Neo DEFCON Mafia (DEFCON 1, Phase 1)

[Daiya]

because i can't see nk and especially the last scum giving up the utility of a silo, at this point. it can keep them alive in a pinch or progress their wincon if necessary. and with the two members of the scumteam having silos, i think the last member should have one as well. ergo, the fighter and battleship are most likely town. i suppose there's arguments to be made that one of them could be nk, but i again can't see them picking either of those roles which hardly aid their wincon (one even acts directly against it) over the one that does

[Serela]

Fighter is a dubious NK pick I agree but fighter seems like a pretty normal scum pick. The first time defcon ran, the scumteam actually chose zero nukes.

[raikaria]

Also I can see scum wanting to know people's roles to, you know... find the power roles.

In fact, the fact Fighter hasn't claimed makes me fairly sure we have a Scum Fighter.

Also hi I'm back.

[raikaria]

Oh yeah I'm tossing up the pros and cons to me claiming; and the liklihood I die tonight either way.

I mean I'd rather survive personally but I think there's like a 90%+ chance I die to either the SK or Scum kill tonight anyway. Unless both think the other will kill me and neither hit me. There's also the fact the Doc can only block one shot so if both SK and Mafia hit me I'd die even through doc.

[Serela]

if mafia and sk both are still alive, the mafia probably wants to hit the SK tonight more than anything else b/c they're gonna be pretty liable to just get endgamed even if they 'survive' the conventional part of the game

of course the sk could be nearly anyone so that might not change the situation a whole lot idk

sk would probably want to hit rai presuming it's not them, but, the doc exists, so, it wouldn't be a safe call either? the night is gonna be weird.

[Serela]

People that don't really exist:
Daiya - For what it's worth, I think the few actual content posts they've made are actually okay, so I'm not really looking too hard here unless something egregious happens to jump out at me.
beru - Consists of pretty much entirely non-content posts. Is also replacing out so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Bardiche - Similar to Daiya, the few posts he has don't really bother me so it's a slot that is there.
Yaersulf - Doesn't exist outside of just poking and prodding at a few people and then disappearing. If we were consolidating on a lurker lynch, this is the one that I'd go for.
Meow56 - Doesn't exist.

People that do exist:
Dormio - This is me.
zwerdjib - This is scum.
NuclearWaffles - This is probably the SK.
Serela - Flailing around in typical Serela fashion, his D1 posts looked pretty bad. D2 looks like he's actually putting effort into the game but this is a slot that I'm keeping my eye on.
raikaria - I was going to say that this one seems sane, but Zoomy Tsugumi brings up a good point about this slot in their latest post. This is another slot to keep an eye on, I suppose.
Zoomy Tsugumi - This one seems sane.

dorm's general reads post, but i'm not sure how helpful it is because zwerd is the only scumread here and everyone else is 'keeping eye on' or 'seems ok i guess' aka everyone's been lumped into very middle-of-the-road categories that can easily swing either way

[NekoNekoRex]

☢ In-Game Event ☢
DEFCON 1

[NORAD SYSTEM] ALERT. ALERT. NUCLEAR LAUNCH DETECTED.
[NORAD SYSTEM] Attempting to locate launch site...
[NORAD SYSTEM] Missile tracked to facility QZ-192 , currently commanded by Serela.
[NORAD SYSTEM] Analyzing flight trajectory . . .
[NORAD SYSTEM] Missile is currently targeting coordinates registered to Dormio.
[NORAD SYSTEM] Estimating time until impact...
[NORAD SYSTEM] Warhead will detonate on Saturday, June 15, 11:16:17 EDT

[ Expired ]

[NekoNekoRex]

DEFCON 1, Lynch Phase
Vote Count Romeo

Dormio (1) - Zoomy Tsugumi, NucleusWaffles, Serela
Zoomy Tsugumi (1) - Dormio, Dormio
Bardiche (0) - Serela
Serela (0) -
Raikaria (0) -
meow56 (0) -
Daiya (0) -
Yaersulf (X) - Zoomy Tsugumi, Dormio

Not Voting (5) -  meow56, Daiya, Raikaria, Bardiche, Serela

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to Lynch.

Timers:
End of Phase - [ Expired ]
☢NucleusWaffles☢ - [ Expired ]
☢Dormio☢ - [ Expired ]

[Serela]

Ok I'm out of my bed now because I had to go to work. I still feel terrible but w/e let's play mafia instead of working ~

Zoomy I think can be soft cleared between being easily the townest looking player and Dormio going hardcore on them D3. At least, I can't fathom voting for them over other options. And Rai literally got copped as not scum.

