Neo DEFCON Mafia (DEFCON 1, Phase 1)

[NekoNekoRex]

Do not post in the thread if you are not a living player.

[Serela]

Also, Rai:It's not a prisoner's dilemma because if bard's a failsafe and I NK him, he just fires at nuke at you, which you can't guard against, and that means he wins anyway

so it's actual kingmaker where forcing a no lynch just means bard wins

[NekoNekoRex]

NucleusWaffles, French Surrenderer was wiped off the face of Earth by a Thor Shot.

[Serela]

zzzzz sleep is soon

of note:failsafe does not activate if the player dies via lynching

(this was something i think i had wrong in my earlier musings but actually it's totally safe to lynch them)

[Bardiche]

Guess it's only fair to come clean.

Yeah, I'm the Serial Killer. I hit Beru because I think modkills are lame and negative to game health, so I decided to do Neko a solid and remove the slot via actual game means. LOL at it actually hitting Scum though.

I shot Meow because at the time, I figured I'd lie about being a silo and have two people nuke me to get past the defences, so I could nuke two people in response, but... well, not much point to that fib if there's only one nuke to go around, eh?

##Vote: Serela

Now can I finally have the cake I longed for all game and see Serela lynched? I've been telling you he's Scum almost all game.

Like, literally. People. Can we finally give the old Bardiche Scumdar some credit?

[Bardiche]

To be fair, Serela also caught on quite early that I didn't really give a crap about anything that was going on. I pretty much assumed I'd die early anyway to a stray nuke or a silly lynch, and then whether I'd win or not was completely out of my hands.

Who knew people'd be so nuke happy they got rid of most everyone for me?

[raikaria]

enjoy the kingmaking raik lol

As I said; this is Prisoner's Island.

Here's the deal guys.

Firstly; we No-Lynch.

Why do we No-Lynch?

1: If I lynch Bardiche; I lose to Serela's Nuke. Also I can't win in any way if we lynch. So I'm not helping you guys lynch the other guy.

2: If you guys try and lynch me, whoever is the SK wins because you guys kill each other tonight, no-one lives which means North Korea wins. So the Mafia player should not lynch me.

It is only in the interest of the Serial Killer to lynch anyone now.

Then onto Phase 2.

I can self-protect from 1 shot. This means that I need both of you to shoot me to die.

However, if this happens, we're back to the SK winning via MAD. So it is in the Russian player's interest to not shoot me. In addittion, one could shoot me and the other shoot the rival scum. This means shooting me is a bad choice.

And obviously if you guys shoot each other you lose too. 

WELCOME TO PRISONER'S ISLAND FOLKS

##VOTE: NO-LYNCH

[raikaria]

Oh and by the way I'm fairly sure the only way out of this situation is for Serela to either intentionally throw the game [Nukeing me = SK 1v1 = Both die = SK wins] which is against the 'Play to Win' rule, or for him to join me in No-Lynch, shoot Bard, and hope Bard dosen't shoot him.

[raikaria]

AKA: Serela if you're following the rules and playing to win your literal only move is No-Lynch.

[raikaria]

Assumeing hard stalemate = scum win:

My path to victory: No Lynch -> Cross-shot

Serela's path to victory: No Lynch -> Shoot Bard + Bard Shoots me -> Nuke Me

Bard's path to victory: Anything that involves a lynch [Stalemate or 1v1]; or No-Lynch -> Serela shoots me Bard shoots Serela

[raikaria]

Note 2 player's victory conditions involve No-Lynch, so No-Lych should happen should everyone be playing to win, and in a No-Lynch situation, the scum wincons both involve shooting the other scum.

Oh yeah I guess I missed Bard wins if both Serela and him shoot me, but that isn't happening if Serela is playing to win and following the rules.

Barring people not playing to win and thus breaking the rules; I win.

[raikaria]

Serela's path to victory: No Lynch or Bard Lynch -> Shoot Bard + Bard Shoots me -> Nuke Me

Bard's path to victory: Raikaria/Serela lynch  [Stalemate or 1v1]; or No-Lynch -> Serela shoots me Bard shoots Serela

I forgot if we lynch Bard Serela wins via nuke.

[raikaria]

Also, Rai:It's not a prisoner's dilemma because if bard's a failsafe and I NK him, he just fires at nuke at you, which you can't guard against, and that means he wins anyway

so it's actual kingmaker where forcing a no lynch just means bard wins

Bard still shoots you Serela.

[raikaria]

Also, Rai:It's not a prisoner's dilemma because if bard's a failsafe and I NK him, he just fires at nuke at you, which you can't guard against, and that means he wins anyway

so it's actual kingmaker where forcing a no lynch just means bard wins

Also Failsafe nuke takes 48 hours to hit and I only need live for 24 to win.

So if you cross-shoot Bard still can't kill me.

