Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Game Over!)

[Fabloo]

##Vote: Tom

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

Votecount
Tom (1): Fabloo
sb (0):
Fabloo (0):
raikaria (0):
banana spritzee (0):
Serela (0):
Yaersulf (0):
Disquieted (0):
BigBangMeteor (0):
Daiya (0):
PX (0):

There is currently 1 male character and 10 female characters in the game.
With 11 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch!
Not voting: sb, Tom, raikaria, banana spritzee, Serela, Yaersulf, Disquieted, BigBangMeteor, Daiya, PX

Time until day phase ends: [ Expired ]

[Fabloo]

I didn't think too hard over the night. I did however think that this game might just be the scum not playing and the town accusing each other. Again.

[Disquieted]

Oh this started.

Let's talk about the votecount. Of the people off wagon, you have:

- Serela doing Serela things
- Disquieted doing Disquieted things and specifically wanted Nucleus lynched anyways
- raikaria, who wanted Nucleus lynched in the first place and had to be bullied on Serela
- Two idlers

I have no doubts the game is not this easy especially since Bardiche was specifically annoyed because Nucleus was being slightly rude to him and you probably aren't that offended with your partner in that way. But this wagon formation is pretty much an incredible goldmine on all ends even if there was a busser, so we should examine this a bit more.

@ work.

[Disquieted]

There is also a distinct possibility that given Nucleus's slip that PX first picked up that Nucleus genuinely targeted Daiya N1 and didn't lie about it. Since Nucleus is a rolecop, I want to table Daiya for a bit.

This may be wrong, but Daiya did ~fine yesterday anyways.

[NekoNekoRex]

fades away angrily

[Yaersulf]

I did it, I caught my first scum! \o/

During the night I scimmed through D2 and took some notes on some of the stuff that happened early D2. Disclaimer I was mostly looking at stuff to do with Nucleus and also my priorities for what's important might be skewed by my newbishness. In the order they happened in the thread:

-Polaris was the first to point at Serela D2

-Nucleus defended Tom

-Disquieted voted Nucleus early (looks good for him)

-Tom was happy to pressure Serela with a vote

-In Nucleus reads thing he talked up BBM's towniness but later in the thread called him scum

-I made some notes here about how he seemed to be giving weird reasons why NNR isn't scum but, well :V

-Polaris refused to read Nucleus' posts, not sure how incriminating this is

-Nucleus claimed Serela is the "prime wagon" when that wasn't really true

-Nucleus' scumteam was BBM/Raikaria/Yaersulf

-Nucleus defended Tom again

-Nucleus pointed fingers at Disquieted

-Serela was rightfully confused

-Polaris claimed to believe Nucleus' claim, not long after Nucleus partially claimed prompted by Polaris

-Nucleus for some reason says there is "no immediate need to further pursue Daiya (I think and hope this remains true)."

-Tom reads enough of the thread assumedly to know that Polaris is dropping out, and posts as admin, but somehow still manages to lurk.

-Nucleus says Daiya is a townread

[Yaersulf]

My top pick is also Tom, and I think we should take a hard look at Polaris/SB.

##Vote: Tom

[Yaersulf]

Also here's this for your viewing pleasure.

Okay, player impressions.
---
Serela (3): Polaris, BigBangMeteor, Tom
^Leaves hardly an impression

Disquieted (1): NekoNekoRex
^Liked his logic and powerful intuition

NekoNekoRex (1): Disquieted
^Too emotional to be scum

banana spritzee (1): Yaersulf
^Leaves hardly an impression

NucleusWaffles (0):
^Paranoid, I did my fair share of reading in Ys lore and mafia meta

Polaris (0):
^Active and quick to switch votes

Tom (0):
^Data man, does not vote easily

Fabloo (0):
^I don't like his attitude. I read him as third party survivor lovers team in a 15P game, but he seemed glad to pick up on the masons claim and roll with it.

