Neo Forum Mafia - Game Over

[O4rfish]

I'm looking forward to his thoughts about stuff.

[Kilgamayan]

Vote Count 7.1

O4rfish (Rumia) (0):
Dormio (Ran Yakumo) (0):
Serela (Koishi Komeiji) (0):
ActionDan (Rinnosuke Morichika) (1): Dormio Ergo Sum, Serela
Niektory (Yukari Yakumo) (0):

Not voting (4): O4rfish, Serela, ActionDan, Niektory

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. You have some tremendous number of nanoseconds remaining to vote.

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

query (Playerbase)
{
        cout <<(Turbolynch)
}

[Serela]

i was curious about what dan had to say but it's kinda starting to look like he was just hoping to figure that part out later zzzzzzzz

i'm going to bed first though

[ActionDan]

I don't think doc and cop and masons and vig exist in the same game.

I've been thinking about it and I don't think any combination of 4 scum roles makes up for the fact that there are 3 confirmable roles (possibly 4 if a kill is prevented via doc since setup forces lynchs and night kills) + a potential follow the cop scenario. Obviously, there are ways for scum to get around this based on what's flipped, but there is no way to neutralize an advantage like that that town already has from the get go. I also don't think that Kilga or any other mod, thinks on paper that doc/cop/masons in one game is a good idea regardless of scum power. Furthermore, based on NKs, based on who has flipped as scum so far, there's no way scum would not have used what tools they have to do more damage to the power roles that have come forward by day 2-3.

At the moment I find Oarfish's doc targets questionable. Why fabloo N2 over a mason? Why not serela anytime N3 on? What determines above 50% certainty to be protected?

As for serela, well I did see that case but as far as I'm concerned it boils down to, "everything dan has done with scum is neutral interaction" although I see more of it being serela straining to put interactions that quite clearly show scum thought of me as a mislynch as instead neutral. If the goal is to lynch me and handwave reasons not to, then I can see why that was opted for.

Anyway town can afford one mislynch today, so I'm going to think about who I endorse for the lynch in a likely 3p scenario with Serela/Oarfish/Niektory.

[Niektory]

[O4rfish]

Nice, this is the type of angle I wanted Abu to take.

Serela and I have each claimed 3-shot. Abu claimed 1-shot. If either Serela or I was scum, that would be 4 town night actions for the entire game.
Roleblocker and Bus Driver are all about messing with town night actions. Would Kilga put both of them in a game like that?

[Serela]

I agree that town probably got a bit much (although scum admittedly has enough PRs to fight back, it's ridiculously swingy) but I would be -really- surprised if scum!o4rfish thought it'd be a good idea to claim yet ANOTHER PR when everyone expects a vanilla claim and he's already been copped town anyway so he has zero need to stir the pot to defend himself.

Ontop of having to actually defend targets. I think overall they weren't that bad although I definitely agree masons and me should have been docced earlier, but, when you look at the nightkills that actually occurred, o4rfish's logic in some way apparently was closer to success than our suggestions would've been :VV WELP??

If anything that weird logic lineup is a very hazy line supporting o4r scum I guess, but, really, I think it's more believable with what we already know about the setup that kilga just figured the two faction's power somehow balanced out and actually put the doc in, than it is that scum!o4rfish decided to claim a doc over nothing. It also sort of balances out how the vig removes a town mislynch with numbers...??

that being said I guess you can argue o4rfish as scum wanted the refuge in sheer audacity to stack ontop of being copped but i really just don't think that's likely when I was already evaluating o4r!scum and completely dismissing it...