[Bardiche]

Just want to note: if I die during the night, the nuke launched at Raikaria will land before the 48hr deadline and result in SK win.

I don't need to be alive to win, you know.

Q: If Town is lynched at 3p and their are nukes in the air, do the scum win automatically or do the nukes land post-lynch and then win conditions are resolved?
A: At least one member of a faction must survive for at least 48 hours after all enemy nations have been eliminated in order for that faction to win, which leaves ample time for any stray nukes in the air to land (even if their launchers are dead).

at least 48 hours

[raikaria]

I'm sure it said 24 hours.

[Bardiche]

I guess the most outlandish thing you can do is help Serela win.

No Lynch -> Protecc Serela so I can't kill him -> Get nuked when Serela kills me -> Game ends with only Serela alive because I launch my nuke at you, since Serela can defensive silo to protect against my nuke

Honestly, I don't think you've thought this through.

[Bardiche]

Last edit on those rules is 31 May, so you're just completely SOL here, mate. Bullying No Lynch-tan just means you're trying to help Serela win the game, in which case you might as well lynch me now and give him the win without convoluted risks.

[raikaria]

Honestly, I don't think you've thought this through.

Nuke wasn't Town-aligned anyway.

Serela nukes me instead we have a similar situation.

Serela nukeing you was the only way for a Town win but you claimed failsafe so he couldn't do that.

Town had basically lost regardless. Only way to win was lynching you and Serela not nuking either me or Zoomy. Which he obviously would not do. Or a Turbolynch on Serela before he could nuke. Which I gunned for and didn't happen.

[Bardiche]

Every No Lynch Night Scenario Where Raikaria Protects Himself:

Scenario 1:
Raikaria protects Raikaria
Serela shoots Raikaria
Bardiche shoots Raikaria

Result: Bardiche & Serela survive, Bardiche wins because everyone will die.

Scenario 2:
Raikaria protects Raikaria
Serela shoots Raikaria
Bardiche shoots Serela

Result: Raikaria & Bardiche survive, Bardiche wins the game through deadlock mechanics

Scenario 3:
Raikaria protects Raikaria
Serela shoots Bardiche
Bardiche shoots Raikaria

Result: Serela & Raikaria survive, Bardiche nukes Raikaria, Serela wins the game.
Alt: Bardiche nukes Serela, but Serela's silo is defensive, Serela wins the game through deadlock mechanics.

Scenario 4:
Raikaria protects Raikaria
Serela shoots Bardiche
Bardiche shoots Serela

Result: Raikaria survives, but Bardiche launches a nuke which kills Raikaria, resulting in Bardiche win


Therefore: defending yourself is a waste of time.

[raikaria]

I mean, we can still bulli no-lynch-tan. You just shoot Serela.

Even if Serela shoots me and you kill Serela, you win because NNR has made it pretty clear town loses in a stalemate.

Game was lost for town as soon as you had claimed Failsafe and Serela showed up to stop a Turbo. Zoomy being alive or not actually means nothing.

And Lynching Bard wouldn't have saved Town, because Serela would still nuke me or Zoomy and just win next day.

[Bardiche]

Now if you change any of these to Raikaria protecting someone else, they're all variations of "Bardiche wins the game" with a handful of "Serela wins through deadlock mechanics", in universes where both Raikaria and Serela survive.

There's no universe in which Raikaria wins the game.

Therefore.

If you're intent on letting Serela win, might as well vote me now instead, otherwise vote Serela and give me the win.

[raikaria]

Now if you change any of these to Raikaria protecting someone else, they're all variations of "Bardiche wins the game" with a handful of "Serela wins through deadlock mechanics", in universes where both Raikaria and Serela survive.

There's no universe in which Raikaria wins the game.

Therefore.

If you're intent on letting Serela win, might as well vote me now instead, otherwise vote Serela and give me the win.

Or if you want to win you can just hammer no-lynch?

[raikaria]

I mean let's make this the mafia where everyone is dead at the end Bard.

You and Serela cross-shoot. You nuke me. Everyone dies. North Korea wins.

[raikaria]

Also this dosen't change the fact that with me on No-Lynch Serela's only wincon is to also No-Lynch and HOPE Bard shoots me instead of him.

[Bardiche]

Ugh, why extend the game needlessly.

[raikaria]

Memes, and letting me go out on my own terms?

Also we'd be extending by maybe a few hours, provided NNR is around. Hammer No-Lynch, turbo night actions, NNR posts night results. You nuke. I just die a painful radioactive death.

[raikaria]

Also I mean, I'm not moving off NL. Serela has to NL to have even a slight chance with me on NL.

You can end the day phase now or wait for Serela to do it.

[Bardiche]

##Vote: Raikaria

Or Serela votes with me here and then we all die.

[raikaria]

I mean that works too but then you never get to use your ability.