Neo Forum Mafia - Game Over

[raikaria]

Also haven't finished with my other prime suspects yet. So probably not the best idea to sheep me yet.

[Serela]

Although it's really not earning you much townie points when you say 'I screamed and really really wanted the townie lynched.'

Dusk specifically said he liked voting me because I looked 'noncommittal' about my votes is the point here ok :C

[raikaria]

Dusk specifically said he liked voting me because I looked 'noncommittal' about my votes is the point here ok :C

My point is that you were very committal about lynching the easy lurker lynch Shadoweh. It's why I stressed you were on it all of D2.

[zwerdjib]

Yes giving a random person a clear isn't towny sorry

Jesus Christ this game

and now the fact that youre pushing so hard for it as evidence to tr you makes you worse

[raikaria]

So, six players are dead and we haven't found any scum yet. This indicates scum are good players, right?

No; it indicates town are bad. I don't like this sort of attitude really. It's like it's guideing town to suspect 'good' players. This feels like sowing distrust.

O4rfish's D2 and D3 so far seem to contain a lot of speculation about how close Scum are to winning, how many scum there are, ect. Not sure if this is WiFoM; feigning ignorance to scum's wincon to seem more townie?

My lynch priorities are:
sb
Dormio
Shadoweh

I'm not good enough to write a convincing case right now against sb though. So I'll go with this

##Unvote
##Vote: Dormio

It's worth noting O4rfish dosen't case *any* of these. Or explain why one is ranked above another. I'm not good enough to write convinceing cases on people either, doesn't stop me trying.

I wasn't saying "you should stop voting me"
I was saying "you should reconsider how solid your case is"

I called this post out before.

There's quite a bit of Dormio v O4rfish ED2. But there is notably this snippett:

Your case on me d2: restate your previous case, and then
I disagree with the first part, obviously.  For the second part, my read of Conq at that time was that he was less likely to be scum than anyone else, unless Shadoweh was letting him bus her. 

O4rfish + Conq might be a thing, or at least this raises the chances. Notably O4rfish dosen't much otherwise talk about Townreads. [Not inherently a bad thing]

My wagon:
sb - probably scum
Dormio - more likely scum than not scum
NNR - more likely town than not town

Dormio is first deciding who to go after, then casing them.  This in itself isn't scummy, but it looks bad if that's the only way you pick up suspects.  I don't expect him to have a higher level of activity, but I do expect him to read the game rather than just isos.
Due to his statements, if Dormio is town then NNR is almost certainly town, and if Dormio is scum then NNR might still be town.

Again, O4rfish calls out SB as a top scumread, but doesn't case sb or anything, and instead focuses on Dormio later. This is weird. I'd really like to hear more about sb from O4rfish. If you think he's your top scumread, can you actually case him? Vote him? Do anything except passively call him your top scumread?

Conq is a pretty good player.  I think his attack on Serela makes sense, but it's within his ability to fake.  Reading his posts also makes me suspect Shadoweh, for not responding properly to his gambit. 
If Shadoweh is town, then her townread on Conq is probably valid.  But if Conq is town and continues to have a scumread on Shadoweh, then that's probably valid.

Praiseing and semi-sheeping Conq here, with just enough doubt to perhaps make a dissassociaton. Also; the 2nd part is something I'd like O4rfish to talk about. Shadoweh was town. What does this do in relation to your opinion on Conq? The only thing you've said related to him D3 is asking someone else if their opinions on him have changed.

Worth noting there's no smoke without fire in the accusations of O4rfish being quite defensive as well.

---

Can totally see O4rfish + Conq as a possibility. But I've also suggested Serela+Conq. Next up; reading Conq and looking at his interactions. Currently unsure if O4rfish or Serela are worse.

[Niektory]

Useless fact: Assuming 4 scum, the probability of getting at least one of them after 2 days by lynching completely at random is 44%. After 3 days, it's 61%.

This game looks like it is going according to plan for scum. I have some ideas as to how to shake things up, but I'm not sure how many players would agree to do that.

Conventional methods have failed. It is in these trying times that we need to use our trump card: Touhou Canon Analysis.

