this is sb's opening post d3 where he goes hard on Dan/Niek
My townread on Shadoweh being ignored and her getting lynched really is like old times huh? >.> At least this one wasn't in LYLO.
I thought about this overnight and I want to lynch in hard lurkers today (Dan/Niek) because their slots are going to be a huge question mark going forwards and I don't think we'll be able to solve them with roles considering we already have vig/masons.
##Vote: ActionDan
I think their end of phase yesterday was really weird. Their D1 was actually alright but it feels like he just flipped a switch and forgot all about it? His entire progression D1 seemed to imply they were good with lynching Shadoweh and Duskfall was null, but then they went and voted for Duskfall yesterday? I don't know how much this means since Shadoweh flipped town and Duskfall is the unknown but I can't wrap my head around it. Dan, what changed during D2 to make you want to vote for Duskfall instead of Shadoweh? I know you said the read changed but like... why? It's so out of nowhere.
I think that Niek is getting too much of a free pass for being a newbie, and nobody is talking about it despite nobody townreading him. The way the wagon built and dissolved so suddenly yesterday was kinda spooky and he feels like he's playing really safe. They say its a personality thing but it kinda reminds me of my first scumgame where I was talking a lot about game mechanic stuff to feel helpful and struggled to formulate fake reads.
I was townreading Duskfall initially because I thought their reaction to being threatened to be vig was most likely a town PR (because scum would just roleblock vig!Abu probably and it didn't feel like VT on). Then the Masons claimed and I was less sure, and then they claimed Vanilla. I'm really confused on like, how they didn't claim to be scumreading Shadoweh when they were effectively listing reasons to scumread her at phase end. I wanna see what they think of their wagon today now that Shadoweh has flipped town because I'm not happy.
I still don't like Oarfish, they stopped scumhunting yesterday as soon as the heat was off of them. Their scumreads yesterday were reactionary aside from Shadoweh, who they were scumreading for not meeting their expectations of being Shadoweh on D1? But they also said that Shadoweh's D2 posts were better so it confuses me that they still listed them as a scumread without properly bridging the gap between this. I can see why they would vote them over Duskfall in the end of the day still, but they just popped a vote and vanished.
I hope Zeep posts more like he said he would, but his end of phase votechange felt like he'd actually been convinced to move, and so I feel a bit better about him.
Serela why are you worried about Nuxl right now? I uh, don't share your paranoia aside from "maybe he could've been shot by now as universal townread" but I think scum would probably be more scared of Fabloo last night too.
Zeep's priority is duskfall, and Conq's are duskfall with some pressure on Dan.
Niek fluffposts, and Zeep moves to sheep Raikaria's case on me. Conq states that he wishes he could purge the votes from anyone voting me for reasons Raik stated. After tearing into Raik's case on himself, Conq states interest in turning around his Raikaria read... hmm. This reads pretty natural from a town perspective, though, tbh, and he does state shortly after that Rai would do this as town anyway.
At this point Dan starts playing, and his scum priorities are Dusk and Niek as well, with a comment that zwerd is 'a player alright'. Then, sb drunkenly admits their love for Dormio B)
here SB looks like he's trying to question Dan on reads in a way that might seem kinda like scum buddying up to try to justify eventually not voting him anymore? Hmm. Or maybe he's just trying to keep up his case vs. Dan to justify his vote sitting there when Dan's still playing, actually. I guess it's neutral.
conq slapfights with townies some more and Dan votes duskfall.
Niek submits REAL opinions!! They're on Raikaria, Nuxl, and Duskfall, ending in a dusk vote. Hmm. This isn't a great look.
here's more sb/conq interaction
@Conq The voteswitches here, here and here are what I'm talking about. I didn't see why you'd vote Niek to try and make them post and just... not comment about Niek posting right after you voted them (weird circumstance) when you unvoted to go back to Shadoweh. I know that I asked you about this before and you just said they were fine but... Idk, I figured there would be something more to it. Changing to vote Duskfall over Shadoweh again a few hours later felt better justified, but also really scattered? Like you didn't care that much where your vote actually was.
