Neo Forum Mafia - Game Over

[Serela]

the obvious answer to that is "scumhunting!!" but when you look at the PL the possible scum are

two lurkers, and, three people who I was townreading at the end of d2

this is some painful stuff ;_;

re:defending I mean I'm currently the biggest wagon I think so I sure hope I'm defending myself!!

[Disquieted]

Maybe you should consider that? Cause what you're describing a theoretical mafia!Serela doing here (which afaict is not all what he's doing right now and you seem to be overly generalising for the sake of your push)  is exactly what I'm seeing out of a town!Serela. Is town not allowed to defend themselves?

[Conqueror]

Raikaria i have issues with your entire VCA post so I'm just going to take this apart right now.

1: Serela was involved in both mislynches. Serela was also one of the first on Shadoweh's wagon and quite big in the lynch of Abu.

2: O4rfish was also involved in both mislynches.

3: While Conqueror was not on Shadoweh's final wagon, he flipped on and off her three times and generally was pushing heavily on Shadoweh throughout Day 2. He was also one of the earlier people on Shadoweh's counterwagon. Perhaps scum letting town ride the wagon he pushed to start with?

4: Refa; Duskfall and zwej have all ended days on Town or Likely Town wagons.

5: Most people who have voted O4rfish are Town or Semi-Confirmed town.

6: It's worth noting Prims voted Serela during Day 1. He then died. It's also worth noting that in Fabloo's Readonomicon he states 'Do not Townread Serela'.

7: I decided to basically ctrl+f Serela in Fabloo's posts; it's mostly saying he struggles to read Serela; to the point he struggles to even really tell who Serela wants lynched.

8: However, Fabloo does propose a Conq+Shadoweh team, so maybe Conq scum opinion was why?

---

I'm actually starting to suspect a Conq+Serela scumteam. I'm gonna go and readread Serela in particular [And any interactions with Conq]. I had suspicions on him D1; but during D2 I lost them a bit. But now they're rising again. The fact Prims randomly died D1 after being one of the few to vote Serela; and Serela being on both mislynches is quite suspicious in of itself. Then there's Fabloo pointing out a suspicious moment where Conq did not vote for Serela.

1, 2, 3, and 4: All of these points can be summarized by "these people were voting town on a lynch." But what does that actually mean? You pointed out the D1 voters on Abu and saying they're scummy for voting there? but if you're town you should be looking at votes on you too. This is actually a pretty massive red flag, possible perspective slip?
But in any case all this analysis does is push the people who are actually moving the game and trying to vote wagons to lynch. It doesn't say anything about whether these are townies or mafia more likely to be pushing the lynch; it doesn't analyze why they're there or even look at whether they were just there for lynch consolidation. It's lazy disingenuous analysis and I hate every single word of it.
5. please expand on what this means. Does being voted by people you think are town make someone scum? This is the kind of statement that only works if you analyze the competing wagons and look at the vote movement around them but I don't see that.
6, 7, 8: nk analysis: no real comment on the serela stuff but you're picking out stuff they said about serela and not stuff they said about other people. fabloo said "if duskfall is town then i think conq/shadoweh are scum together." shadoweh got lynched and flipped town, so why would i have a reason to kill fabloo? this is what i hate about surface level nk analysis. i hate talking about it in general because it's wifomy but if you even look at fabloo's positions at the end of the day your logic still doesn't hold up.

re: the "suspicious moment" i didn't vote for serela was addressed when i talked to fabloo earlier. It's because i was voting shadoweh, why would i vote serela?

[Conqueror]

But trying to put things Rai has said on a sliding scale instead of rolling it all into "posts bad", his oarfish read is better than his Serela read. No?

i can't say it's better because all interaction reads on me are naturally going to be wrong given im town. you could pick out a number of people randomly and make interaction reads on them.
his serela read is outright bad too because he misreps serela's case on shadoweh. honestly i'd purge everyone voting serela who is sheeping raik's case because i dont see what's sheepworthy about this. you could cherrypick almost anyone's votes the way raik did.