Three out of four deaths so far have been PC-98 characters. From the two who are left, Shinki narrowly escaped death twice, and Reimu changed players, which I read as her transitioning to her Windows version. From this it is clear that it is time we put the PC-98 era behind us.

Ran is masons with her shikigami, Chen. That is not surprising in the slightest. And Ran is the shikigami of Yukari, who is also town. Yuyuko/Yukari/Ran/Chen would be an obvious PCB endgame scum team, but alas this is not the case. We need to dig deeper.

Rumia manipulates darkness while Sunny manipulates light. One of them must be scum for sure. And if both are, we're doomed.

Rinnosuke is great at reading items, not so much at reading people. Don't sheep him.

Youki is a footnote character what is he even doing here.

Koishi is... uh, who's Koishi again?

(sorry, it was getting depressing around here; I'll get serious later)

I'm going to play differently for the rest of the game.

I hope the speeches will continue though!

@Niektory: You uh, weren't really questioned about your mad voteswitch onto Abu, so I'll throw it out now. Like, just walk me through what you were thinking around there.

It seemed like it would be either Abu or Raikaria at that point and from a cursory glance (I was behind on Day 1 reading) Abu seemed more suspicious. I will not give you a well thought out reason because there wasn't one.

[raikaria]

Also god it's 11pm and I need to get up at like 6:30 to catch a train that's like 1h 15 long trip where I double back because Sunday trains are suffering.

I might not get to finish my Conq read.

[zwerdjib]

koishi is satoris sister

[raikaria]

OK so as I'm reading Conq I'm finding him a lot harder to case than Serela and O4rfish.

I've also historically been really really bad at getting reads on Conq.

I find it interesting his D2 Duskfall vote seems to be mostly 'calling his bluff'. Interestingly this is shortly after chastising Shadoweh for a Duskfall vote.

serela still basically only has one case which is definitely in scum!serela range but on balance i think the way shadoweh is approaching the game is scummier. maybe i'll trust my initial gut read on serela.

oh right, oarfish i think i saw you mention something about me/serela/shadoweh's reads on each other but it's not like we have rock solid accuracy on each other. what's your current read on me/serela/shadoweh?

I do find it interesting Conq asks O4rfish for opinions specifically on himself; Serela and Shadoweh. Shadoweh is the main wagon at this point so fair enough. Serela is the counterwagon that isn't O4rfish himself; so also fair. But why is Conq asking about O4rfish's read on himself? This isn't a thing Conq does much. It just gives me a weird feeling.

What's weirder is O4rfish only just stated his opinion on Conq in #1212 and Conq asks O4rfish for it in #1233. O4rfish dosen't answer this question, and Conq has had a pattern this game of pushing people to answer his questions and getting annoyed when they are not answered. He's done so with me.

And yet; this time; he asks O4rfish a question he just answered [Suggesting he's not actually reading O4rfish?] and dosen't keep pushing O4rfish to answer it.

I find this whole interaction... strange and fishy.

[raikaria]

I think the chance of an O4rfish - Conq scumteam is actually good enough that:

##Unvote: Serela
##Vote: O4rfish

[raikaria]

tl;dr: Reasons I suspect O4rfish+Conq:

O4rfish has stated a couple of times a strong townread on Conq.

O4rfish and Conq have both been heavily involved in both mislynches

Conq's behavior concerning O4rfish is inconsistent with his towards other players [Reaction to his questions being ignored]; and him asking O4rfish for his opinion on himself; when O4rfish only just gave it is really fishy.

[zwerdjib]

I think the chance of an O4rfish - Conq scumteam is actually good enough that:

##Unvote: Serela
##Vote: O4rfish

okay, now my question is how does this change your read on serela? or where does he fit into here?

[raikaria]

Now excuse me going to bed. Hopefully I've at least done enough to stoke discussion and some attempts at scumhunting for me to read after work tomorrow.

okay, now my question is how does this change your read on serela? or where does he fit into here?

Serela read is still bad. However, I think we get more information from an O4rfish flip than a Serela flip.

[raikaria]

Now excuse me going to bed. Hopefully I've at least done enough to stoke discussion and some attempts at scumhunting for me to read after work tomorrow.