[Serela]

honestly at this point i'd wager we have a town!dan legitimately hoping to help town win because he's still aware we're gonna lynch his face in a n y w a y so why go to this if he's the last scum, but it doesn't discount scum making their token survival effort enough that I'd lynch o4r over him. at BEST i'd just be willing to do niek first and then dan, instead of the other way around

[Serela]

##Vote niektory

[ActionDan]

@Oarfish (and a little of serela)

Yes he would, because all of those actions are so powerful with masons already on the board. Plus it's been done before where there are certain powers granted to scum that may not have actual utility wrt town power but are there for comfort. (for example ninja without tracker). I can't stress enough how much raw power town has with vig/masons/cop/doc. Without cop/doc its still a pretty powerful town.

I'm also expecting a GF if Serela is cop because what's here isn't powerful enough and scum NK choices.

Ontop of having to actually defend targets. I think overall they weren't that bad although I definitely agree masons and me should have been docced earlier, but, when you look at the nightkills that actually occurred, o4rfish's logic in some way apparently was closer to success than our suggestions would've been :VV WELP??

If anything that weird logic lineup is a very hazy line supporting o4r scum I guess, but, really, I think it's more believable with what we already know about the setup that kilga just figured the two faction's power somehow balanced out and actually put the doc in, than it is that scum!o4rfish decided to claim a doc over nothing. It also sort of balances out how the vig removes a town mislynch with numbers...??

that being said I guess you can argue o4rfish as scum wanted the refuge in sheer audacity to stack ontop of being copped but i really just don't think that's likely when I was already evaluating o4r!scum and completely dismissing it...

NK choices can inform what to claim. Oarfish claimed last so you can notice that town is missing a protective role and fill that slot easily enough. A vanilla claim doesn't change GF concerns nor would it improve Oarfish's position. As for the vig. doc doesn't balance vig. A missed vig shot is simply a selfish town lynch in equivalent value.

As for whether Oarfish would avoid claiming to not shake things up. True in the sense I highly doubt had all vanilla claims come out, I wouldn't have been choo choo lynched. But then, after that, there's still another to go, and I really don't think it'd be full speed ahead at that point. Tbh I didn't have a good impression of who would be lynched in that scenario assuming one of you or Dormio got to kingmake.

[O4rfish]

I think out of us 5, the most likely player to be scum is Dan. I don't think he can post anything that would make me vote anyone over him today, but he could post something that would be useful if he does flip town.

Cut - Dan, you're saying the scum is Serela or me. Let's assume Dormio is killed.  You need to determine whether the scum is Serela or me, and then persuade Niektory to vote that way.

I guess you should also persuade me or Serela that Niektory is town.

Can you do all that?

[Serela]

niektory won't vote himself, i highly doubt dormio will vote niektory, and o4rfish just stated they don't think there's any possible way they will, and we're probably just gonna lynch them tomorrow if dan flips town (which he very well may not) so eh I don't have a horse in this fight

I would like to personally request that o4rfish gets to be the one hammering, once he's gotten whatever response he wants from dan that satisfies him

##unvote
##Vote actiondan

[ActionDan]

Well the easiest way to start would be to persuade both of you that mechanics make it highly likely, that not all power role claims are true.

Failing that, which currently I am it seems, I'd have to read up and determine who's more likely scum. Currently I do think its you but I'm not certain.

But I can say there's nothing I can do to persuade you that based on Niektory's posts alone she'd be town. Mostly because I haven't quite found anything convincing in them yet.

[ActionDan]

That's a pretty convenient vote there.

But fine then. I'll look forward to seeing how things pan out tomorrow.

[Serela]

Yeah, when it comes to niektory, like... they're new, that's fine, but they've been low-presence very consistently all game so there's really nothing there to actually declare them town past theoretical townslips like d1 daytalk conversation (which could have been faked?) and wifom over nightkills that I don't think really applies to their slot in any effective way either.

You could argue people like BT wanted to lynch them, but anyone going into d3 would have thought people like Niek to be the scum who're gonna get lurker lynched by endgame so may as well bus, nor was niek ever really the scum's top lynch choice anyway, just someone for 'undetermined time later'.