[zwerdjib]

Maybe you should consider that? Cause what you're describing a theoretical mafia!Serela doing here (which afaict is not all what he's doing right now and you seem to be overly generalising for the sake of your push)  is exactly what I'm seeing out of a town!Serela. Is town not allowed to defend themselves?

not when theyre about 70% of his posts. maybe more. i didnt count, but i read to start of day.

theyre okay defenses, i was just hoping he would be doing more

and youre free to apply this standard to me, go right ahead

but that doesnt make me less right

[Conqueror]

I find it interesting his D2 Duskfall vote seems to be mostly 'calling his bluff'. Interestingly this is shortly after chastising Shadoweh for a Duskfall vote.

this is taking the entire thing out of context. i was calling shadoweh's bluff because she sat on a duskfall vote all day and didn't really push it hard only to consolidate on oarfish for unknown reasons. did you read any of my other reasons in my iso for voting duskfall?

I do find it interesting Conq asks O4rfish for opinions specifically on himself; Serela and Shadoweh. Shadoweh is the main wagon at this point so fair enough. Serela is the counterwagon that isn't O4rfish himself; so also fair. But why is Conq asking about O4rfish's read on himself? This isn't a thing Conq does much. It just gives me a weird feeling.

What's weirder is O4rfish only just stated his opinion on Conq in #1212 and Conq asks O4rfish for it in #1233. O4rfish dosen't answer this question, and Conq has had a pattern this game of pushing people to answer his questions and getting annoyed when they are not answered. He's done so with me.

And yet; this time; he asks O4rfish a question he just answered [Suggesting he's not actually reading O4rfish?] and dosen't keep pushing O4rfish to answer it.

this is an outright misrep and you're pulling this out of your ass. the post i was asking about was this:

Conq and Shadoweh and Serela have played many games with each other.  If they have a strong read, it's probably accurate.  If they're town, they'll tell the truth about having a strong read.  However, if they're scum, they could choose between a true read for false reasons, or a false read for false reasons.

you're right that I forgot to follow up on it but it's because i got caught up in trying to read shadoweh and duskfall and oarfish just completely fell off my radar at that point.

[Conqueror]

not when theyre about 70% of his posts. maybe more. i didnt count, but i read to start of day.

theyre okay defenses, i was just hoping he would be doing more

and youre free to apply this standard to me, go right ahead

but that doesnt make me less right

wdym by doing more, like what?
i dont get either your or dusk's votes

[Conqueror]

honestly i kinda want to reevaluate my raik read now

[Kilgamayan]

Apologies for the delay on this, I've been quite busy today.

Vote Count 3.1

O4rfish (Rumia) (2): Dormio Ergo Sum, Raikaria
Dormio (Ran Yakumo) (0):
Conqueror (Tenshi Hinanawi) (0): Raikaria
Serela (Koishi Komeiji) (2): Raikaria, Duskfall98, zwerdjib
sb (Sanae Kochiya) (0):
Raikaria (Sunny Milk) (0):
zwerdjib (Yuyuko Saigyouji) (0):
Disquieted (Reimu Hakurei) (0):
ActionDan (Rinnosuke Morichika) (2): sb, Serela
NekoNekoRex (Chen) (0):
Duskfall98 (Shinki) (0):
Nuxl (Youki Konpaku) (0):
Niektory (Yukari Yakumo) (0):

Not voting (7): O4rfish, Conqueror, Disquieted, ActionDan, NekoNekoRex, Nuxl, Niektory

with 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. You have a tremendous number of nanoseconds remaining.

ActionDan has been prodded for inactivity. Patience has worn thin here; the prod PM has been worded accordingly.

[Conqueror]

Its also amazingly tilting that nuxl is modspewed town but completely in his scum meta

Tell me more about nuxl's scum meta and how he's in it. Gimme his town meta too.

[zwerdjib]

wdym by doing more, like what?
i dont get either your or dusk's votes

hmm, he could be:
giving thoughts on this current argument
giving a read on someone other than dan
actively advocating a dan vote, like he did with shadoweh d2
being present more in general
other things

i mean in general youre asking the wrong person. i havent played active town in years, and i literally just went on a triple scum roll streak, broken by this game.

