So like look what I just said above. Note the fact that the paragraph here is literally tossed word salad, Conqueror is off-guard, he doesn't know what he's gonna do, he's trying to hide the fact that he kinda believes the claim (notice he doesn't consider Abu might be just lying as a mafia goon and accepts it's a vig claim of either alignment and that he's shooting Duskfall) and later he goes off on Abu when Abu, well, goes off on everyone else.
This post and the heel turn Conqueror makes to eventually lynch Abu is... like very opportunistic and I can't see how this comes from a town alignment. It's a very classic pressure slip.
Nah. This is pretty much how I've always responded to claims in the past (and you can check with people who've played with me before.
uh, vig claim is pretty yikes because it's the classic "let me live for one more day" claim...but it is confirmable if it goes off i guess.
I did think he might be lying as a mafia goon, but if he was mafia goon then it's highly likely he would shoot duskfall to "prove" his claim instead of just getting autolynched the next day. That's why I mentioned a mafia vig. I'm pretty
sure I said this elsewhere as well?
This post and the heel turn Conqueror makes to eventually lynch Abu is... like very opportunistic and I can't see how this comes from a town alignment. It's a very classic pressure slip.
Tell me more about the heel turn you're talking about since you apparently "can't see how it comes from a town alignment." I'm sorry, I'm not going to let other people brand me as opportunistic just for pushing a lynch and trying to evaluate it instead of letting other people take the reins. Let's play along with your scenario and say I'm opportunistic mafia in that situation. Under what conditions would I not just let Abu "confirm" himself and get a vig off that night? I'll let you think about the implications of that and that given the flips we have so far and the rest of your reads. Now consider the situation where I'm town. Why do I not continue to lynch Abu instead of another wagon given his responses at the end of the day?
I'd just run with that, but then we get...
The tracker claim
What town reason does Conqueror have to make the claim on Shadoweh?
I made the claim on Shadoweh because it was the only way to get her to post and try to get a read on her and possibly slip up in the process. What scum reason would I have to make the claim on Shadoweh? What if her reaction got her to post more and "confirmed" herself to the point where no one wanted to lynch her?
Is there any evaluation Conqueror does, as a player in the game, on the fact that Shadoweh basically no-sold the tracker claim? It is just one and done, he rolls in the tracker claim and doesn't really evaluate how Shadoweh reacts to it and considers it townie? Cause when you're dealing with something like this, when you're making this sort of play, the reaction most of the time is to instinctively townread them if they don't fall over. Reading through Conqueror's ISO I get this:
Now I don't know about you but I don't really see a hint of forgiveness here. Like, I just talked with zwerdjib about how important it is to consider what town!X should have done. Same thing's happening here, except with zwerdjib it sounds like he's having fun trying to tunnel someone to death. Conqueror feels like he's pushing through a mislynch instead.
I've never instinctively townread people for not falling to gambits. The most recent game where I did this was in Twitch Plays Pokemon on SF where I scumread Refa's reaction to Shinori's gambit. (I was town, and Shinori and Refa were also town. Oops!). For the context of what I did D2 though, Shadoweh had a fake guilty claimed on her in Angel Beats mafia here. Based on her immediate reaction here I had a good guess she knew I was gambiting:
Conq are you trying to troll me by reminding me of past MotK Trauma? I appreciate your committment to making it just like the old days. :Thonk:
But I decided to push on for a bit further in case she would crumble after a few more pushes after I didn't relent(she didn't).
So yeah, after that I figured Shadoweh was probably VT or mafia who didn't action the previous night with the slight chance of her being super psychic mafia. Here's the thing that pinged me about that response nevertheless though. Shadoweh had been super low activity through all of d1, not responding to half the stuff directed at her. Suddenly on D2 I have a result on her and she shows up in less than half and hour and starts making posts. I even mentioned that in the post you quoted. Are you saying that isn't suspicious timing? Because it rang all my alarm bells.
So why would I forgive her over that given the rest of her posting. If we're talking about forgiveness, I let up on her a bit after she started interacting with me more.
