I hope this will be the first and last time I need to spill my guts okay press send

NucleusWaffles

Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1072 on: April 19, 2020, 06:12:16 AM »
Also, I am bringing my loudspeaker to everyone present, 36 pages to play at D2 is unreasonably long.

Especially when the converstion is carried by 1/3 of the playerlist. Like, involve everyone else, unless developing a sense of exclusion is what you are trying to do.

Namedrop, namedrop, namedrop, please. And not just the same few people, make it broad and about everyone. And hopefully also with data and statistics to back it up.

Tom, as a fan of statistics, can you give us some juicy numbers on the times when each person is mentioning another person? Like the Facebook tagging algorithm/ Twitter mentions analysis.

NucleusWaffles

Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1073 on: April 19, 2020, 06:28:39 AM »
Finally, before I off I need to rep this great song.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkDasPSBMms

Polaris

Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1074 on: April 19, 2020, 06:33:52 AM »
##Unvote
##Vote: Daiya


whatever, logic is garbage. i've decided this action makes perfect sense

Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1075 on: April 19, 2020, 07:00:45 AM »
My hot take? I don't know if it's worth much but I'll give it a shot.

If we're talking about you wanting to lynch me, I'm not going to bother defending myself. At this point I've basically accepted that I'm eventually going to get myself mislynched so I'm just trying to get information out of people before then.

If we're talking about Banana Spritzee then I'm actually fine with lynching him, I agree that Bard was very suspicious. What I'm not sure I agree on is how much information we'd get out of that? Probably not as much as if we lynched my top (and maybe only) scumread, you, NucleusWaffles.

Also you seem to be in the same post praising for Tom for his graphing and statistics, while also at the same time saying you'd rather not vote because it'll be tracked by those same statistics?

Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1076 on: April 19, 2020, 07:16:08 AM »
Err, not quite in the same post but close enough.

Disquieted

  • ⑨_⑨
  • aka smartbomb
Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1077 on: April 19, 2020, 11:04:32 AM »
Mmm. Let's see.

Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1078 on: April 19, 2020, 11:31:20 AM »
Polaris I know you've given up on logic but, what made you pick Daiya over Disquieted, Serela, or NucleusWaffles? What caused you to change your mind on him, because I remember you saying you were going to ease up on him?

Disquieted

  • ⑨_⑨
  • aka smartbomb
Re: Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Day Two)
« Reply #1079 on: April 19, 2020, 11:40:13 AM »
So let's talk about a few pieces of confidence that I have so we can get things in perspective.

NNR is town. I'm going to ignore everything he's doing and focusing on the fact that he really thinks I'm pushing him because of his character. It means he cares about his character in a towny manner, and I don't want to spend more than the necessary time on this.

Raikaria is probably town for a similar virtue that he doesn't actually know how alignments are going to be set in this game. Honestly, I don't know either, and maybe the good guys are town or whatever. Who knows. But Rai doesn't really know. So let's stop here before going into the mess that is people's posts and reads.

Then we have people who have posted stuff. I'm still getting townvibes off BBM right now, how he's talking sounds like he's being genuine and he is struggling and if I'm being snowed, that's on me. I'll sort this out later.

Then we have Tom. Now I can plot what he's doing but he's really taken a very lazy seat in this game and I can plot it out from a town perspective but it is significantly worse than yesterday, he's posted graphs and naked voted people and that's it. This may be because he got basically made fun of on Day 1 as town, instead of being mafia and phoning it in. He needs to improve.

There's also this post:
Alright, so I've figured out the best way to survive day one is to just lurk since without data everything is meaningless.  Everyone who's said a lot of things has gotten votes and those who've said the least have not.  I should have figured this out sooner and shut up but I wanted to be active considering this is my first game.

Which is, uh incredibly problematic. How this is problematic is best left up as an exercise to the reader.

We have Banana Spritzee who I don't really trust with his entrance, not going to lie. Bardiche was very very town, but Banana Spritzee is playing the AWOL card and not caring what's going on and I refuse to let that sort of behaviour fly, especially since that's also what he does as scum. It's nonsense. He's also got some weird balance of knowing what's going on but trying to pretend he doesn't care? It's hard to describe, call tomorrow.

Neither player has lost enough towncred to be a consideration for me right now. I will lynch Banana Spritzee cause if he doesn't play games I can be more than irritable regardless of how I feel about Bardiche. But let's move on, this is me complaining, either they do something or they won't and I'll complain regardless.

Yaersulf is someone I'm surprised isn't getting more attention right now and it's really adding to this strange state that Fabloo is talking about. Like, I'm not against it, cause Yaersulf's reaction to Fabloo's secret stuff is very townie and makes sense cause you don't get upset at a supposed cop claiming you yourself are guilty unless you're town, right? That's how that ended up. But that's just been accepted as kosher. And I guess I'll just use this as a thought about how scum don't really feel like taking initiative this game. It's a very out there read that involves a lot of the circumstances in this game but yeah. I don't think a mislynch is being pushed by scum, they're just letting town push other town and not even trying to open up other options. Whether that's sheeping other cases or just not having the thread presence, who knows. Maybe that might be a good observation for other people.

I don't feel like Serela is scum, but I can't exactly say Serela is town. If Polaris is assessing Serela's scum meta properly, well... meh. This is kind of a locked door for me and I really don't know how to judge him, and quite honestly I'm running out of scumreads, so he'll reside here until I think more about either Banana Spritzee or Tom.

We have Polaris, who I will leave in this category because this is the Polaris category. That is all.

And so that leaves a few people left. I feel like properly examining Daiya makes sense once everyone's given more than lipservice to him, so that'll wait. I have further comments on him that I need to nail down looking at him again though.

And I still don't know what to make of NucleusWaffles. It's not the "man this guy is weird" category. It's something else. When someone doesn't consider himself a town PR (assumedly cause he says he's weak, but how does he even have a judge of that? This is his first game!), when someone doesn't die on N1 - like say the mafia is dodging a doc. Zwerdjib's a pretty natural doc dodge for a multitude of reasons, but why wouldn't you hit the weakest town PR? If zwerdjib wasn't the tracker the night would've been questionable.

Every post he makes is word salad yes, but if you actually try and read his posts... nothing of consequence is really said. I don't need a summary of the game, I need thoughts on the game. Maybe that's just his thing. I have doubts.

This isn't even getting into the role part of him. That's something I don't want to push too much on my own for obvious reasons. But I have problems with that as well. If he's a flavourcop, why doesn't he just say what his results are? That's only one of the many questions that I'd like to ask but won't.