So that leaves me, Meow, Bard, and Daiya. I have some rereading to do, better get off my phone and onto the work computer zzzz

[raikaria]

Ok I'm out of my bed now because I had to go to work. I still feel terrible but w/e let's play mafia instead of working ~

Zoomy I think can be soft cleared between being easily the townest looking player and Dormio going hardcore on them D3. At least, I can't fathom voting for them over other options. And Rai literally got copped as not scum.

So that leaves me, Meow, Bard, and Daiya. I have some rereading to do, better get off my phone and onto the work computer zzzz

Honestly; out of these three; I'd actually lean towards Bard being the last scum [He seems to have almost thrown in the towel with his stance; while Daiya seems to be trying to help and Meow is about as useful as ever]

It is worth noting nothing clears anyone of being Korea however.

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

##I do not wish to die a painful radioactive death

[Serela]

Work:actually really busy whoops

OK

Meow only has ~17 posts in the game and most of them are pretty short so let's start there. TBH this is the only meaningful one to go off

Okay, I ISO'd everyone and pulled together a read list. Sorry for wall.

Serela - Seems very sure that there are 4+ town vigs, which doesn't sound right. You'd think town would end up favoring power roles to nukes... Also giving me a lot of newbie cred, though once again under the assumption that we can just nuke me in the end. Though also seems to think nuking me would be a coin toss. Made a case against Bardiche, also willing to lynch zwerdjib. Overall leaning scum.
Daiya - Prodded people d1, gave lots of reads as well. Then disappeared d2. Leaning town, but would like them to get back to the game at some point. Slowly moving down as they've yet to appear.
Beru - Replacing out.
zwerdjib - Seemed to give up on D1, but is back with a vengeance or somesuch. Advocated DEFCON3 massclaim and got lots of flak for it. Getting tunneled on by Dormio. Still think they're town; if they've happened to find the drive to go the distance all the better.
NucleusWaffles - Opens by posting a "breaking" strategy that doesn't really work out, gets lots of flak for it. Thinks Yaersulf is scummy for voteparking, then townie, then scummy again. Has kinda disappeared toDay. I'll place them slightly north of neutral.
Dormio - Very much tunneling on zwerdjib. Gave opinions of others but very limited. Would like to hear more (as raikaria has alluded to). Scum lean.
Yaersulf - I stand by what I said earlier, I feel like Yaersulf should be more confident. The Big Post™ is a little weird, given their posting habits. See also their last game, where they basically gave up re: getting lynched.
Bardiche - Going to wait until they post more before making a decision. Though this wait has been taking a while...
raikaria - Doesn't have a lot of time, but makes the most of what they do have. I like that they've read me enough to actually give a read instead of just saying "lurker". Town.
Zoomy Tsugumi - Is trying to figure this game out, poking people and, like, actually playing the game. Is trying to reinvigorate the town. Town.

Zoomy Tsugumi		Town
zwerdjib
raikaria
Daiya		Town Lean
NucleusWaffles		Neutral
Beru
Bardiche
Dormio		Scum Lean
Serela
Yaersulf		Scum

zwerdjib: You missed Daiya in your read list, so what do you think of them?
Yaersulf: If we mislynched zwerdjib, worst-case leaves us at 4:3:1 tomorrow. At this point I highly doubt any town would lay down and die in the face of a mislynch.
Hopefully Daiya, Bardiche, NucleusWaffles, maybe even Dormio get in here and post something.

At face value this is actually a pretty good post, but there's also extremely little of anything else for them this game. They've not really had a single comment today other than quoting raikaria's fighter thing, either. Since they're new that's not -super- surprising and I'd err on caution by saying the good post suggests not mafia but if we don't find scum elsewhere later they definitely need to be revisited

posting this now in case work livens up again while i try to do other rereads

[NekoNekoRex]

Dormio, Russian Missile Silo has taken the easy way out.

[Serela]

head:murdering me harder

sobs

i really like daiya's d1 which i've said before

but then he disappeared for nearly 4 days

he didn't -just- jump on zwerd when he came back at least; he made a bit of novel content against raikaria at least, but he didn't talk about anyone else until... actually never until saying he thinks i'm scummy at the moment for... being a missile silo because 2 scums were silos so the third must be as well?

from what i understand people are just clearing daiya for admitting on d3 that he's a sub. are the sheer brownie points he's gained from doing so not enough motivation in of itself? nukes are flying, he just missed nearly the entirety of d2 which doesn't make him look good, the player pool is about to significantly shrink and pressure's gonna be on, etc. i don't think it's unreasonable that he claimed as a gambit

[raikaria]

You know what would be useful; if Bard/Meow actually posted some things considering they're two of the three prime suspects at this point.