How he's playing
Conqueror's just... really passive. Like, Serela and raikaria are extremely NOT passive and it's kind of ridiculous, yes, but I'm reviewing Conqueror's Day 2 and then Day 3. He's got an extremely narrow scope on Day 2, it's kind of nothing but Shadoweh and like when you're comparing to the literal fixer here Serela or Nuxl to a point it's really clear he doesn't really care. So like, I get that he's dumped on Day 3, it follows from a town perspective.
It... just doesn't feel like he's tunnelling at all. Like he said, he moved off from Shadoweh to Duskfall. I don't know why Duskfall, really, I'm staring at these posts and I have no idea why Duskfall over any other player in the game. So like that's really bad for him cause it means he's evaluating other options, right? But he's not saying anything about them.
I've been increasingly passive because it's pretty clear no one cares about this game, so why should I? And look, people are already attacking me for pushing lynches when I could just do nothing all game and vote along at deadline pouting and saying "aw shucks I don't strongly scumread any of these lynches" and bam 0 flack. My scope on D2 was shadoweh because that was a read I knew I could solve if we kept pressing. I did mention why Duskfall in my posts on D2 before I switched to him. It's annoying that I have to keep pointing this out to people and at this point I don't know if it's deliberate.
Not fully caught up with the thread but wanted to catch nuxl while he was still here.
@nuxl what's your current read on tommy? he's massively dropped off d2 to the point where I can't tell what he's thinking anymore when I remember I could still get a general idea of where he stood in the game d1. "oarfish town conq town raik town" as the only reads list of his is like, okay, is that it? I remember him saying in MU spec chat that his town meta was to be super aggressive and get into fights with people and his scum meta was the opposite or something like that and although D1 felt like the former D2 really feels like the latter atm.
Problem is that Shadoweh is also voting for...being self-pres against a claimed vig when I don't feel like that's a strong reason to think he's mafia.
And like his entire back and forth with me and the brick wall that was raikaria was extremely blocky really. He doesn't feel like he's really evaluating anything properly, he's not thinking about the game in terms of who is scum and who is town. This entire thing on raikaria is him being wrong, and while lambasting someone for being wrong is all well and good I don't really feel like Conqueror's hunting for alignments even though he's giving the impression. Like, Duskfall's sitting there on Serelawagon being... Duskfall, there's no other way to describe it, look at his reaction yourself. Conqueror's voted him, he should be a big red target, and Conqueror's off getting mad about raikaria instead. He has about fifty rereads to go through but like. Again, it's very clear that like, openly, he's not been thinking about anyone other than Shadoweh on Day 2. And like I highlighted, it wasn't really that good.
You're right that me going off on raikaria was about him being wrong and not because I think he's necessarily maf. Letting people create bad associative reads on you is bad, so I wanted to nip it in the bud. I said myself I still have a townread on him regardless, but I need to check up on that read. You wanted me to get mad about duskfall? Why do you think I said this?
his serela read is outright bad too because he misreps serela's case on shadoweh. honestly i'd purge everyone voting serela who is sheeping raik's case because i dont see what's sheepworthy about this. you could cherrypick almost anyone's votes the way raik did.
i found people who were sheeping the serela case scummier than the one who made it in the first place. Like, there's nothing more to be said about what duskfall did. you can say i could have pushed him more but tbh I feel less confident about him even after shadoweh flipped town.
- according to Refa he's outed by choice of nightkills. Now I was briefly aware Fabloo was a cool person but I didn't really pay attention to his walls. If they directly were trying to run over Conqueror and he died over two masons AND Conqueror is trying to brush that under the rug, that's super bad.
- Nobody cares about him being mafia, really. Given how the game's been going and, well, kind of what Oarfish said to start this day, yeah, not really a big thing but it's really ew.
fabloo was not directly trying to run over me. please point out where they were trying to do that because they were not.
you say nobody cares about being me being potential mafia but a few people opened up the day with suspicions on me. and now you've posted this. :thinking:
