Neo Forum Mafia - Game Over

[Conqueror]

Did you read my response to him?

[Conqueror]

At the beginning of d3 I was thinking we are losing because scum are playing better than we are. I suspected the good players to be scum for that reason. Then I read that it's better to lynch players for scummy behavior. I've been trying more traditional ways to play this game.

But then Disquieted posted, and ...

Have you ever done something that took a lot of work, and then had someone show up and show you how it's really done, at a level you couldn't get to even with lots of practice? When that happens to me, I get jealous of their talent. All I can do is applaud.

This is me applauding.
##Vote: Conqueror

Please point out the parts of his case you liked.

[Kilgamayan]

Vote Count 3.3

ActionDan (Rinnosuke Morichika) (3): sb, Serela, NekoNekoRex
O4rfish (Rumia) (2): Dormio Ergo Sum, Raikaria
Conqueror (Tenshi Hinanawi) (2): Raikaria, Disquieted, O4rfish
Serela (Koishi Komeiji) (1): Raikaria, Duskfall98, zwerdjib
sb (Sanae Kochiya) (0): Disquieted
Dormio (Ran Yakumo) (0):
Raikaria (Sunny Milk) (0):
zwerdjib (Yuyuko Saigyouji) (0):
Disquieted (Reimu Hakurei) (0):
NekoNekoRex (Chen) (0):
Duskfall98 (Shinki) (0):
Nuxl (Youki Konpaku) (0):
Niektory (Yukari Yakumo) (0):

Not voting (5): Conqueror, ActionDan, Nuxl, Niektory, zwerdjib

with 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. You have a little over 27 hours remaining.

[O4rfish]

Conq, you went through Shadoweh and came out the other side. She and you almost had Duskfall lynched. She's now revealed to be town. If I was in your place, I would be handing out torches and pitchforks. 

[O4rfish]

Conq and Duskfall were cooperating d1. Now that Shadoweh is dead, Conq is saying Duskfall is probably town (being 0-3 for lynches). This makes me think the entire d2 meant nothing to him.

[O4rfish]

But how could that be? He spent so much time digging into Shadoweh and taking her true measure. That was a large emotional investment, right?

Not if he already knew Shadoweh's alignment.

[Conqueror]

Conq, you went through Shadoweh and came out the other side. She and you almost had Duskfall lynched. She's now revealed to be town. If I was in your place, I would be handing out torches and pitchforks. 

Mhmm. I'm not you though. I already tried the torches and pitchforks approach with Shadoweh. Nothing I said about duskfall has really changed but if I was wrong about Shadoweh for so long I have to accept the possibility that I was also wrong elsewhere. I'm also alive for a reason and it's probably because my reads are off.

Conq and Duskfall were cooperating d1. Now that Shadoweh is dead, Conq is saying Duskfall is probably town (being 0-3 for lynches). This makes me think the entire d2 meant nothing to him.

Can you point out where I said duskfall was probably town?

[Conqueror]

But how could that be? He spent so much time digging into Shadoweh and taking her true measure. That was a large emotional investment, right?

Not if he already knew Shadoweh's alignment.

If I already knew Shadoweh's alignment there was no reason for me to do any of the EOD song and dance yesterday. The reason that happened was because Shadoweh showed up in thread and I decided to give her the benefit of the doubt.

[Conqueror]

If I'm getting major pushback on a read of mine from people I don't necessarily think are mafia, I'll usually drop it.
Here's my most recent town game where you can see this.
https://forums.serenesforest.net/index.php?/topic/83239-twitch-plays-pokemon-mafia-noc15pgame-over-town-wins/
I got into a slapfight with refa and then I did a 180 on him later because refa was getting no traction.

[raikaria]

So I just got in. Immediate raised eyebrow to O4rfish voting Conq after saying repeatedly that Conq was his best townread.

Good news, I got a late start tomorrow. So I can actually do some mafia stuff before work; not after my brain has been fried.

