Author Topic: Neo Forum Mafia - Game Over  (Read 1318526 times)

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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1770 on: March 14, 2020, 08:42:57 PM »
Refa done something towny that I forgot but I remember noticing it did I write it down before I think I did

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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1771 on: March 14, 2020, 08:43:34 PM »
i have realized a pattern

a very simple, but possibly important pattern

we have not focused on eod vote counts/counterwagons.

Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1772 on: March 14, 2020, 08:44:00 PM »
LOL zeep

Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1773 on: March 14, 2020, 08:44:34 PM »
i have realized a pattern

a very simple, but possibly important pattern

we have not focused on eod vote counts/counterwagons.

We have exclusively flipped town and exclusively voted town unless raik is scum so that is not helpful

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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1774 on: March 14, 2020, 08:45:02 PM »
i have realized a pattern

a very simple, but possibly important pattern

we have not focused on eod vote counts/counterwagons.

this is mostly for me honestly. my 2nd most reliable method behind poe is find counterwagon > kill counterwagon > win game

Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1775 on: March 14, 2020, 08:45:59 PM »
this is mostly for me honestly. my 2nd most reliable method behind poe is find counterwagon > kill counterwagon > win game

What

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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1776 on: March 14, 2020, 08:46:25 PM »
What

how do you think vigilante games on mu go

Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1777 on: March 14, 2020, 08:46:42 PM »
Who did smartbomb sub in for his intro was towny it was refa right?

Conqueror

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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1778 on: March 14, 2020, 08:47:47 PM »
Sorry conqy boy you are 0/3
very funny. but i'll bite because i wanted to ask you about your eod anyway since what you were saying didn't seem to make sense with what you were supposedly thinking at the time. or at the very least, it felt off.

Raik because me claiming it does not help town at all in your decision, knowing im vt will not change a lynch

All it does is inform scum that I am not pr so my claim was anti town but I was forced to do it
near the end of the day you said you were increasingly sure shadoweh was mafia, that her team was hard pushing you, and that you were going to be lynched for it. so in other words you were about to be dead and flipped anyway so scum knowing you were not pr would have been a moot point. the people your claim would have helped most were town who were deciding between the wagons. what was the point of delaying? the vt claim actually made me want to lynch you more at the time because in retrospect it looked like you were baiting people to think you were a pr and hammer the shadoweh wagon to "prevent you from claiming". that or stalling and trying to think of a claim before deciding not to go with one. my thoughts are pretty muddled on this so i wanted to hear it from you first.

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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1779 on: March 14, 2020, 08:48:12 PM »
Who did smartbomb sub in for his intro was towny it was refa right?

yes, it was refa

Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1780 on: March 14, 2020, 08:48:35 PM »
how do you think vigilante games on mu go

Poorly?

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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1781 on: March 14, 2020, 08:49:51 PM »
Poorly?

mmmmmmmmmmm. i think i have a 66% wr as vig. unsure though. and its all from shooting counterwagons

66% chance to kill scum by just hitting the counterwagon is a chance ill take tbh

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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1782 on: March 14, 2020, 08:50:41 PM »
I could direct this question specifically at (ActionDan) and it wouldn't matter because (ActionDan) would probably literally never see it. Just like how (ActionDan) probably hasn't bothered to even look at 95% of the posts in this thread.
it's funny how this is probably correct regardless of dan's alignment. sometimes i wish motk had a way you could ping people in thread and they could get a notification.

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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1783 on: March 14, 2020, 08:52:00 PM »
// It's definitely correct given that Dan's alignment is: piece of shit

Conqueror

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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1784 on: March 14, 2020, 08:55:23 PM »
let's not do this, we don't want to get notv'd

Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1785 on: March 14, 2020, 08:55:57 PM »
Conq the power role makes me look bad after I claim, I agree. Was I trying to look like rp? Yes, for two reasons:

It makes me less likely to get lynched, this is pro town not just pro survivability. I know shaodweh is not town pr because she has claimed by, and I believe she is mafia. Of course it is pro town to have her lynched over me, who I know is town. My scum read getting lynched is always better than me getting lynched, that's a fact.

Claiming VT does not help town make its decision in a way that is pro it's wincon. This is because I am not pr. Deciding between two vts doesn't help town, because you are both vt it doesn't change the decision. So me claoming does not effect the lynch. I agree that if I was lr or shadoweh was it would make sense to claim as you weigh up who gets to survive. My claiming here gave town no real advantage, and I knew this. You only seem to believe it does help town because you didn't already know my role.

An unknown claim can potentially effect a lynch, because it has the potential to be pr. But from my perspective there is no such potential, so claiming does not help the decision at all, and I am aware it won't help the decision. So my claiming is never pro town, I know this. You only believe it could potentially be pro town because you don't know the claim. Sorry if I'm repeating btw.

But because of this not being pro town, it only really helps scum, who are pr hunting, by telling them I am not what they are looking for.

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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1786 on: March 14, 2020, 08:56:52 PM »
// Yeah, I'm going to go play FFXIV for a while and watch youtube videos or something. Hopefully I'll come back untilted.

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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1787 on: March 14, 2020, 08:59:03 PM »
be seeing you, dormio

ill read dusk post after i finish the video im watching

Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1788 on: March 14, 2020, 08:59:18 PM »
Here's me trying something new:

Conqueror - given Shadoweh was Town, what views or arguments of hers should be reused? What from her do you still disagree with? Same question in re Prims, Fabloo

Dormio - some of the people who townread me are Town, and some are Scum. How do we tell which is which?