Once PoE declares you can't rely on the thereotical townslip, there's nothing left to suggest niek isn't scum coasting by all game long.

[Serela]

not all PR claims are true but before the claim I already was in the position of 'can't imagine lynching o4rfish over dan or niektory' so, nothing really changed there

[ActionDan]

So you'll just ignore new information?

Scum make mistakes.

[Serela]

Yeah, when it comes to niektory, like... they're new, that's fine, but they've been low-presence very consistently all game

elaboration, like
even later in the game niek barely ever posted real opinions on anything other than not liking my claim

this also means during critical times like EoD3, niek was mostly just 'serela you're being strange!' and not weighing in a lot on the actual town/scum wagon we had going, other than eventually voicing being ok with consolidating onto zwerd to avoid no lynch

niek has been coastin' coastin'

I'm not IGNORING new information. I've looked at it. I've analyzed it. I think it can realistically be town. I think there's good reasons scum probably wouldn't do this. Scum under pressure CAN make mistakes. I wouldn't be totally shocked if o4r flipped scum. But I really, really wouldn't bet on it over the person who's done extremely little and stayed out of everything all game over here, Niektory.

[ActionDan]

I also hope Dormio, in the case he's alive tomorrow (which is completely possible), doesn't snap vote without any thought again.

I think it can realistically be town

guess that's that then

[Serela]

yes I don't think it'd be good game design

but that's not to say I think that means it didn't happen anyway.

[Serela]

I also hope Dormio, in the case he's alive tomorrow (which is completely possible), doesn't snap vote without any thought again.

while this can be a thing, at the same time

the game definitely feels like it was basically done on d4 and we've just been lynching down the reads list since then

while the order of the nightkills has been strange, in the end, none of them have been surprising. half the living players got role cleared so nothing changed. the uncleared town reads were universally held and very strongly so. game state really hasn't been budged in any meaningful way since early D4 apart from o4rfish claiming another PR

[Serela]

you could argue 'game state didn't budge because you guys turbolynched, smothering discussion'

No, not really, I highly doubt there was anything meaningful to say and that's why people were fine with turbolynching. D4 was over as soon as SB posted and indicated he was done playing (not like that was the sole reason it was done, but everything else had happened by then) and nothing of any worth occurred after despite people dragging it out to deadline.

game was already 'solved', if we solved it wrong and o4rfish is scum, welp, good job scum (or uh, nice rng pull that the scum I copped was the godfather?) but even if I keep reevaluating it ten times it still solves the same way

[O4rfish]

Dan you sound depressed. You are still going to make a case against me or Serela, right?

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

define Statement123
{
        So can somebody explain to me why we're dragging this day phase on for this meaningless drivel?
}
query (Playerbase)
{
        ask (Statement123)
        return (Hammer)
}

[Kilgamayan]

Vote Count 7.2

O4rfish (Rumia) (0):
Dormio (Ran Yakumo) (0):
Serela (Koishi Komeiji) (0):
ActionDan (Rinnosuke Morichika) (2): Dormio Ergo Sum, Serela, Serela
Niektory (Yukari Yakumo) (0): Serela

Not voting (3): O4rfish, ActionDan, Niektory

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. You have less than 14 hours remaining to vote.

ActionDan is at L-1!

[Niektory]

So can somebody explain to me why we're dragging this day phase on for this meaningless drivel?

At least there's a fair chance it's the last one so you won't suffer much longer.

8:30 hours left.

[ActionDan]

define Statement123
{
        So can somebody explain to me why we're dragging this day phase on for this meaningless drivel?
}
query (Playerbase)
{
        ask (Statement123)
        return (Hammer)
}

define Statement1
{
Dormio do you have any thoughts at all after I flip town or are you planning to speedlynch through lylo too?
}
query (Player_Dormio)
{
         ask (Statement1)
         return (Null)
}

[O4rfish]

Dan, do you have something for us or not?

[O4rfish]

##Vote: ActionDan