@ Conq: I never said interactions between You-O4r were massively swingy in me weighing up O4r v Serela as a priority. But they were close enough in my mind that the information gathered post-flip was a tiebreaker.

[Conqueror]

@ Conq: I never said interactions between You-O4r were massively swingy in me weighing up O4r v Serela as a priority. But they were close enough in my mind that the information gathered post-flip was a tiebreaker.

Okay, fair enough. But did you see what I said about the interactions you pointed out? That was what I was so frustrated about when I read your case.

[raikaria]

Okay, fair enough. But did you see what I said about the interactions you pointed out? That was what I was so frustrated about when I read your case.

I mean I'd been up for like 30 mins and was getting ready for work...

I get that your focus was on what O4rfish said in #1218. But this doesn't change the fact he'd just given his opinion specifically on you only 6 posts prior, and it dosen't change the fact you didn't follow up on it like you have with most other questions you've asked players.

To me; that seems like an abnormal interaction. I'm trying to look for fishy interactions and potential scumteams.

[raikaria]

I mean I'd been up for like 30 mins and was getting ready for work...

I mean when I was replying to stuff this morning, not making the OG point.

[Conqueror]

I get that your focus was on what O4rfish said in #1218. But this doesn't change the fact he'd just given his opinion specifically on you only 6 posts prior, and it dosen't change the fact you didn't follow up on it like you have with most other questions you've asked players.

i've quoted the series of posts here

To Refa in re Serela's voters, Serela's posts
Serela is tough for me to read.  I've misread Serela with high confidence, as people know.
Conq is a pretty good player.  I think his attack on Serela makes sense, but it's within his ability to fake.  Reading his posts also makes me suspect Shadoweh, for not responding properly to his gambit. 
If Shadoweh is town, then her townread on Conq is probably valid.  But if Conq is town and continues to have a scumread on Shadoweh, then that's probably valid.

Conq and Shadoweh and Serela have played many games with each other.  If they have a strong read, it's probably accurate.  If they're town, they'll tell the truth about having a strong read.  However, if they're scum, they could choose between a true read for false reasons, or a false read for false reasons.

oh right, oarfish i think i saw you mention something about me/serela/shadoweh's reads on each other but it's not like we have rock solid accuracy on each other. what's your current read on me/serela/shadoweh?

To me, none of what he said in that first post was a read. He said he didn't have a read on Serela, he didn't have a read on me, and he found Shadoweh suspicious based on my read. Then some if/then statements about me and Shadoweh.
The statement about me, Serela, Shadoweh all having accurate reads on each other in tandem with this is what made me want to ask him what our actual reads of each other were. You're right that I forgot to follow up on it. It happens.

[ActionDan]

Well time to digest some walls.

But Serela is right we should be placing votes around.

##Vote: Duskfall

Serela do you actually townread... the whole game?

[ActionDan]

still typing and constantly refreshing, but would you as a host entertain that kind of stuff and then publicly declare it lmao

I was more thinking "Kilga, do scum typically have daytalk here?" not "Hey Kilga can you publically post that scum in fact have daytalk, thanks bud."

[O4rfish]

Does anyone remember that game where Conq was the towny scum at LYLO and then BT lynched him?

[O4rfish]

Abu could have asked Kilga.

[Niektory]

koishi is satoris sister

raikaria's end of Day 1 self vote was risky and I don't think scum would do that.

Nuxl talks a lot about his previous experiences on other sites and how it makes him feel about people. So hard to really agree or disagree with much of that. His posting style is also stream-of-consciousness-ish and kind of hard to wrap my head around. He seems to not understand me at all either so I guess it's mutual in a way. ^^;
His response to the mod announcement thing probably clears him since nobody objected to it. He also talking about the possibility of coaching on Day 1 which I later raised doubts about so him asking the question seems believable. I guess it would be possible to do that as scum but I'm not feeling it. If that's the case then god damn it he plays dirty (and is likely in cahoots with Duskfall98).

