Ys Mafia (Current Phase: Game Over!)

[Fabloo]

If Daiya were to just come in here. Be honest and say something along the lines of "sorry. My read wasn't that strong after all. I don't know what to do with all this noise around me. The amount of posting has intimidated me." I would be willing to accept that.

There's the underlying factor. Daiya isn't really doing that. He's avoiding confrontation. Is this something he'd do as town?

[sb]

There was a game within the last... two weeks? Maybe three? Where Daiya played pretty similarly and got lynched without defending himself as town, so I'm hesitant. I wouldn't say that I'm comfortably townreading the slot (I'm not townreading him in general, really) but I think unvoting smartbomb when he did makes him look much better. I don't think Daiya had a well thought out backup case to push or uh, he would've used it. I think he looks lost for sure but it could be town too. This game is hard.

[sb]

Actually, were they voting them there? I'm kinda confused after reading their ISO.

[Fabloo]

I got the name wrong. He actually moved over to Polaris. I think what I said is still relevant however. Polaris (your slot) has been here long enough and frequent enough to confront him further. Then he just unvoted.

[NekoNekoRex]

SB figured out the hunch lets go Serela wagon

[Fabloo]

##Vote: Serela

Yeah let's go.

[sb]

Okay yeah I somehow misread votals first time through. Hm. Disregard previous point, but I kinda think he's looking a bit better now, for different reasons.

I think Daiya is still approaching the game in the way I'd expect them to do as town based on previous experience (the game I just mentioned):
-Voting Polly for going after a slot they saw as an easy inactive when that was what I did to him last game (I was scum)
-Thinking gambits are more likely to come from town, because a townie fakeclaimed PR at the start of that game as VT
-He even overly brings up "this is what happened to me" with the meow lynch after failing to push the counterwagon

None of this pushes Daiya into firm-town territory but it's like... I can see town!Daiya saying all of these things, especially with how fresh the game would be in his mind.

The weirdest part of his ISO is that I'm not sure why he unvoted my slot (he said Disquieted looked better and then unvoted, which is where my confusion came from) and I'd kinda like an explanation there.

[BigBangMeteor]

Yeah Daiya was voting Polaris not Smartbomb, so I don't feel that the unvote is particularly relevant from like a survival perspective. The unvote kind of feeds into my feeling that his votes/unvotes seem more in line with town consensus than his genuine feelings? Maybe he forgot who he was even voting? Idk why he would unvote polaris but speak about smartbomb.

It also seems fake to me that after a D1 where he spent most of the time voting Tom and then picking consolidation votes that he came in D2 saying "ok I want to look at Serela/Disquieted/Polaris" today. Like... Why?

I agree with the analysis of his ed1 yaersulf townread but don't feel like him apologizing to meow is very relevant.

The point about serela seeming very in the moment is good I guess. I did think the nucleus vote felt weird and very reactionary. But also seems like... too obvious to be scum?

[BigBangMeteor]

Ftr @fabloo a consensus lynch is unlikely, unnecessary, and kinda unhelpful too.

A lynch that ISN'T consensus is actually more useful than a consensus lynch. If a lynch is consensus that means it's either a mislynch or scum bussed and though the latter is still good it's not super helpful wrt interactions. A non-consensus lynch is more useful because it tells you who argued for it/against it though ofc that doesn't correlate exactly to scum/town either.

[Fabloo]

I'm voting Serela hoping it starts people to do the same. I guess I'm just legitimately worried that I'll have to compromise on a lynch I don't really want.

[NekoNekoRex]

But also seems like... too obvious to be scum?

this is scum serela in a nutshell

[sb]

If it walks like talks like scum and votes like scum, it's probably scum.

[sb]

If it talks like scum and votes like scum, it's probably scum.

I can't type.

[Conqueror]

Votecount
NucleusWaffles (4): Yaersulf, PX, Serela, raikaria
Serela (3): NekoNekoRex, sb, Fabloo
Disquieted (2): banana spritzee, Tom
Daiya (1): BigBangMeteor
raikaria (1): NucleusWaffles
sb (0):
Yaersulf (0):
Tom (0):
NekoNekoRex (0):
BigBangMeteor (0):
banana spritzee (0):
Fabloo (0):
PX (0):

There are currently 2 male characters and 10 female characters in the game.
With 13 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch!
Not voting: Daiya, Disquieted

Time until day phase ends: [ Expired ]

[Serela]

ok i've woken up after night shift

ho boy this is a lot to wake up to

uh gimme a minute to process all of this

[Serela]

I think Waffles is scum, but it's incredibly difficult to form a case on this because even when I seriously try to read and reread posts like #1268 , my brain just starts melting. It's hard to parse what half of these sentences even mean, I don't just mean the logic within them. Still, his scum cases seem to be based purely off light role speculation, which is... kind of ridiculous. Instead of trying to pay attention to whether someone's acting town or scummy or anything like that, he's just declaring power role discussion as a "scumslip" and voting over it.

