Author Topic: Neo DEFCON Mafia (DEFCON 1, Phase 1) (Read 624760 times)

Zoomy Tsugumi · « **Reply #720 on:** June 12, 2020, 02:25:40 PM »

The hard thing about trying to break this setup is all the numbers and configurations I'm coming up with rely on nukers nuking people but the nukers themselves are not unlikely to be anti-town.

Zoomy Tsugumi · « **Reply #721 on:** June 12, 2020, 02:37:10 PM »

From my PoV and running with the idea that Raik is conf town that means one of Serela or Daiya is anti-town for sure. Out of the 4 players left that aren't me or Raik, 2 are claimed to be nukers and there's a Doc left in the mix, if the Doc is conf town that means it's between the last unclaimed player and both nukers.
But then we'd need the nukers to nuke each other, the Doc to claim and if the last unclaimed person is the final remaining scum then they just get lynched tomorrow.

Zoomy Tsugumi · « **Reply #722 on:** June 12, 2020, 02:39:22 PM »

But then how do you convince anti-town players to advance a town wincon at the cost of their lives? lol
I guess if one of Serela/Daiya is town you should nuke the other, at worst you get venge nuked but then the rest of the game is solveable.

Zoomy Tsugumi · « **Reply #723 on:** June 12, 2020, 02:39:59 PM »

God I hope nucleus flips SK so that this all ends up being moot lol

Bardiche · « **Reply #724 on:** June 12, 2020, 03:05:36 PM »

I do not have a missile silo set to offensive mode, because I do not trust any of you to be responsible with the nuclear button.

Serela · « **Reply #725 on:** June 12, 2020, 03:38:33 PM »

1. Serela - Offensive Silo
2. Daiya - Submarine
5. waffles - ???? (imminent nuke)
6. Dormio - Offensive Silo (cop guilty?)
7. Yaersulf - Cop? (Imminent nuke)
8. Bardiche - ????? (not offens.silo)
9. Meow56 - ?????
10. Raikaria - ????? (not mafia)
11. Zoomy - ?????

And Tsugumi it's definitely not safe to assume Raikaria isn't SK :U

Serela · « **Reply #726 on:** June 12, 2020, 03:44:31 PM »

actually we can extrapolate further

1. Serela - Offensive Silo
2. Daiya - Submarine
8. Bardiche - ????? (not offens.silo)
9. Meow56 - ?????
10. Raikaria - ????? (not mafia)
11. Zoomy - ????? (not doc)

let's assume, for the moment, that waffles is not the SK, yaer flips cop, and dormio dies imminently through some means or another, and waffles surely isn't the doc because he'd have claimed so by now to avoid being nuked to death

bard/meow/rai basically has to be the doc unless someone is currently misplaying (scum should be able to PoE this pretty easily so may as well say it so we can work easier)

we do still have two nukes available

and the doc is almost certainly not the SK (if they really decided to go all in on ridiculous gambits, then uh, lmao ok hope that works out for you b/c it might)

Daiya · « **Reply #727 on:** June 12, 2020, 03:46:58 PM »

raik also confirmed that the fighter's in the game, iirc. should be true regardless of his alignment

Daiya · « **Reply #728 on:** June 12, 2020, 03:53:04 PM »

i'm curious as to why you ended up with a silo though, serela. you claimed that you wanted to snag the sub to deprive the scumteam of it, but shouldn't there have been anything else worth taking after that?

Serela · « **Reply #729 on:** June 12, 2020, 03:56:12 PM »

1. Serela - Offensive Silo
2. Daiya - Submarine
8. Bardiche - ????? (not offens.silo)
9. Meow56 - ?????
10. Raikaria - ????? (not mafia)
11. Zoomy - ????? (not doc)

Confirmed Roles:Rolecop, Doctor (conf town)

maybe we just lynch dormio assuming things proceed as expected and see who dies overnight before we make further decisions. The SK or scum could both either be nk'd? Hmm. Can town even realistically win a 4p lylo if the scum and SK are both still alive though? It's pretty hard to tell where to go from here.

Quote from: Daiya on June 12, 2020, 03:53:04 PM

i'm curious as to why you ended up with a silo though, serela. you claimed that you wanted to snag the sub to deprive the scumteam of it, but shouldn't there have been anything else worth taking after that?

I wanted to kill people so my submission list was literally submarine -> missile silo LMAO

vig is a very satisfying role to have ok, and I personally think my scumdar is pretty good but most people would argue my cases are not amazingly convincing a lot of the time (it's been different the last few games because they've just been low hanging fruit cases b/c there's been lots of lurking)
also in the first defcon I fired on d3 and hit the scumteam member who had the least overall suspicion

Serela · « **Reply #730 on:** June 12, 2020, 03:58:26 PM »

also waffles literally fired a nuke so I guess he's not a ?????