[Disquieted]

i can't say it's better because all interaction reads on me are naturally going to be wrong given im town. you could pick out a number of people randomly and make interaction reads on them.
his serela read is outright bad too because he misreps serela's case on shadoweh. honestly i'd purge everyone voting serela who is sheeping raik's case because i dont see what's sheepworthy about this. you could cherrypick almost anyone's votes the way raik did.

So, framing this a bit. You want to disregard Rai's analysis cause you know you yourself are town. I mean, fine. But you're really replying to me in a very lazy way cause you're really pushing this whole "I disregard this cause I know I'm town" without actually, like, touching on how much merit it could have.

Like, say Raikaria was replaced by a more confident person, a... entirely dogged persistent person. This isn't a sell on why his posts are bad, it's results oriented and this "replacement Raikaria" so to speak would tunnel you to the end of time because you haven't given a good enough answer.

Like the way you're treating this is very much a brush-off and attempt to wave away the argument without actually looking into the argument. Cause like...

I think the main part is that raikaria's case on o4rfish aims more towards that o4rfish really isn't pushing or casing anywhere. He states his reads, and then kind of... doesn't want to do anything with it. And I feel like you missed that. And I'm not sure why you're concentrating more on this Oar/Conq team that Rai keeps putting up without really thinking about Oar on his own.

I kinda don't know why you want to purge this Serela wagon either, it's really short-sighted and it's really a very open statement. It's like... also a very absolute statement and I've been kind of tossing around the concept that I don't actually know where you're at in terms of where you want to start here. What's going on here is that you're really digging into raikaria's wall but I don't see how you're relating that to scumhunting. Taking you with my own perspective of being here as a replacement, I literally have a completely blank slate on what your reads are. And you're scumreading Rai, which isn't a surprise, but it's a very reactive bent.

@zwerdjib I think 70% is surprisingly harsh, and I've pointed out now that you don't really have a standard of "more". Like what's your standard of "more" here? Playing like you? Cause he's kinda surpassed that here regardless of his alignment.

[Conqueror]

Conqueror - given Shadoweh was Town, what views or arguments of hers should be reused? What from her do you still disagree with? Same question in re Prims, Fabloo

was chewing on this question. i know people say "listen to dead townies" but dead townies are also often wrong and they're not always killed for their reads. i dislike reusing arguments because it's fairly easy for mafia to kill a good town player who's wrong about some reads and then take only the arguments that benefit them.
shadoweh's only real read was duskfall but it doesnt mean she was necessarily right about it. i'm still evaluating dusk myself.
 fabloo was looking at shadoweh, me, duskfall as their main pushes iirc. i obv disagree with the read on me and shadoweh flipped town. that leaves duskfall and a bunch of minor suspicions. i've already said my piece about duskfall.
prims is probably the most interesting kill because a number of people suspected him but it's impossible to tell if he was killed for having a correct reads list, fearkilled, or something else entirely. i had mostly similar reads with him on d1 but my reads have evolved since then since we've had 2 days.

[sb]

heeeello eeverone i had a little bit more to drink roday than i expected i will try to catch up ebfroe sleeping

[Serela]

giving thoughts on this current argument

i don't like any of raikaria's cases? i mean the main arguments going on are voting serela which i've kind of responded to

giving a read on someone other than dan

gave you a whole post of my reads for the game my dude, granted i'm supposed to properly reread conq still I guess. The reads have more elaboration in d2 but after the upheaval and the reconsidering I'd say these town reads are not going anywhere today (I have to admit that PoE alone makes it look like there's UNFORTUNATELY likely to be a scum in them though u g h but that's something to worry about MULTIPLE days from now, i have literally 0 interest in lynching there today even if that includes Rai who I'm incapable of agreeing with atm)

actively advocating a dan vote, like he did with shadoweh d2

it's very early in the day and it's a lurker lynch, it's important to have discussion on the other players even if we do end up lynching Dan. And I'm not going to dwell on the topic because it's uncouth but a modkill is uh, possible *cough*

being present more in general

i have several posts on every page of d3 and have responded to most of what's occurred today (directly related to myself or otherwise) so honestly I can't tell where you're coming from here