The most powerful point against waffles is easily that he says he targetted Daiya with his role on n1, yet he had proceeded to make an early D2 reads post saying he forget Daiya exists. This doesn't make sense, and not in the newbie flailing kind of way, but in the "this night action sounds like a flat-out lie" kind of way with evidence to support as much.

I think he started requesting genders at D1 start in reckless newbie fashion because the scumteam probably has some kind of role that interacts with genders. God knows what his actual role is. Universal Backup is fine, not working on certain characters isn't weird, but he has to target them on the night that they're nightkilled? This is the swingiest backup ever and almost only works if they're forced to claim while run up for a lynch and get nk'd the next night. It also feels bad on balance level because in the other organic situation, where they get a result worth claiming and claim their scum guilty/town clear/etc, scum nks the claimed PR as revenge but it's still alive, which is... cruel? At least with a normal univ. backup this kind of stuff is expected, this backup only reliably works in cases where the scum is clearly nightkilling a publically outted town PR which is probably the least fair place for a backup to exist.

OK, that got overly into rolespec, but my point is, this is a weird restriction on a normally standard role that makes it so weak and swingy that I don't even, not to mention it already doesn't work on the town prs that have currently flipped ontop of that. This is still rolespec, but I'm using it to SUPPORT the far more slam-dunk reason like the Daiya night action seems to be a lie and how he doesn't seem to be scumhunting, just finding excuses to vote people for being scum. Vote waffles for lynchesident 2020

ok now I need to uh, look harder at the fact that I have a wagon on me suddenly POLLY WHY DID YOU LEAVE ME WITH THIS MONSTER

[Serela]

didn't like my fabloo vote (fair enough), zwerd got nightkilled (there's nothing I can say about this :C)

[about serela's disquietedbomb case]
Serela, hasn’t this case been used against you for like, years? With you often flipping town?

Look, explaining the intricacies of your complicated opinions about people is fine, but the problem is smartbomb literally never went -anywhere- all of day one. He just kind of flailed around and then laid on the floor uselessly with absolutely no priorities or desired targets!!

I don't really know how to respond to most of the rest, it's 'serela doesn't feel as much like serela this game' which is, uhm :S I'm accused of gotcha votes but I don't feel like that's what fabloo was (I mean, sure, maybe the initial empty unvote, but it developed from there!!) and I was trying to vote daiya/disquietedbomb inbetween there too ok!!

[Daiya]

So let's talk about a few pieces of confidence that I have so we can get things in perspective.

NNR is town. I'm going to ignore everything he's doing and focusing on the fact that he really thinks I'm pushing him because of his character. It means he cares about his character in a towny manner, and I don't want to spend more than the necessary time on this.

Raikaria is probably town for a similar virtue that he doesn't actually know how alignments are going to be set in this game. Honestly, I don't know either, and maybe the good guys are town or whatever. Who knows. But Rai doesn't really know. So let's stop here before going into the mess that is people's posts and reads.

Then we have people who have posted stuff. I'm still getting townvibes off BBM right now, how he's talking sounds like he's being genuine and he is struggling and if I'm being snowed, that's on me. I'll sort this out later.

Then we have Tom. Now I can plot what he's doing but he's really taken a very lazy seat in this game and I can plot it out from a town perspective but it is significantly worse than yesterday, he's posted graphs and naked voted people and that's it. This may be because he got basically made fun of on Day 1 as town, instead of being mafia and phoning it in. He needs to improve.

There's also this post:
Which is, uh incredibly problematic. How this is problematic is best left up as an exercise to the reader.

We have Banana Spritzee who I don't really trust with his entrance, not going to lie. Bardiche was very very town, but Banana Spritzee is playing the AWOL card and not caring what's going on and I refuse to let that sort of behaviour fly, especially since that's also what he does as scum. It's nonsense. He's also got some weird balance of knowing what's going on but trying to pretend he doesn't care? It's hard to describe, call tomorrow.

Neither player has lost enough towncred to be a consideration for me right now. I will lynch Banana Spritzee cause if he doesn't play games I can be more than irritable regardless of how I feel about Bardiche. But let's move on, this is me complaining, either they do something or they won't and I'll complain regardless.