I don't mind his powers which are benign now, but both PX and Fabloo I want lynched before MyLo 

raikaria (0):
^Has a medical job which is very ethical, probably a good lynch just for the sake of his mental wellbeing

Yaersulf (0):
^All actions with abstract train of thought, I would vote

BigBangMeteor (0):
^Highly respected by Disquieted, also produces well articulated walls and very likable.
Was also in old MoTK games, buddying with Disquieted

Daiya (0):
^I forgot about him as of typing this sentence

PX (0):
^Team with Fabloo, power lurker who definitely seems less honest and upfront, how active are you in the 'masons' chat? Fabloo, really you should consider if PX is shaping your opinions. Of course, the argument wouldn't apply if both of you 'are' survivors

[Yaersulf]

I just realised, if Nucleus was scum, and his theoretical scumteam that he presented had three people, scum is likely to have been three people and is now down to two.

[Yaersulf]

Oh also, Serela and Disquieted, what was up with that late attempt to lynch Zeenana? Could you please explain your thought process there?

[Disquieted]

Oh also, Serela and Disquieted, what was up with that late attempt to lynch Zeenana? Could you please explain your thought process there?

I was abstaining, courteously.

[BigBangMeteor]

Nobody could almost swing a lynch away from a 1v1 like serela did last night

Serela, results?

Inclined to think that Daiya probably was the actual target of the rolecop.

I don't really understand the Tom lynch in terms of interactions to nucleus? Is it just cuz nucleus defended him?

Every night I put off reading the thread in hopes that scum kills me and I don't have to and every night I am disappointed. Need to reread nucleus and his read on everyone/their reads on him. The shift to the hard push on me/raikaria was pretty weird.

[Yaersulf]

Fabloo/PX, did you do anything similar to how you added the gender count to the votecount?

[Disquieted]

Speaking of, apparently someone seems to have grown a gender overnight.

BBM, who do you want to lynch?

[Fabloo]

Fabloo/PX, did you do anything similar to how you added the gender count to the votecount?

Something may or may not happen today.

[Tom]

Sunrise Statistics

Your daily dose of math, statistics and charts!

Per Player Voting Trends
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Total Voting Trends
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Voting Heatmap
(Click to expand)
[ Attachment: You are not allowed to view attachments ]

[Daiya]

as much as i'd hate to ruin my perfect clear, are we sure that waffles didn't just cop serela? it's odd that he happened to claim universal backup of all things, so i'm tempted to believe that the whole point of his gambit was to draw out a counter-claim. other thing is that the push he made from that was never really followed up by anyone. it still ended up being serela v waffles.

[BigBangMeteor]

tbh I'm looking at the playerlist and it almost feels like Tom has to be scum by PoE. I kind of get the sense that this scumteam isn't very experienced so all my strawberries about player balance between the teams may be wrong!!! The "Weak" part of Nucleus's claim just seems like something that a more experienced player would have steered him away from. A pseudo-cop was never gonna exist with masons and a tracker.

I don't feel like Polaris/SB can be buddies with Nucleus here. Firstly, Polaris was the one who told Nucleus to claim in the first place and I have to feel that Polaris would have better prepped him if they were buddies. Plus, SB was one of the main voices making sure Nucleus was the lynch after Serela officially CCed. It could be a hard bus I guess but just seems very unnecessary? Also I can't imagine scum deliberately hardbussing their rolecop on D2 when they still don't know who the protective role is.

wondering if smartbomb would refuge in audacity not vote nucleus on a lynch he had to know was like 90% likely to go through.

need to examine interactions closely but I'm thinking Tom/banana > raikaria/smartbomb > daiya/yaersulf.

also, interesting note. our non-gendered player seems to have become a female.

[Disquieted]

If Waffles copped Serela, why would he claim?

You say to draw out the counterclaim, but by your logic, they already know the universal backup. They don't need to cop him and then claim backup to get info they already knew.

[BigBangMeteor]

as much as i'd hate to ruin my perfect clear, are we sure that waffles didn't just cop serela? it's odd that he happened to claim universal backup of all things, so i'm tempted to believe that the whole point of his gambit was to draw out a counter-claim. other thing is that the push he made from that was never really followed up by anyone. it still ended up being serela v waffles.

but if they had copped serela why would they need to draw out a CC? they would have just killed him n2. by drawing out the CC they actually made it harder to kill him because otherwise the protective role wouldnt know who to target.