Serela read is still bad. However, I think we get more information from an O4rfish flip than a Serela flip.

Specifically if O4rfish flips red I'd say there's a very, very high chance Conq is red too. Whereas if Serela flips red there's not an immediate partner I can tell right now.

[zwerdjib]

i mean, ill need you to actually explain the link, so ill hold off for now

but i will plop a vote righttttt

##vote serela

here

and no duskfall im not forgetting you exist. dont ever think that

[raikaria]

i mean, ill need you to actually explain the link, so ill hold off for now

Did you not see me point out O4rfish slipping in Conq townreads, and Conq's strange behavior towards O4rfish [Signs he's not reading O4rfish's posts; asking O4rfish to post his opinion on him, and then not chasing it up when O4rfish doesn't respond, when he chases up other people]

Strange interactions out of the norm for Conq. They just make me suspicious. By all means, you don't need to agree with what's making me suspicious. But I did explain it.

[zwerdjib]

Did you not see me point out O4rfish slipping in Conq townreads, and Conq's strange behavior towards O4rfish [Signs he's not reading O4rfish's posts; asking O4rfish to post his opinion on him, and then not chasing it up when O4rfish doesn't respond, when he chases up other people]

Strange interactions out of the norm for Conq. They just make me suspicious. By all means, you don't need to agree with what's making me suspicious. But I did explain it.

i... i meant the link between them and serela

[raikaria]

i... i meant the link between them and serela

There's not one, I think Serela is scummy for his own reasons.

[Serela]

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Zwerd I'm looking over your posts and you've literally never mentioned anything about my alignment before, do you have like
anything to add to your vote here???

While I'm here I realize that the tumultuous state of the game post-shadoweh-townflip means I should really probably reclarify where my readslist is currently at

Town

1.O4rfish (Rumia)
3. Dormio (Ran Yakumo)
6. Serela (Koishi Komeiji)
7. sb (Sanae Kochiya)
9. Raikaria (Sunny Milk)
12. Refa Disquieted (Reimu Hakurei)
16. Nuxl (Youki Konpaku)
14. NekoNekoRex (Chen)

I think it would be pretty difficult for me to reconsider the ones of these that aren't already actually literally softconfirmed town

That leaves these guys

11. zwerdjib (Yuyuko Saigyouji)
13. ActionDan (Rinnosuke Morichika)
15. Duskfall98 (Shinki)
17. Niektory (Yukari Yakumo)
5. Conqueror (Tenshi Hinanawi)

Dan has existed too little to possibly read and at this point of the game needs to die. I... think... that I'm feeling OK about dusk still?? I need to reread Conq, as mentioned earlier Niektory has done things that'd make me p.hesitant to lynch them, and honestly I don't remember what my reason for townreading zwerd was before and maybe I should go back and read my own posts to find out again, I just kind of wasn't thinking about them much all game after clearing them so they've not really been on my mind until they voted me with no prior mentioning and I thought "wait so what's my opinion on this person again???"

ftr if I'm not being totally schooled by my town reads then only one of these final people should actually NOT be scum so it's more like "which do I feel the worst about and then as the game continues I'll see how the less-worst ones develop"

[Serela]

Zwerd I'm looking over your posts and you've literally never mentioned anything about my alignment before, do you have like
anything to add to your vote here???

clarification:I didn't read back into actual day one but I don't think that should be terribly relevant for the state at hand, esp. since you had a reads list d2

[zwerdjib]

clarification:I didn't read back into actual day one but I don't think that should be terribly relevant for the state at hand, esp. since you had a reads list d2

raikarias case against you is far more solid than his oar-conq one imho. i feel like this went without saying

[Disquieted]

raikarias case against you is far more solid than his oar-conq one imho. i feel like this went without saying

Strange, I disagree completely.

[Serela]

yeah like

it's good to at least STATE what you agree with when you decide to just sheep someone else on a person you have no stated opinion on :T so you can be... y'know... held to something? anything?