Yaersulf is someone I'm surprised isn't getting more attention right now and it's really adding to this strange state that Fabloo is talking about. Like, I'm not against it, cause Yaersulf's reaction to Fabloo's secret stuff is very townie and makes sense cause you don't get upset at a supposed cop claiming you yourself are guilty unless you're town, right? That's how that ended up. But that's just been accepted as kosher. And I guess I'll just use this as a thought about how scum don't really feel like taking initiative this game. It's a very out there read that involves a lot of the circumstances in this game but yeah. I don't think a mislynch is being pushed by scum, they're just letting town push other town and not even trying to open up other options. Whether that's sheeping other cases or just not having the thread presence, who knows. Maybe that might be a good observation for other people.

I don't feel like Serela is scum, but I can't exactly say Serela is town. If Polaris is assessing Serela's scum meta properly, well... meh. This is kind of a locked door for me and I really don't know how to judge him, and quite honestly I'm running out of scumreads, so he'll reside here until I think more about either Banana Spritzee or Tom.

We have Polaris, who I will leave in this category because this is the Polaris category. That is all.

And so that leaves a few people left. I feel like properly examining Daiya makes sense once everyone's given more than lipservice to him, so that'll wait. I have further comments on him that I need to nail down looking at him again though.

And I still don't know what to make of NucleusWaffles. It's not the "man this guy is weird" category. It's something else. When someone doesn't consider himself a town PR (assumedly cause he says he's weak, but how does he even have a judge of that? This is his first game!), when someone doesn't die on N1 - like say the mafia is dodging a doc. Zwerdjib's a pretty natural doc dodge for a multitude of reasons, but why wouldn't you hit the weakest town PR? If zwerdjib wasn't the tracker the night would've been questionable.

Every post he makes is word salad yes, but if you actually try and read his posts... nothing of consequence is really said. I don't need a summary of the game, I need thoughts on the game. Maybe that's just his thing. I have doubts.

This isn't even getting into the role part of him. That's something I don't want to push too much on my own for obvious reasons. But I have problems with that as well. If he's a flavourcop, why doesn't he just say what his results are? That's only one of the many questions that I'd like to ask but won't.

this was the reason i unvoted pol pol (rip). it made me consider want to try reconsidering his perceived lack of substance from a confused town angle, because i this gamestate really is about as strange as he says. i was stuck in analysis paralysis about it for a good while, but at the end of the day i don't think he shapes up as well as, say BBM or raik (yes, i believe that they are most likely town), who are probably just as confused, but still seem to have a more active scumhunting approach than him. however, with sb subbing in this isn't an avenue i want to go down anymore. need to prioritize other reads and approach his slot with a fresh mind next phase if it isn't my turn to die.

as for why this made me feel better about disq, my main issue with him was that he seemed a little too focused on me, tying into the reason i singled out pol/serela/disq in the first place. 

my line of thinking was that if d1's meow yaer wagons really were town/town as i suspect, then the failed vote attempts on me puts the scum team at an advantage, essentially setting up a low-hanging fruit to draw discussion and hide behind for the next phase, while also avoiding responsibility for settling on either of the wsgons. hence why i wanted to examine which pushes on me felt the least authentic. so seeing a more comprehensive read list from disq reminded me that "hey, he does care about other people".

[Serela]

daiya

we are less than six hours from deadline

WHO DO YOU WANT TO LYNCH

[raikaria]

daiya

we are less than six hours from deadline

WHO DO YOU WANT TO LYNCH

Speaking of this; I'm probably only gonna be awake for 2~3 more hours.

[Serela]

five hours *sobs*

[NekoNekoRex]

Id rather have a Serela lynch than another newbie lynch on the ~claimed power role~ that might not even be interpreting it right

[sb]

I see wallposts and feel my will to post slipping... away...

[Serela]

I see wallposts and feel my will to post slipping... away...

from what I can tell, most of the walls are just newbies quoting entire huge posts without shortening it to the important bits, and then writing two sentences under it

my post wasn't -that- long... :C

[sb]

I think Waffles is scum, but it's incredibly difficult to form a case on this because even when I seriously try to read and reread posts like #1268 , my brain just starts melting.

I understand the scumteam is reasonably confused, which is the effect I had hoped to achieve

He boomed you Serela. Just admit it now so we can all stop this and go home.

[Serela]

:C

[sb]

I think Waffles is scum, but it's incredibly difficult to form a case on this because even when I seriously try to read and reread posts like #1268 , my brain just starts melting. It's hard to parse what half of these sentences even mean, I don't just mean the logic within them. Still, his scum cases seem to be based purely off light role speculation, which is... kind of ridiculous. Instead of trying to pay attention to whether someone's acting town or scummy or anything like that, he's just declaring power role discussion as a "scumslip" and voting over it.