HI S-oh no he's drunk

[zwerdjib]

i don't like any of raikaria's cases? i mean the main arguments going on are voting serela which i've kind of responded to
gave you a whole post of my reads for the game my dude, granted i'm supposed to properly reread conq still I guess. The reads have more elaboration in d2 but after the upheaval and the reconsidering I'd say these town reads are not going anywhere today (I have to admit that PoE alone makes it look like there's UNFORTUNATELY likely to be a scum in them though u g h but that's something to worry about MULTIPLE days from now, i have literally 0 interest in lynching there today even if that includes Rai who I'm incapable of agreeing with atm)
it's very early in the day and it's a lurker lynch, it's important to have discussion on the other players even if we do end up lynching Dan. And I'm not going to dwell on the topic because it's uncouth but a modkill is uh, possible *cough*
i have several posts on every page of d3 and have responded to most of what's occurred today (directly related to myself or otherwise) so honestly I can't tell where you're coming from here

HI S-oh no he's drunk

yeah feel free to ignore the reads point. i missed your readslist whoops

[zwerdjib]

@zwerdjib I think 70% is surprisingly harsh, and I've pointed out now that you don't really have a standard of "more". Like what's your standard of "more" here? Playing like you? Cause he's kinda surpassed that here regardless of his alignment.

yeah i recounted. 37% is better, but still. recent posts would be a higher percentage

and if serela played like me- well first thatd be impossible since he has no idea how i play.

secondly id lynch him out of policy just like you should be lynching me because i realize i stopped making sense the second i reread raikarias megapost

thirdly id lynch him even if he did make coherent sense because there can be only one

------

and a proper response to serelas response soon. when im not lazy.

[Disquieted]

##Vote: sb

@zwerdjib: :squint: Did you just say the p-word? I feel like you missed the point regardless.

[zwerdjib]

##Vote: sb

@zwerdjib: :squint: Did you just say the p-word? I feel like you missed the point regardless.

i did? mind restating?

[zwerdjib]

and yes i said the POLICY word

policy policy policy policy policy

[Disquieted]

The point is Serela's doing more than you right now. Which probably means you're scum if we took that attitude.

Like, throw in the barometer that you want Serela to do more. More than what? The average townie? To you, you are the average townie, and you really don't have the comprehensive view of the gamestate Serela currently has right now. So you want him to do more than you. Are you no longer the average townie? Why? Cause you're scum?

[Disquieted]

Spoiler:

checkmate nerd

[Conqueror]

So, framing this a bit. You want to disregard Rai's analysis cause you know you yourself are town. I mean, fine. But you're really replying to me in a very lazy way cause you're really pushing this whole "I disregard this cause I know I'm town" without actually, like, touching on how much merit it could have.

Like, say Raikaria was replaced by a more confident person, a... entirely dogged persistent person. This isn't a sell on why his posts are bad, it's results oriented and this "replacement Raikaria" so to speak would tunnel you to the end of time because you haven't given a good enough answer.

Like the way you're treating this is very much a brush-off and attempt to wave away the argument without actually looking into the argument. Cause like...

that was just the initial response because reading his post actually made me angry. i made another post about it which shows that even from a not-knowing-that-im-town perspective, what he's said doesnt really hold up. sure oarfish called me town. how many other people have called me town? and like i said the "suspicious" posts he talks about from me to oarfish just completely fly in the face of what happened.

I think the main part is that raikaria's case on o4rfish aims more towards that o4rfish really isn't pushing or casing anywhere. He states his reads, and then kind of... doesn't want to do anything with it. And I feel like you missed that. And I'm not sure why you're concentrating more on this Oar/Conq team that Rai keeps putting up without really thinking about Oar on his own.

it's because rai keeps bringing up the oar/conq team as the reason he's voting oar. it's even in his vote switch post

I think the chance of an O4rfish - Conq scumteam is actually good enough that:

##Unvote: Serela
##Vote: O4rfish

tl;dr: Reasons I suspect O4rfish+Conq:

O4rfish has stated a couple of times a strong townread on Conq.

O4rfish and Conq have both been heavily involved in both mislynches

Conq's behavior concerning O4rfish is inconsistent with his towards other players [Reaction to his questions being ignored]; and him asking O4rfish for his opinion on himself; when O4rfish only just gave it is really fishy.

where are you getting the idea that rai's vote on oarfish is coming from somewhere else?