Especially given neither player has actually done too much making it quite difficult to dig into them. I mean it could be that they're SK and the remaining scum so that's why they're not doing much but I'd like to go a bit further than 'lynch lurkers'.

[Bardiche]

[He seems to have almost thrown in the towel with his stance;

More that I enjoy the "scumhunt" portion of the game, and less the "Let's work out how we can win the game by playing the setup instead" portion. It somehow feels... lame? Like, it takes away "how well does everyone play" and replaces it with "Let's use all our role powers to solve the setup", which is somehow not exactly what I enjoy best about Mafiers.



Cut by Raik. Well.

[Bardiche]

Anyway, I think I've laid out enough that I'm suspicious of Serela. That hasn't changed.

Meow... is the easiest ISO ever. And also pretty interesting. If you read this post, he's saying I'm sus because I "lurked more than he thought"...

That's for DEFCON 2. Prior to that, Meow has not made a single case, and hardly even put down a vote. In fact, this is his only vote. And this is his second vote.

In the entire game.

THE ENTIRE GAME. The second vote is also interesting because he soft defends Dormio. We get two reads from him: the post with the ladder from Towniest to Scummiest and then there's this one, where he calmly asserts Serela is "leaning scum" at a time when I was pushing Serela hard still.

He townreads Zwerdjib, but suspiciously is not around at all for anything regarding the zwerdjib debacle. In fact, his reads list is mostly observations, and then saying "I lean this way"... without actually explaining too much. It's pretty much reporting.

Man. Serela gave me flak for not caring much but this is taking the cake.

[Bardiche]

[Bardiche]

Damn, can't post memes, huh. That sucks, but it is what it is. Had a funny caption saying, "Meow is lurkscum, change my mind."

I guess there's a chance Zoomy is the last scum, but I don't think so. Dormio went completely insane and salty over being copped, which suggests to me he was already frustrated due to his buddies lurking so hard. Consider also at a 15% odds of getting their QT exposed, we hardly even got any messages.

I'll read Zoomy later but I'm pretty convinced at this point Meow's the last lurkscum, considering the extremely low volume of posts and content therein, but in what he posts, he does find scum in people who "don't post enough"... and constantly hopes for Dormio to clear himself.

[Zoomy Tsugumi]

I don't really have much else to say currently tbh.
Bard is probably my top pick for SK.
Serela is who my gut saying is scum, but I guess logically it could also be meow.
I feel ok about Daiya either way.
These are pretty meh opinions but the longer this day goes on the less confident I'm feeling in any read oof.

[Bardiche]

So, Zoomy. Interestingly, the one who feels least about Raikaria.

(Off-hand note on Serela giving ConfirmedScumDormio a town pass here)

(Irony here on Beru saying "if anyone's replacing out, it's scum")

I note some defence of Dormio, and what could possibly be seen as a bus on Beru there. Interestingly, towards the end of Day 3, there's a chance to hop on Beru's wagon (see votecount) but rather than follow-up on the Beru wagon he was pushing himself earlier, but which he abandoned when it was looking like it might work.

Scum getting cold feet? Interesting combined with his jump on Abu because "end of day vote spread is disheartening" despite actually hopping off a wagon.

I also rather dislike the exchange with Dormio considering he again iterated Dormio "probably town" but might read Dormio as scum if Zwerd flips Town. Rather, "I can see", not "I will see".

He remains convinced later on Dormio's "the last scum" and happily votes Yaersulf. What this means is that, if Yaer flipped Town, then "Dormio is last scum" would stop holding water and he'd have a shot at just leaving Dormio alone again.

Argh.

Basically I want to lynch two scum players but I can only go with one. My heart wants to go Zoomy because I don't have many good feelings about him but my mind says Meow is the more likely candidate given Dormio's freak out over being copped and throwing in the towel.

[Bardiche]

Basically Zoomy's spent the game going after Beru, then leaving that wagon when a Beru lynch looks possible.

Spends all game harping on confirmed-notScum Raikaria,
continuously gave Dormio free passes and maintains camaraderie with confirmed-Scum,
and kept heavily pushing for Yaersulf to die, despite him claiming Cop which as I said earlier, it's just bad form to be nuking your cop.