The most powerful point against waffles is easily that he says he targetted Daiya with his role on n1, yet he had proceeded to make an early D2 reads post saying he forget Daiya exists. This doesn't make sense, and not in the newbie flailing kind of way, but in the "this night action sounds like a flat-out lie" kind of way with evidence to support as much.

I think he started requesting genders at D1 start in reckless newbie fashion because the scumteam probably has some kind of role that interacts with genders. God knows what his actual role is. Universal Backup is fine, not working on certain characters isn't weird, but he has to target them on the night that they're nightkilled? This is the swingiest backup ever and almost only works if they're forced to claim while run up for a lynch and get nk'd the next night. It also feels bad on balance level because in the other organic situation, where they get a result worth claiming and claim their scum guilty/town clear/etc, scum nks the claimed PR as revenge but it's still alive, which is... cruel? At least with a normal univ. backup this kind of stuff is expected, this backup only reliably works in cases where the scum is clearly nightkilling a publically outted town PR which is probably the least fair place for a backup to exist.

OK, that got overly into rolespec, but my point is, this is a weird restriction on a normally standard role that makes it so weak and swingy that I don't even, not to mention it already doesn't work on the town prs that have currently flipped ontop of that. This is still rolespec, but I'm using it to SUPPORT the far more slam-dunk reason like the Daiya night action seems to be a lie and how he doesn't seem to be scumhunting, just finding excuses to vote people for being scum. Vote waffles for lynchesident 2020

ok now I need to uh, look harder at the fact that I have a wagon on me suddenly POLLY WHY DID YOU LEAVE ME WITH THIS MONSTER

Okay I did you a solid and tried to read the post. It's a bit wack, yeah, but it's consistent with their earlier vote on raikaria and the other members of their suspected scumteam. I can't say I truly hate it because that post just made me think the guy was insane town, or maybe third party at worst. Do you think this guy is being coached? I can't see it, personally, but there's also a method to his madness because his reads seem consistent. I think he actually believes in them and that doesn't feel like scum to me?

I do agree with your point on not noticing Daiya being weird, but I can also see it as "they decided to target Daiya, then forgot because Daiya didn't post much D2". I feel like it's a small thing to latch onto and the kinda "slip" that misses more often than it hits. If I'm wrong sorry but I don't see it atm.

The rest of the case feels more like "hey what if he did this" but if we're really basing cases around the scumteam asking townies for their asl idk what to say. What stops him from having this role regardless of alignment? Dormio is a fire trucking weird host dude. He gave Skypal a VT in a role madness game. Self-Reviving Serial Killer Lovers. I'm not brave enough to say "haha yeah this definitely couldn't exist" because I don't have the confidence in that at all.

What do you mean "MONSTER"? You're breaking my heart, Serela.

[sb]

didn't like my fabloo vote (fair enough), zwerd got nightkilled (there's nothing I can say about this :C)
Look, explaining the intricacies of your complicated opinions about people is fine, but the problem is smartbomb literally never went -anywhere- all of day one. He just kind of flailed around and then laid on the floor uselessly with absolutely no priorities or desired targets!!

I don't really know how to respond to most of the rest, it's 'serela doesn't feel as much like serela this game' which is, uhm :S I'm accused of gotcha votes but I don't feel like that's what fabloo was (I mean, sure, maybe the initial empty unvote, but it developed from there!!) and I was trying to vote daiya/disquietedbomb inbetween there too ok!!

That's fair, it's... just weird hearing it from you. Like I'd expected you of all people to have been more wary of it. It's not *just* that you don't feel like Serela, it's that I haven't felt like you've really believed in your cases or dug deep to try and figure someone out, it's just more jarring based on the previous games. You can say "but I did X Y and Z" and sure, but I read the posts and just wasn't feeling it like town.

[sb]

Daiya's response to me is okay. I don't hate it.

@Daiya if you had to lynch three people today, who would they be?

[raikaria]

OK so I'm only really gonna be around another hour.

If someone wants to tl;dr the case on Serela; since it's kinda scattered and I'm not too sure on it. A lot of it from what I've gathered is Serela being waffley which is normal for Serela.

I get the main Waffle wagon reasons, I'm one of the ones pushing it after all. But it's nearing consolidation time. Serela wagoners, I simply ask for you to convince me why I should vote Serela over Waffle. I've explained my Waffle case as much as I think I can in my prior posts, I can't really throw much else to convince you guys of that; but I think in general there should be some actual discussion both ways on the Serela wagon.