I kinda don't know why you want to purge this Serela wagon either, it's really short-sighted and it's really a very open statement. It's like... also a very absolute statement and I've been kind of tossing around the concept that I don't actually know where you're at in terms of where you want to start here. What's going on here is that you're really digging into raikaria's wall but I don't see how you're relating that to scumhunting. Taking you with my own perspective of being here as a replacement, I literally have a completely blank slate on what your reads are. And you're scumreading Rai, which isn't a surprise, but it's a very reactive bent.

ftr, i'm not actually scumreading raikaria atm or i would be voting him. i've seen town!raikaria make some really boneheaded cases. which is why i'm pushing what he says and see where he's going with it if it makes any sort of sense at all.
you're right in that i don't know where to start because i dont see why people like rai's case on serela in the first place. which is why i'm digging at that. i still suspect duskfall but need to do a reread of him to see if i want to go there again. serela is a townread of mine, tbh he's probably one of my stronger townreads now that i've listed this all out. dormio and nnr are presumed town unless they're both there in lylo. rai was a townread of mine mostly based on the end of his d1 but i need to go check on his d2 to see if i was just ignoring him prematurely. sb and refa are priority rereads for me. zeep i had a townread on but i have no idea what he's doing and his votes are frankly baffling to me. i've avoided stating a read on oarfish all game and this has been a deliberate decision because i don't think he's one of those players i can read. dan and niek are just there. nuxl is a townread based solely on modspew at this point. now that i've listed this all out it's pretty bad isnt it! i should probably try to solidify some more townreads but i can't help but feel this game is spiraling into a pit of apathy and it's hard for me to get townvibes from many people. maybe i should go reread d1 because that's usually when it's easiest to get townreads.

if we're talking about blank slates, im interested in what your reads are. i don't know where you stand at the moment and you've been somewhat standing on the sidelines.

[Conqueror]

zeep your case on serela is burden of proficiency except that applies to half the game, not to mention you. do better.

more scum than mafia.

[ActionDan]

Hello

I am skimming but oh boy the lurker hate is real.

Considering the comparative activity I am aware that it's exacerbating that feeling when one puts in more effort than the other guy. But well, such is how it goes. sometimes.

you see here's some juicy, absolutely irrelevant self-meta that may just make people more mad than they are.

I generally approach games in one of two ways. 1) I'm an active participant judiciously reading the read and critically analyzing posts with the TLC they deserve. or 2) I phone it in because well that happens. I probably do #2 more than #1 and I don't actually know how comparatively I do either as town/scum (although in 451 at least there's more reward as scum to doing absolutely nothing, so my guess is #2 wins out [see that game nuxl mentioned where I literally didn't post Days 2-4]).

This is the latter kind of game but that doesn't mean I don't do basic analysis or am unable to form opinions. And I have been doing that over the course of the game when I get them. They might not have "impact" but my vote counts as much as everyone elses.

As I address Sb's post I would like to point out that its completely possible to read my posts and form a read on them (whether town/null/scum etc.) without relying entirely on meta/activity.

##Vote: ActionDan

I think their end of phase yesterday was really weird. Their D1 was actually alright but it feels like he just flipped a switch and forgot all about it? His entire progression D1 seemed to imply they were good with lynching Shadoweh and Duskfall was null, but then they went and voted for Duskfall yesterday? I don't know how much this means since Shadoweh flipped town and Duskfall is the unknown but I can't wrap my head around it. Dan, what changed during D2 to make you want to vote for Duskfall instead of Shadoweh? I know you said the read changed but like... why? It's so out of nowhere.

Yes I did flip a switch. Aptly put. (not being sarcastic that's a really good way of describing it). D1 I was definitely good with lynching Shadoweh and I had Dusk on the ever so slightly scummier side of null. Frankly Shadoweh's posts got.. well I hesitate to say "better", but she just, starting D2, sounded like town shadoweh. I could not quantify it aside from saying certain bits of her phrasing sounded like what I remembered to be her town self. Actually when I reread D1 that started to come out at around deadline panic time D1 or so as town but it was a bit less pronounced then as it was all of D2.

