Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Game Over!)

[Dormio Ergo Sum]

Votecount
Disquieted (5): NekoNekoRex, Serela, banana spritzee, BigBangMeteor, Tom (L-2)
Daiya (3): Disquieted, Fabloo, Polaris
NucleusWaffles (2): Yaersulf, PX
Polaris (1): Daiya
Yaersulf (1): NucleusWaffles
Serela (0):
NekoNekoRex (0):
BigBangMeteor (0):
banana spritzee (0):
Tom (0):
Fabloo (0):
raikaria (0):
PX (0):

There are currently 2 male characters and 11 female characters in the game.
With 13 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch!
Not voting: raikaria
Disquieted is at L-2!

Time until day phase ends: [ Expired ]

[raikaria]

That's an accurate observation. I scumread Daiya.

Yes, it also represents raikaria. I believe the excuse for not voting raikaria is "I hope he doesn't die of coronavirus." If you're talking about how raikaria reads people, I'm pretty sure he's like this regardless of alignment.

I'm back. Reading stuff.

Just gonna say there really isn't much 'Raikaria scum meta' because I roll scum super infrequently. This dosen't rule me out as scum.

However I'd like to think my prattleing and atempts at casemaking, as well as my arguments and viewpoints on why newbie passes are imo bad, at least seem like they are coming from a town position.

Anyway I'll be around for most of the next uuuh... 7ish hours. Except for food. Which is soon. Probobly won't get much out before food because I need to read and I need to think.

Also; I saw before I went to work; I know Polaris; you don't like empty unvotes. I don't like them either. But it was that or I go back to a vote from D1 on Tom/Yasulf that hasn't really got anything new since D1 to add to it [at that time] and people are accuseing me of just parking on newbies because easy lynches and such as it is; so unvoting and just going back to a newbie lynch to sit on for like 16 hours isn't great either.

[NekoNekoRex]

I've probably missed a lot. I strained my ankle at work and it was pretty sore all night and I wasnt really in the mood to focus on things.

Unfortunately i have work again so thw going is slow

[Polaris]

Polaris I know you've given up on logic but, what made you pick Daiya over Disquieted, Serela, or NucleusWaffles? What caused you to change your mind on him, because I remember you saying you were going to ease up on him?

1. wagons baybee
2. preempting bbm's switch because unlike him, i don't care if my vote makes me look like a dumbass
3. i started day 2 with a scumread on daiya and it's bbm's fault i overthought it anyway
4. after careful consideration (of which i mean not thinking about mafia at all for a couple hours) the actual constituents of the smartbomb wagon is pretty poor
5. i just want to get this day over with T_T

clearly the sub-conclusion is that i need to get rid of bbm

[Daiya]

I like disqbomb's last post. Need to think about a few things.

Unvote, for now.

[raikaria]

Oh, we got like 1 day 8 hours left, so I actually have a day off where I can mafia.

That relives a lot of pressure.

I'm actually not on board with the Smartbomb wagon. It kinda feels like a Day 1 lynch at this point, Smartbomb seems to be one of the people trying to make discussion but everyone's turning on him. My improved read of BBM has also softened my opinion on Smartbomb based on their D1 interactions somewhat.

I'm also not particually fond of the Daiya wagon. Daiya hasn't been the most active player, but I've townread most of what they've said comparatively more than I've townread most other low-activity players. And this includes PX who is a claimed mason.

So I'm in this weird position where I think neither major wagon is any good.

Tom and Yaersulf continue to not really impress me, but Tom basically just showed up and voted Smartbomb and it seems like Yaersulf; while he looks wholly unimpressive to me, is at least making the barest amount of effort.

I think I'm going to do this for now, sort of following my process I laid out when talking to BBM. Most of the posts seem to happen while I'm sleeping anyway, and I can look at stuff tomorrow with a clear not-work addled head and maybe I'll see something there.

I think Tom is scummy due to low~no effort posts and not really doing anything that even looks like a pro-town effort.

I think Tom is a low-risk lynch for town because he's not really contributeing to town at all anyway.

It's a really; really baseline scum case. I know. But sometimes that's what you need, and my head really isn't in the state to think too much deeper than that and process 30+ pages of re-reading mafia right now.