Dormio claimed (what seems to be) masons with NekoNekoRex. How likely are they to lie and get away with it? sb mentioned a massclaim would expose them, so I guess we'll be doing that at some point? And how would it expose them?

O4rfish is apparently following some manual:

I've read that Town/Town lynches the scumteam splits between them, but with a heated mislynch like Abu's the scumteam won't join in because they don't like to fake anger.

I've read that the presence of those is a moderate scumtell, and the absence is a strong towntell.

From what I've read, the better play is for me to assume he's town.

Then I read that it's better to lynch players for scummy behavior.

Duskfall98 managed to overtake Nuxl in the number of posts. Ugh. Mostly just throwing random statements around and when prodded about them providing really weird reasoning:

Prime was probably killed for pr hunting reasons id imagine

Ftr people are wondering why I thought prims would be pr target; sometimes when people are playing differently and look scummy or off meta to town players, they look the same for scum players. So like town players read the difference as "not town", scum players read the difference as "not VT", bit I guess I'm the only one following this logic now oops

I'm still perfectly fine with lynching him.

##Vote: Duskfall98

I know I'm mostly restating the obvious but I keep digging and coming up with nothing. My GAMER HONOR is screaming at me for being so useless. Well, I'm not one to give up though so I'll be around till the bitter end.

[sb]

@Nuxl I was saying empowerer was unlikely lol (although I guess safeguard would be the more expected role to appear). Also I already explained this multiple times but I thought that NNR voting Serela was what painted a lot of his actions as worse. Once I realised that the Serela thing was a jokevote, the other actions just became less scummy by comparison aside from how they acted with Abu iirc.

@smartbomb I... didn't have a strong read on Duskfall before so like, kind of yes? This game is majority lynch, I didn't want Shadoweh lynched and the wagon on Oarfish faded out so I was left without any other options? I really don't understand what you're getting out here.

Anyway, I also disagree that I've been passive and just focused in on one or two wagons? You could kind of argue that about my phase end play but during the day phases I've pressured or questioned a lot of people even before today (NNR, Zeep, Niek) so I don't think I've been tunnel visioned or anything. I definitely haven't been liberal with outing my townreads but I really don't see the point in that outside of scenarios like "trying to save Shadoweh from lynch". The thread is already cluttered as heck anyway.

@Conq The voteswitches here, here and here are what I'm talking about. I didn't see why you'd vote Niek to try and make them post and just... not comment about Niek posting right after you voted them (weird circumstance) when you unvoted to go back to Shadoweh. I know that I asked you about this before and you just said they were fine but... Idk, I figured there would be something more to it. Changing to vote Duskfall over Shadoweh again a few hours later felt better justified, but also really scattered? Like you didn't care that much where your vote actually was.

Also I don't think you'd take a case you disagree with lying down but honestly I was starting to get the same vibes I did from you in TPP where you thunderdomed the fire truck out of me and Refa and was really confused because it seemed out of place. Still am confused, kinda. I don't get that vibe from your latest posts though and I'm not sure what that means?

Wrt Execution : "I'm still sorting my reads on other players out so don't rush hammer yet" or something other than just "yeah, don't hammer guys even though Shadoweh is definitely absolutely scum".

Gonna post again in a few minutes, this is getting seriously long.

[Serela]

Does anyone remember that game where Conq was the towny scum at LYLO and then BT lynched him?