[Conqueror]

Conq the power role makes me look bad after I claim, I agree. Was I trying to look like rp? Yes, for two reasons:

It makes me less likely to get lynched, this is pro town not just pro survivability. I know shaodweh is not town pr because she has claimed by, and I believe she is mafia. Of course it is pro town to have her lynched over me, who I know is town. My scum read getting lynched is always better than me getting lynched, that's a fact.

Claiming VT does not help town make its decision in a way that is pro it's wincon. This is because I am not pr. Deciding between two vts doesn't help town, because you are both vt it doesn't change the decision. So me claoming does not effect the lynch. I agree that if I was lr or shadoweh was it would make sense to claim as you weigh up who gets to survive. My claiming here gave town no real advantage, and I knew this. You only seem to believe it does help town because you didn't already know my role.

An unknown claim can potentially effect a lynch, because it has the potential to be pr. But from my perspective there is no such potential, so claiming does not help the decision at all, and I am aware it won't help the decision. So my claiming is never pro town, I know this. You only believe it could potentially be pro town because you don't know the claim. Sorry if I'm repeating btw.

But because of this not being pro town, it only really helps scum, who are pr hunting, by telling them I am not what they are looking for.

Going to digest this for a bit because I think I just fundamentally disagree and am having trouble wrapping my head around your state pov.

Strange, I disagree completely.

What do you like about it? I'm about to respond to it but I'm curious because it's complete gash.

[Disquieted]

I just think on balance staring at a sticky vote without really paying attention to any of the words surrounding it is much worse than identifying an inconsistent interaction, lack of really pushing anywhere, etc.

I'm not sure why you think otherwise unless you're assuming raikaria is really hardpushing the you-Oar world.

[Conqueror]

I just think on balance staring at a sticky vote without really paying attention to any of the words surrounding it is much worse than identifying an inconsistent interaction, lack of really pushing anywhere, etc.

I'm not sure why you think otherwise unless you're assuming raikaria is really hardpushing the you-Oar world.

Cutting myself but I think all his posts today suck.

[Disquieted]

I never said the oarfish case was solid. Lemme check my logic that I stated... yep, yep, correct.

But trying to put things Rai has said on a sliding scale instead of rolling it all into "posts bad", his oarfish read is better than his Serela read. No?

[zwerdjib]

yeah like

it's good to at least STATE what you agree with when you decide to just sheep someone else on a person you have no stated opinion on :T so you can be... y'know... held to something? anything?

bah alright ill do some work for you nothing better to do other than answer questions anyway

Yes; but there's people who have voted almost nothing but town. Throughout the entire day.

Anyway; I went back to look at Serela and one thing that immediately concerned me was his votes.

Serela's first 'real' vote. Goes onto me with absolutely no reason. I'm softconfirmed townie.

Serela proceeds to sit on this for quite a while. From March 6th to March 8th.

Serela's Abu vote [which; by the way; was one of the earlier ones] boils down to 'He's not doing much'; which at this point it could be applied to a lot of people. Including me. Who he unvoted from, and even acknowledges should be re-evaluated.

Except Abu really was Town Vig. In hindslight this plea for me to basically go back to Abu looks somewhat bad. Because of course, scum would want us to kill a Vig over VT.

This is the justification for a vote that Serela literally sits on ALL DAY.

Notably Serela's only gone after low-activity lynches. And now he's just jumped on ActionDan too.

D3 starts and Serela seems to be pushing immediately for an easy lurkerlynch.

Not really scumhunting. Just easy wagons on low-activity townies. No real cases either. I don't like this.

##Unvote
##Vote: Serela

not including original quoted posts bc lazy

first point is pretty weak admittedly

then on the discussion of serelas abu vote, thats the part that i really agree with raikaria on. in fact, there was someone else who followed this exact logic of "not doing much, therefore lynch" while ignoring half the pl. let me see if i can remember who, and ill get back to you on that

and when he gives the overview of serela activity, it kinda makes sense. in fact, serelas posts today have mostly just been defenses and justification for popping out a lurker.

[Disquieted]

So like, keep that in perspective, then. What exactly should town!Serela be doing here?

[zwerdjib]

So like, keep that in perspective, then. What exactly should town!Serela be doing here?

good question. never played with him lmao