As for my duskfall vote, coming into the thread end of D2, there were 3 main wagons so I restricted myself to those three. I did not give much more consideration to oarfish's since I was (and am) close to convinced he's town. So the choice was only between Dusk/Shadoweh and Dusk's posting remained pretty null to me.

I am not sure where my vote is best placed right now. Wagonomics for both D1/D2 is screaming for Dusk to be scum, but that last Nietkory post was a red flag since the words/substance ratio is close to infinite.  And at this point I need to take a look at Conq's and Nuxl's posting and get a read there... I've never quite got a feel for either this game. Otherwise skimming the thread since D3, I found Smartbomb's post pretty town right off the bat, and am curious to see the eventual followup. Dormio/NNR are apparently masons so I don't actually ever have to read them, and Zwerd is a player alright.

I don't see any reason to doubt any of my other townreads so far.

Perhaps my thoughts will coalesce around something more concrete as I read a bit closer.

[Disquieted]

I just subbed in and have spent 3 hours in the thread. I have quick spec/skim reads that I feel strongly about but I'm sitting on it so I can think about things real time as they develop.

Quite frankly if this was any other, smarter person who isn't stupid enough to play mafia seriously they would basically be a blank slate anyways, so I'm not sure what you're expecting.

It's very clear where I got Rai's reasoning from, it's from Rai's oar case post. But you're right regardless.

[sb]

@smaaatbomb i think fablooo was universallly townread similarly to a maoson so i can seeee why they would be nightkilled insteadd of a mason claim personally. i ddodnt think that we should cdoubt masons yet baseed on how hard they have crrurmbed their roles.

wrt dusknabll: primarily wanted to vote them because theyw werent shadoweh and my tr on shadoweh was stronger than my read on duskfall so yes the stuff i sdumctead duskfall for mostly came as a revelation arondt the time i was voting for them and i was trying to post my "PR or scum" read on them after their VT claim wehn fabloo quichamemered right aftet they claimed. so i guess a lot of it looks retroactive but its more like i made na assumption ithought was good but wasn't in hidnsifht.

i voted for dan because thei inconsistency felt more cnsn;uce than the stuff on niek wihich is still scummy but harder to pin down. so i thought voting for dan here would be more productive because they could give an awnwer BUT MAYNE THEY WILL JUST GET INACIVITY MODKSKILLED INSTEAD which may or may not be sick for us. like dan's inconsistency in votes is weird andunedniable but nieks's stuff is more easy to handwave or ignore but i feel like dan literally cant. There si a chance tha tI chance my vote to Niek later on in the phase but I WAS KIND OF HOPING i would be able to pressure dan and niek nin the mantime but uh, sorry I have been drining mbybad.

dormio il ove you and i ithink you're probably otwn but i have like vern less of an idea ow what uru post rrestircntion is trying ot say than sual. iteried my best to read'c onsqud psots but its too crammed to gethersmy brian doesntn work. simiamrly my eyes are glazing over ans i triy to rea duskfalll posts but "i tried toa actt liek pr as vt" feels like fuokcng bullstrawberries od pepele actaually eever do that? feesl like its never anctineitonal ting to me.

id really odo not get why wagons sywang to serela dn i thinkv tonig is onmly a small part of their content. shadoweh was no t low axcitivty imo but i will look into teha abu stuff toomrrow ahwen im in a more clear headhsa[ce. howeevr i do think serela response just sounds like "im am townie and you are wrong".

this already feels messys to im gonig to post this rn and tryto trad the current page now. conq posts too many words help

[Disquieted]

So, ActionDan. Niektory's big ol L O R E post is a lot of words for basically no content, yes. Why would you scumread it? Go back to basics here, do a quick

X did this -> scum do X -> X is scum here.

[zwerdjib]

The point is Serela's doing more than you right now. Which probably means you're scum if we took that attitude.

Like, throw in the barometer that you want Serela to do more. More than what? The average townie? To you, you are the average townie, and you really don't have the comprehensive view of the gamestate Serela currently has right now. So you want him to do more than you. Are you no longer the average townie? Why? Cause you're scum?

im below average. i thought i clarified this

[Disquieted]

Oh my god how does anyone read drunkposting.