HEY I LYNCHED HIM TOO OK

also yes dan my misery is real, every time i reread anyone in this game the green indicators of townie townness jump out everywhere, the way dusk thinks, nuxl's meta reads on him, it just doesn't seem scum at all even though his actual play seems sort of scummy, niektory being confused d1 because he was assuming from the start that scum did not have daytalk so he didn't know how anyone could be getting coached by their buddies, rai's high effort play with big cases and rereads and connections over multiple players (even if I'M SORRY I REALLY DON'T AGREE WITH THEM), refa's intense curiosity and questioning of everyone and everything, dorms and nnr are masons, and sb/conq just look strongly and consistently town imo, esp. conq today

[Duskfall98]

Is anyone having fun

[Serela]

i was having fun for most of d2 (after the start of it) and early d3 but now i realize oh god everyone is town may god save our souls

[sb]

@Niek

A massclaim would make scum!Mason claims look dubious because there would be a higher number of power roles than we'd normally expect in the setup. It's hard to read into without seeing scumflips but Masons are kinda unique in that they start to look reaaally weird if there are other roles in the game that can generate clears as well (Masons self-clear, Vig also self-clears but we lynched it) because scum need a healthy number of roles that they can push mislynches on.

The bitter end comment has me kind of confused because you're not even being voted afaik? Do you think Oarfish's posts are more likely to be scum or not? I can't tell from your post if you're just nullreading them after saying that.

[Duskfall98]

Btw people voting me I'm modspewed town

[sb]

Hi I've tried posting like 5 times and it keeps giving me errors syaing that I already made the post? help?

[sb]

OF COURSE that was the one that finally went through instead of any of my posts that said mafia sucks.

[Duskfall98]

Happens to me all the time, you have to completely leave the post screen and try again but don't get caught by the 30 second timer or you will have to do it again

[sb]

Does anyone remember that game where Conq was the towny scum at LYLO and then BT lynched him?

Mirai Nikki.

Thoughts on Conq's latest posts before that though?

[ActionDan]

Abu could have asked Kilga.

If he did, and Nuxl claimed it was him, that'd be quite bold to assume no living player did so.

Smartbomb, I read your post about Conq and other general reads. Considering Conq might very well be a wagon at some point I'd like to go over a couple of things in there so I can make a more informed read on him.

On Abu's vig claim and general EOD1:

The post you quoted seems ok to me. The line "Vigging dusk does not make me less inclined to lynch you" is the only thing I'd find fault with since I don't know why anyone would care if dusk was vigged there unless Conq thought Dusk was town.

Can you point me to the post referenced below if it's not #636

the heel turn Conqueror makes to eventually lynch Abu is... like very opportunistic and I can't see how this comes from a town alignment. It's a very classic pressure slip.

if that does refer to #636 then I think that's more a natural reaction since at that point it does look like Abu gave up.

With regard to the tracker claim D2: Does not #1094 answer the questions that prefaces your quote of Conq's 1093? Now I dunno if I'd believe those reasons, but its a rather concise explanation. I don't agree with the premise that a person not falling over = a town read, especially for a player of shadoweh's caliber, so it makes sense to me that if Conq got nothing out of it then there's no reason to alter his read.

For the general play part, you said that Conq hasn't been thinking about other people aside from Shadoweh D2 and also that

It... just doesn't feel like he's tunnelling at all. Like he said, he moved off from Shadoweh to Duskfall. I don't know why Duskfall, really, I'm staring at these posts and I have no idea why Duskfall over any other player in the game. So like that's really bad for him cause it means he's evaluating other options, right? But he's not saying anything about them.

Can you clarify what you mean here? I think that if Conq was evaluating people not named shadoweh, and yet, limiting his opinions on them, then I think that is scummy. It's something I do as scum often. Can you expand on where you think this occurs if its esay to show, or is it something I should get if I reread D2, say. I don't really want to read, but I'd be interested in checking this.

Otherwise the responses to Raikaria were fine imo, and as I mentioned earlier there seemed to me to be a couple instances where Conq was thinking about Raikaria's alignment moreso than simply trying to prove Raikaria's case wrong.

We seem to have different reads on oarfish/sb, though I haven't really updated my sb read in a while and he deserves a fresh look through.

We really have completely different views on Niektory's posts. Can you point out the text that is "unclean"? most of Niek's posts touch Abu so I'm not sure what you're referring to. But If it's one where Niek votes Serela, then I have a hard time seeing how that is "good".