[Daiya]

ah, you're right. this situation makes even less sense now.

[Disquieted]

The way I see it, Nucleus was intelligent and came up with a claim all by himself. He pushed it through or didn't tell his friends, and he just ran with it. It just also happened to be Serela's role.

As far as I can tell it was such a good claim flavourwise that Fabloo fell for it, so.

[Fabloo]

I just don't believe that you experienced lot would still let the two masons stay alive along with Serela.

[BigBangMeteor]

I mean he literally just copy/pasted his role PM flavour tbh and fabloo made the classic mistake of flavour speccing. but yeah he could have made it up I suppose.

anyways bbl after reading a bunch of stuff

also fire truck this avatar is no good, the words are too small. damnit. for reference it says GOTCHA

yeah umm. idk. they're bigbraining themselves out of too many things. i thought PX was gonna get killed.

[Yaersulf]

Alright, so I've figured out the best way to survive day one is to just lurk since without data everything is meaningless.  Everyone who's said a lot of things has gotten votes and those who've said the least have not.  I should have figured this out sooner and shut up but I wanted to be active considering this is my first game.

##Unvote
##Vote: Fabloo
Nothing against you mate, I'm just joining your wagon like Nucleus suggested so I can at least get to the next stage where we can actually start finding who's scum using our power roles, and its pointless to claim doc, vig or cop since mafia will just nightkill you first and put everyone at a disadvantage.

In response to Polaris' reply its day freaking one, you're right I don't care about scumhunting without data since as its just speculation.  I'd rather base any claims I made on real data like our power roles findings, who the night kill was and votes.  I should have just shut up and lurked as saying anything just makes everyone attack you

Tom, are you perchance better with numbers or graphs?

Noting your technological proficiency perhaps you can leverage a strong argument using online times and posting frequencies.

Words are frustrating, don't lose faith.

Indeed I only like to make strong claims backed by evidence such as numbers, and especially power role information.
But its too early since we have no data, post frequencies are circumstantial as people do other things than play mafia.  Which is why I'm just counterattacking whoever attacks me in case they slip up and do something outright scummy.  Anyways I'm not going to dig my own grave anymore and will just lurk for the remainder of the day, if I make it great you'll have someone who will analyze the votes and try to find correlations on your side, if I don't well I've learned the MotK Meta for next time.

[Yaersulf]

Pictured: Nucleus giving Tom a convenient out from having to actually participate in the thread.

[Serela]

EoD yesterday was so insanely wild, I got roped into the 'harmless third party fabloo" as he claimed ridiciulous things like Weak and I'm always weak to turbowagons, oops. I do still want to lynch Banana tho', and Tom too. Tom's at least new but he's done like... absolutely nothing other than provide charts with no analysis of their data and drop votes since d2 started. Banana's also done almost literally nothing since replacing in beyond drop votes and promise reads that never happens, and Banana ISN'T on their first mafia game, so this is ridiculously lurkscummy.

##Vote Banana Spritzee

With scum fully aware of a tracker, I tried to target not the obvscum, but the possibly 'townier' scum who might be doing a nightkill in their place. So, I went after Raikaria, assuming scumteam probably isn't a mix of banana/tom/waffle/daiya because that just sounds like a bad hosting idea? And I don't think NNR(rip)/BBM/SB/Disquieted are super likely to be scum. Then again, that's every veteran player other than Rai and masons, so that could be wrong @_@

But predictably for me not turning up dead, I was roleblocked :C

[Tom]

Indeed I have been a little inactive, its been a busy weekend, but I've been keeping up as much as I can and reread D2 while making the charts.  Going into D3 I have to agree with Serela that banana has all but disappeared from the game which has earned my vote

##Vote Banana Spritzee

[Tom]

As for those who are voting me due to Nucleus' behavior all I have to say is I never defended them back