Yeah.

I feel Zoomy>Meow>Serela at the moment for my scum picks but I need to re-read Serela again and then eat some delicious waffles because I feel za pressure.

We have 7 players, if we don't lynch anyone then tomorrow we have 5-6 players (depending on who scum/SK hit) with a chance of 7 because there is still a Doc in play I think. Do nukes reload? Do we have more nukes?

Someone please shoot me, I don't really know the way ooooout of this meeeeeess everyone's scuuuum (except Raik who can be SK)

[Zoomy Tsugumi]

Like, I'm not denying any of that because it's what has happened but it's as a result of strawberries reads and not as a result of being scum lol

[Bardiche]

Like, I sympathise on one hand but on the other you're all looking like scum to me so like, I'd prefer if one of you weren't scum?? Raikaria is at least confirmed not scum, and I want to believe Daiya's not scum because I just don't see any reason to claim submarine as scum so it's just...?????????

???????

[raikaria]

Still waiting on Meow to actually do something.

Bard does bring up a pretty good point about him not actually making a single case. He's kind of just coasted and posted things just townie enough to escape being #1 lurker.

I think at this point Meow might be the best nuke/lynch target, not really much else to say regarding this because he's not actually done too much else.

##Vote: Meow56

[raikaria]

Also the fact no-one has claimed Fighter and given their results makes me think Fighter is Scum/SK.

[Serela]

been laying in bed all day, it's pretty painful to look at bright screens right now, i didn't reread bard proper but i actually have liked him better since after he came back mid-d2 despite still thinking his earlygame looks pretty scummy. giving him some side-eye because he flopped over not doing anything because "zzzz role shens are lame i want to play mafia" when we were already at the point where we needed to decide who the scummiest person to lynch was again instead of role shens but he's basically made up for it since

also, nnr didn't remove dorms from the 1st post yet, we only have 6 people alive atm. and no deaths isn't a possibility unless we lynch another antitown (or nuke one with daiya, etc) because if the sk+maf dualtarget someone it'll kill through the doc from what i understand, iirc the doc role says only prevents first attempt of the night

maybe i was giving meow too hard of a newbie pass, not sure, hard to think atm

i do think the fact that people are clearing daiya off the claim pretty much proves in of itself that it can be a worthy gambit; what's better, avoiding suspicion or having a freebie nuke that won't actually make the game end earlier

[meow56]

OK, here I am.

Serela - Made vote analysis of beru -> Abu swing which has beru voting for me. I mean, he did vote for me, but only for 50 minutes, and he immediately voted zwerdjib after. And he made this switch in between vote counts, which implies you made this list yourself. I haven't the foggiest idea why you did this.

Daiya - Mildly annoyed that they are "happy to hear more" from me and "want to interact" with me more in DEFCON3, then proceed to disappear and forget about me. Also barely discusses Dormio at all--his one opinion on him pre-cop is "he's townie, but we should keep an eye on him". Thinks I'm likely to be North Korea because beru was the night kill.
Why does beru dying imply I'm North Korea, again?

Bardiche - Reading through, found this

I similarly don't really enjoy building cases that amount to nothing more than "this player doesn't post much"

Nice
But also,

(meow56) constantly hopes for Dormio to clear himself.

What post(s) made you think this?

raikaria - Confirmed not Russian, so low-priority read.
Zoomy Tsugumi - Still think they're townie, so low-priority as well. Bardiche's case may make me reconsider...

Daiya > Bardiche > Serela is probably my top 3.

Why do people think Battleship is town, again? Couldn't North Korea take it and use it on themselves?

[Serela]

it's pretty rare for roles to be able to self-target and if they are it's generally explicitly stated, so no, the doc is most likely not North Korea

Serela - Made vote analysis of beru -> Abu swing which has beru voting for me. I mean, he did vote for me, but only for 50 minutes, and he immediately voted zwerdjib after. And he made this switch in between vote counts, which implies you made this list yourself. I haven't the foggiest idea why you did this.

nnr hasn't exactly been making many votecounts. I went ahead and updated it through the next page so that it would be more relevant for votecount analysis

it's a good point that beru voted you but your chances of being lynched were also fairly low, given that no one else was voting you and they jumped off shortly after so i don't think it means anything

[Serela]

actually i'm not sure what meow's "analysis" on me actually has to do with anything tbh