Serela · « **Reply #731 on:** June 12, 2020, 04:03:09 PM »

I wonder how much farther we can narrow down the scum. It'd be worth firing a couple more nukes if we could be almost certain of hitting the mafia, and potentially hitting the SK otherwise.

1. Serela - Offensive Silo
2. Daiya - Submarine
8. Bardiche - ????? (not offens.silo)
9. Meow56 - ?????
10. Raikaria - ????? (not mafia)
11. Zoomy - ????? (not doc)

If the doc is Bard or Meow (although they probably shouldn't claim unless we do definitively decide it's worth firing more nukes today) then the list goes down to...

1. Serela - Offensive Silo
2. Daiya - Submarine
9. Bard/Meow56 - ?????
11. Zoomy - ????? (not doc)

And if one of the 5 people on this list was the doc target (this might sound like a stretch but is there someone in this game that practically everyone except dormio agreed was town HMMM I THINK THERE WAS)... we're down to Three Slots that surely must contain the last mafia member. And from my PoV at least there'd be only T W O slots left and we can still use Conventional Scumhunting after that so at least for me it'd sound PRETTY worth firing my nuke

Yaersulf · « **Reply #732 on:** June 12, 2020, 04:03:52 PM »

Serela are you happy with me being nuked?

Serela · « **Reply #733 on:** June 12, 2020, 04:11:55 PM »

Well, no one's counterclaimed as cop which is in your favor, but you could still realistically be lying SK/scum trying to get the nuke called off them, unless someone can claim they had cop higher on their role submission list than what they got

scum could also realistically have stolen cop from town just so town doesn't have it; it's even mildly useful for scum because they can hunt for the SK with it, and combined with the utility of removing it from town it'd sound like a reasonable gambit to go for

so, basically, i can't find a good reason to CLEAR you

that being said, i wonder if it'd be better for our numbers game if the nuke was called off in exchange for me or daiya being able to easier nuke someone else?

Yaersulf · « **Reply #734 on:** June 12, 2020, 04:16:00 PM »

Alright, I'm not giving Dormio any outs.

I fully believe in town to make my sacrifice mean something, keep an eye on Bard for me.

##I do not wish to die a painful radioactive death

'Murica o7

Serela · « **Reply #735 on:** June 12, 2020, 04:28:57 PM »

i was about to post that considering the somewhat dire situation we're in, it's probably best if we try to get waffles to call it off, me or daiya nukes dormio, and after dormio flips we can throw a nuke at yaer depending on the flip and pray for the best but if dormio was actually scum we should probably err on the side of clearing yaer

because even if waffles called off his nuke we still have -multiple- more nukes to use so it's not like we couldn't still easily nuke yaer after if necessary

but uh

it's a little late for that now ;_;

Serela · « **Reply #736 on:** June 12, 2020, 04:32:24 PM »

mmmmmmmmm

i guess it's a pretty good scum gambit still so this is fine...? yaer gets nuked, tries to get it called off by claiming cop (which one of the scum could realistically be, making it safe), claims his scumbuddy so whichever of them ends up getting killed first the other is cleared, and the doc excuses why they don't get nightkilled

raikaria · « **Reply #737 on:** June 12, 2020, 05:25:01 PM »

I have returned.

Wow things escalated quickly.

Quote from: Serela on June 12, 2020, 04:03:09 PM

I wonder how much farther we can narrow down the scum. It'd be worth firing a couple more nukes if we could be almost certain of hitting the mafia, and potentially hitting the SK otherwise.

1. Serela - Offensive Silo
2. Daiya - Submarine
8. Bardiche - ????? (not offens.silo)
9. Meow56 - ?????
10. Raikaria - ????? (not mafia)
11. Zoomy - ????? (not doc)

If the doc is Bard or Meow (although they probably shouldn't claim unless we do definitively decide it's worth firing more nukes today) then the list goes down to...

1. Serela - Offensive Silo
2. Daiya - Submarine
9. Bard/Meow56 - ?????
11. Zoomy - ????? (not doc)

And if one of the 5 people on this list was the doc target (this might sound like a stretch but is there someone in this game that practically everyone except dormio agreed was town HMMM I THINK THERE WAS)... we're down to Three Slots that surely must contain the last mafia member. And from my PoV at least there'd be only T W O slots left and we can still use Conventional Scumhunting after that so at least for me it'd sound PRETTY worth firing my nuke

I am amazed that the wafflemaster is doing so well. Although I'm not sure where I vanished on these lists since while I have a Not Russia I'm not clear of being NK.

Although I'm not NK.