Also I don't think you'd take a case you disagree with lying down but honestly I was starting to get the same vibes I did from you in TPP where you thunderdomed the fire truck out of me and Refa and was really confused because it seemed out of place. Still am confused, kinda. I don't get that vibe from your latest posts though and I'm not sure what that means?
Wrt Execution : "I'm still sorting my reads on other players out so don't rush hammer yet" or something other than just "yeah, don't hammer guys even though Shadoweh is definitely absolutely scum".
hmm sb presses Dan and Niek over hopping into the Dusk wagon.
sb latest opinions
Conq is in this weird place now where smartbomb's case is genuinely good and there are some oddities (see my other recent posts) but overall his gameplay is strong in a way that I just can't feel confident about lynching it. It feels like he's genuinely frustrated with the game and that makes sense after Shadoweh flipped town for Conq here I think? It looks like he genuinely beleives in his defense which is a point in his favour and I can't reconcile my read on him properly. I'm kind of uncomfortable but not willing to lynch here today I think.
In conclusion? fire truck mafia honestly. I still think in spite of Duskfall weirdness that Dan is the most revealing lynch with a good chance of flipping scum. Oarfish lynch is still good, Conq and Duskfall are weird question marks and Niek is a scummier question mark.
hmmmmmmmm. He definitely wanted to lynch Dan. Dan was in a spot where bussing wasn't out of the question and he wanted niek gone sooner or later. Interesting that's all the three people we're evaluating here, and I'd say it points more to a scumteam with Conq in it compared to otherwise where he's bussing both buddies as his top lynches past universal decent lynch option o4rfish.
Quote from: Duskfall98 on March 15, 2020, 07:04:51 PM ----- Is anyone having fun
Define "fun".
lmao niek <3
...sb and conq actually have a pretty long discussion after this with lots of big quotestripe posts at eachother... man why can't anything be easy
sb:
We have less than 2.5 hours. Oarfish is my backup lynch if Dan is not possible and the others I'm kinda less comfortable with.
sb -really- wants to lynch dan. tbf dan's a pretty decent easy-to-justify-easy-bus-cred lynch option tho. i guess it's neutral towards dan alignment?
at this point i claim, to stop the o4rfish lynch.
Suddenly SB starts thinking, oh hey, maybe niek IS the scummier lurker here!
Niek am I actually invisible?
We don't know what role Serela has and we don't know the alignment of that role. We also don't know the role of any of the mafia members.
Duskfall I have no idea what you're trying to say with that last part but why does scum!SB bus scum!Dan today?
this last sentence is kind of hilarious to read right now
sb again
Hint: I'm less confident than before because Dan's posts have been getting better.
Nobody would give me cred for bussing scum!Dan lol. Dormio already made a post on me earlier in the game about how I've bussed in past games and people haven't wanted to townread me at all here anyway except for Serela, and that's all game long.
Was the other part of your post supposed to be me setting up your lynch tomorrow or something?
yeah this is starting to look like SB backing off his scumbuddy, I think it'd be very easy for dan as a mislynch to be a full speed ahead wagon even if he suddenly made some ok posts after being gone nearly the whole game
Dan's ok with a zwerd turbo but I think this would be a good place for Dan to suddenly 360 his town cred from almost nothing to shining townie after a comparatively pretty good performance in d3, and encouraging a turbowagon on a scumbuddy who isn't putting out the content that'll keep him away from the lynch much longer.
nuxl -really- wanted to vote conq at the end there and got nightkilled over a blatantly claiming town PR and two masons
anyway this was very stream of consciousness and not necessarily a ton of analysis, but I tried to collect most interesting highlights from scumteam (and possible scumteam) from all of D3 and this was the result.
##Vote ActionDani 100% feel like this is the correct decision