##Vote: Tom

[BigBangMeteor]

Also, in defense of Serela, Serela seems serene and a genuinely nice person despite being screamed at by everyone for being useless. Why must you all bully him so?

these are the posts I'm looking for (not actually). seriously speaking, most people are nice and we're mostly all friends here so whether someone is nice isn't a good way to read them.

statistics can be useful on a bigger game sample size (it's way too much effort to collect such statistics in a concrete numerical way but that's essentially what meta is). they're not really very useful inside of a single game because there's too many factors. if you want you can go through every player's posts individually and ctrl+f every other player and write down how many times they mention that player. what would that really tell you?

bard wouldn't have subbed out just because he was under some attention. bard is an experienced enough player that he wouldn't be put off by a few ED1 votes. i think he was legitimately just upset.

everything sucks. thinking of going back to raikaria but I don't sense other people are on board with that and don't feel confident enough in it to be able to convince other people anyways. want to see what raikaria posts today.

feels like a lot of the new players react in townish ways under pressure but are kind of coasting otherwise? nucleus i don't think is coasting exactly but takes a lot of words to say not a lot of stuff.

[BigBangMeteor]

ugh. i can't really develop a good reason to not lynch tom that isn't based off like ED1 stuff at this point. but it feels very much like a classic "consolidate on a newb" lynch because it's the lowest risk.

the risk is that we probably have two mislynches left and our main info roles are dead/depleted.

[Polaris]

if there is something i want to commend raikaria for, it's that (despite having a low post frequency) he's at least been consistent on letting us know "here is approximately when i will be able to post again" and then actually delivering, as far as i can tell

[Polaris]

perhaps that is just "good play" instead of "town play" in consideration of the discussions that were had earlier

[Fabloo]

The only reason I don't think we should lynch the newbies is beacuse if it's not a bingo then. We go back to zero. Kinda like how the meow56 lynch gave us essentially nothing. Players who are active or at least have represented themselves to some degree will be easier to read off their flips. It's possible that some newbies are lurkscum but I personally believe this will be made evident as time goes on.

[Fabloo]

Tom is kinda scummy yes. His D2 he essentially said he's gonna park and do nothing. Anti-town even. What if he's just that though? Anti-town that is. We've given scum another freebie. I don't believe the team is all in the background right now. They are definitely being talked about. Even talking.

[raikaria]

the risk is that we probably have two mislynches left and our main info roles are dead/depleted.

May I ask where you are getting this from?

This is a 15p game. We're currently on 13.

Mislynch -> 11 -> 9. Assumeing no saves.

It could be a 3 scum game, we had 4 in 16p. So I guess it's not an unreasonable assumption, but it is also not a certainty.

But then there's the question of how you know all Town PR's are dead/depleted after only N1.

[raikaria]

Also while I think it's best to re-read the thread with a clear mind ect when I wake tomorrow; I'll still be around for any questions people may wish to direct to me, or discussions they wish to have.

I just think it's best to save full re-read/casebuilding for a fresh mind. I need some time to unwind.

[raikaria]

The only reason I don't think we should lynch the newbies is beacuse if it's not a bingo then. We go back to zero. Kinda like how the meow56 lynch gave us essentially nothing. Players who are active or at least have represented themselves to some degree will be easier to read off their flips. It's possible that some newbies are lurkscum but I personally believe this will be made evident as time goes on.

I do not think we should lynch Tom because he is a newbie.

I think we should lynch Tom because at best he is anti-town and at worst he is scum.

[raikaria]

I think that's a very important point I should re-iterate.

I do not look at people based on their experience.

I do not think we should or should not lynch someone based on if they are or are not a newbie.

I think such arguments are pointless. Lynch who looks scummy. Experience is not a factor.

[Fabloo]

So what do you think happens if Tom isn't scum rai?

[BigBangMeteor]

15p games are generally either 11/4 or 11/3/1. Given that we have no evidence to suggest a third party exists atm it's probably 11/4. So that means we're probably at 9/4 right now and 2 more mislynches brings us to 5/4. It's possible it's 12/3 but that seems a bit too town-sided.

i don't think all of town's PRs are dead but I think given masons + tracker I would be highly surprised if we have a cop. certainly nothing that we can rely on to tell us who's scum. i'm surprised this is a controversial take.