Also it seems Dormio is scum and we're lynching him but I seriously don't know the votals right now and don't want to hammer, especially with Yaer self-confirming his role. I'd rather wait for the flip to 100% hammer. Just to be 100% safe.

I guess this brings up the question of who are Dormio's likely scumbuddies. Looking at the Zeep wagon and 1v1 might be a pretty good idea.

Serela · « **Reply #738 on:** June 12, 2020, 05:35:25 PM »

Literally anyone except probably the doc can absolutely be North Korea, so I was just seeing how far we can narrow down who the last -mafia- would be.

And, in an ideal world, it goes down to 3 people, at least two of which possess a nuke.

And yeah, deep analysis would be cool but I do want some actual flips before i bother looking into it -that- hard.

Daiya · « **Reply #739 on:** June 12, 2020, 06:03:21 PM »

there is the fact that the sk killed beru. honestly wouldn't be surprised if it really is nucleus

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #740 on:** June 12, 2020, 06:08:15 PM »

☢ In-Game Event ☢
DEFCON 1

Yaersulf, American Espionage has committed suicide.

Serela · « **Reply #741 on:** June 12, 2020, 06:13:20 PM »

Quote from: Daiya on June 12, 2020, 06:03:21 PM

there is the fact that the sk killed beru. honestly wouldn't be surprised if it really is nucleus

tbh i've been thinking that too but there's already an incoming nuke so that'll solve itself soon enough

raikaria · « **Reply #742 on:** June 12, 2020, 06:13:40 PM »

Requesting votecount

Serela · « **Reply #743 on:** June 12, 2020, 06:14:04 PM »

also dormio is basically confirmed scum, so, at this point we're just waiting on waffles' flip and figuring out exactly how we want to use the rest of our nukes in this rather precarious gamestate

Serela · « **Reply #744 on:** June 12, 2020, 06:15:26 PM »

oh right, and analyzing dormio/votecounts... d1 might be interesting to look at too since we have -two- flipped scum but beru still barely existed and d1 wasn't very contested zzzzzz

i'm about to leave for work, i'll be back later

NekoNekoRex · « **Reply #745 on:** June 12, 2020, 06:18:28 PM »

DEFCON 1, Lynch Phase
Vote Count Quebec

Dormio (2) - Zoomy Tsugumi, NucleusWaffles, ~~Serela~~
Zoomy Tsugumi (1) - ~~Dormio~~, Dormio
Bardiche (0) - ~~Serela~~
NucleusWaffles (0) -
Serela (0) -
Raikaria (0) -
meow56 (0) -
Daiya (0) -
Yaersulf (X) - Zoomy Tsugumi, Dormio

Not Voting (5) - meow56, Daiya, Raikaria, Bardiche, Serela

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to Lynch.

Timers:
End of Phase - [ Expired ]
☢NucleusWaffles☢ - [ Expired ]
~~☢Yaersulf☢ - [ Expired ]~~

raikaria · « **Reply #746 on:** June 12, 2020, 07:53:53 PM »

Quote from: Serela on June 12, 2020, 06:14:04 PM

also dormio is basically confirmed scum, so, at this point we're just waiting on waffles' flip and figuring out exactly how we want to use the rest of our nukes in this rather precarious gamestate

He *is* confirmed scum, unless Yaersulf is intentionally playing against Town wincon.

NuclearWafflesAlt · « **Reply #747 on:** June 12, 2020, 09:19:12 PM »

Ah strawberries, I vigged the cop and the person nuking me is scum.

This is a terrible mistake. Raikaria, as the confirmed town I will just sheep you until I inevitably dies, consider me a backdrop doublevoter and I will now silence myself completely because of the ambiguity surrounding my status.

Dormio Ergo Sum · « **Reply #748 on:** June 12, 2020, 09:22:06 PM »

nzjiz zfvnu fmwhm oqmor vrnvj yinjd tqkez nqkgu xxnxu uutxz nmhio uuewm mezbq saakb jnzhv jrqnw fgpfw nkrdq xxkwo mxngi skuwd qudyr pighm knzbb yrqgb fwghd pomuz zrbqw fpbq

NuclearWafflesAlt · « **Reply #749 on:** June 12, 2020, 09:23:48 PM »

Basically, what I am saying is because of the fact we have a very good cop clear (on Raikaria, very experienced town player) and the fact I am involved in a scum gambit and only I myself know with full certainty I am just going to flip missle silo, I will delegate responsibility of my life to Raikaria now.

If Raikaria orders me to suicide I will do so, but I don't entirely want to townclear Serela yet, the ED1 beru -> Abu shift was clearly scumsided, and the ED2 zwerdijib VS Yaersulf scuffle clearly meritted more attention.

I also think the SK is Bard, Bard hates lurkers with a passion and actively punishes bad play as a big meta tell, if the vote goes there I will be really happy.