I don't feel like reiterating myself with Tom more. I don't like how Tom has played D2, evidenced by me steadily putting him higher and higher on my list of preferred lynches. But I don't feel strongly that his play is out of the boundaries of what a new player might do as town.

I also don't feel that anyone's play is strongly out of the boundaries of what they might do as town! But Tom is basically the path of least resistance. meh. the question is, is Tom actually the scummiest or the easiest person to lynch given that he's posting/trying the least (outside of banana)?

[raikaria]

So what do you think happens if Tom isn't scum rai?

If Tom isn't scum it's not a major loss for Town.

It looks fairly bad for me of course, seeing as I'm one of the people most on the 'Tom should be lynched' wagon. I still need to re-read a fair bit to make up my mind but as I've said before; Yurself isn't exactly a shining beacon of towniness. Going with my current opinions; he's my 2nd priority. He does look slightly better Day 2, while I think Day2 Tom looks worse than Day1 Tom. Hence why my lynch priority has swapped.

I also want to specifically re-read Polaris' interaction and Serela's. But as I've said; I'm waiting for tomorrow for this.

[Polaris]

i think it's cute that bbm thinks he's given up but he keeps slipping up and using capital letters, thus exposing that he's actually still trying

[Fabloo]

I know your argument made rai. Lynch the person who is the scummiest. We kinda did that last phase though and it ended up being wrong. Is tom's behavior not eerily similar to meow56 as well? I don't know. I just hate the idea if he's town and then we just repeat the same mistake.

[Fabloo]

When it comes to Daiya if we're wrong then there was a good amount of people who were wrong as well. There is something to track in terms of how people have read him too. It just makes the most sense to me. This is not lynching on the basis of a formulative what-if too. I generally just think Daiya sticks out the most to me and I think his behavior is scummy.

[NekoNekoRex]

Haven't read.

Skimmed all the posts to find one from Tom and found nothing.

Putting him near the top of my "please delet" list, kid gloves are off.

In depth reread will probably have to still wait.

Read disquieted posts. A lot of walls but votes and reads are against the low volume posters still, so not impressed

[Serela]

OK so like, I'm still working full time even though pandemic lockdown, but my job is basically 100% dead with almost nothing to do
so it's not much different from sitting at home all day, which I also do

so basically I'm drunk.

Let'S MAKE A PST BEFORE I GET DRUNKER

Smartbomb's posting has definitely -improved-. He provided a reads wall. This still doesn't make up for being underwhelming until looking like the de facto lynch of the day, but it's still better. I do want to lynch still, but I'm open to other options. Tom is... hmm. It's awkward. Tom's activity today is looking supremely scummy to be quite fair. He's... been obscenely lurky, and when he posts it's tiny votepark blips, or a vote chart with no actual conclusions drawn AKA scum can provide info with no analysis pretty easily. There's really no way to say this doesn't look very scummy. I'd be up for lynching this. It's unfortunate though because if it doesn't flip scum (and, being his first game, anything is possible) it doesn't help us a lot? But, Raikaria is still right, this is scummy and anti-town behavior and giving it a pass really isn't a helpful thing. The slot does need lynching and it's pretty liable to flip scum at this point

oh no the alcohol is kciking in more give me a minute

[Serela]

oh no i keep getting distracte dand then cliking back to this tab and being like 'why was i on this post? i don't remeber"

[Polaris]

ok, unless serela is a criminal mastermind, drunk serela is a towntell because he'd never post while drunk as scum

[Serela]

ok while I remember

daiya being not-a-newbie (which honestly I only knew once they said it today) actually amkes the lurky scumminess worse

i thought they were improving comign into today when they started posting but it hasn't continued

this is also pretty lynchable

i'd probably rather do this than tom for likelihood of flipping scum compared to first-game-tom but they do both need to be lynche honestly

hi polly <3

[Polaris]

but serela you should keep posting just in case you scumslip lmao

[Serela]

pbbtttttt

i mean you can keep asking me questions

it's gotten hard to concentrate enough to actually like... rereading pages

i literally swap out to respond a message from a cute guy and forget whaw ti was doing in mafia so

[Polaris]

what does your drunk mind think about me

maybe we can draw out the opinions you've been burying deep within yourself