Duskfall - wagon analysis is still valuable. I've read that Town/Town lynches the scumteam splits between them, but with a heated mislynch like Abu's the scumteam won't join in because they don't like to fake anger. Do you agree?

Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1789 on: March 14, 2020, 09:02:32 PM »
Oarfish the answer is sometimes, and without knowing the scumteam I don't think it's possible to predict whether they are going to decide the easy lynch, try push the counter then switch to the easy later, sit on a vanity wagon or choose any of these in any mix. Its complete wifom to try guess imo. The answer is scum does all of these and scum does all of these things regularly so saying what has happened this game is impossible. Town Vs town wagons rarely hold valuable info and I'm not really convinced they do this game. If someone can convince me otherwise, great. Show me the scum intent on someone's pushes or wagon positioning and I'll hear you out

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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1790 on: March 14, 2020, 09:03:47 PM »
good news
im not worked to death
Kilga is this right; like is this person seriously the player, and it's not some alias or something that's designed to be deliberately obfuscating? NekoNekoRex. Who the hell is that :C   ~Poya Aaaa (Serela), Bunny Must Die Mafia

Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1791 on: March 14, 2020, 09:11:46 PM »
Everyone - Are we at the stage of the game to lynch lurkers? Why/why not?

Disquieted - Any thoughts on Refa's last post?

Serela - What is Conq's scum meta?

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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1792 on: March 14, 2020, 09:16:50 PM »
Everyone - Are we at the stage of the game to lynch lurkers? Why/why not?

Serela - What is Conq's scum meta?
1.Yes. D1 it's too early to actually identify someone as a lurker, d2 they have to be doing it -really- audaciously (and we really needed a more infoful lynch then a lazy lurker lynch to hopefully get more to work with) but d3 you're at the point where you kinda can't safely wait longer. I mean, do you want to be potentially forced to do your lurker lynch in lylo?

2.I don't remember. I remember reading one post of his as off in Popcorn Mafia and shooting him over it (correctly) but that's about it.

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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1793 on: March 14, 2020, 09:17:18 PM »
bad news
I'm completely at a loss as to where to go this game.

Both of the lynch flips were town, despite playing extremely anti-town all game

I'm confused and upset.
Kilga is this right; like is this person seriously the player, and it's not some alias or something that's designed to be deliberately obfuscating? NekoNekoRex. Who the hell is that :C   ~Poya Aaaa (Serela), Bunny Must Die Mafia

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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1794 on: March 14, 2020, 09:17:59 PM »
I'd like to scumread oarfish just based on D1 and D2 still but their change of pace is actually kinda reading town????
Kilga is this right; like is this person seriously the player, and it's not some alias or something that's designed to be deliberately obfuscating? NekoNekoRex. Who the hell is that :C   ~Poya Aaaa (Serela), Bunny Must Die Mafia

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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1795 on: March 14, 2020, 09:18:41 PM »
This feels like a literal case of "MotK Mafia, where the scum is scummy and the town stopped playing"
Kilga is this right; like is this person seriously the player, and it's not some alias or something that's designed to be deliberately obfuscating? NekoNekoRex. Who the hell is that :C   ~Poya Aaaa (Serela), Bunny Must Die Mafia

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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1796 on: March 14, 2020, 09:20:23 PM »
I thought Dan was town D1 because they were effortposting (to a Dan extent) but that's obviously gone out the window

I haven't even remembered Niek was in the game half the time so that's also not a bad choice
Kilga is this right; like is this person seriously the player, and it's not some alias or something that's designed to be deliberately obfuscating? NekoNekoRex. Who the hell is that :C   ~Poya Aaaa (Serela), Bunny Must Die Mafia

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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1797 on: March 14, 2020, 09:21:00 PM »
yeah the scumhunting situation has gotten awkward, my take on it has been "People who are consistently looking town (sb) are fine still, people who I cleared mainly over one or two things (dusk, conq doing the shadoweh stunt) I need to unclear from being town off that", also it's time to lynch dan for not existing

And yeah the usual motk mafia slogan sure still is true, huh? We lynched the people who were barely playing, and oh boy, THEY WERE TOWN. I swear to god if Dan is town too we were pretty much doomed from the start, what are you gonna do when the lurker lynches take up literally all the mislynches town gets

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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 3
« Reply #1798 on: March 14, 2020, 09:22:20 PM »
Oh boy not a lot happened while I was gone.

Anyway first thing, I'm gonna throw up Endday votecounts, and color in some stuff:

Key - Green = Town
Blue = Unconfirmed but likely town [Myself; Dormio/NNR due to mason claims]
Italics = Previous Vote

End of Day 1 Vote Count

AbuHumaid (YuugenMagan) (9): Serela, Duskfall98, Conqueror, Prims, Dormio Ergo Sum, Nuxl, Serela, O4rfish, Niektory, sb, Shadoweh, AbuHumaid
Raikaria (Sunny Milk) (4): Serela, zwerdjib, Conqueror, Prims, sb, Refa, Duskfall98, AbuHumaid, zwerdjib, Shadoweh, Raikaria
Dormio (Ran Yakumo) (1): sb, Niektory, Xinnidy
Shadoweh (Yuuka Kazami) (1): Conqueror, Dormio Ergo Sum, ActionDan, zwerdjib, Conqueror, sb, Refa, O4rfish
Serela (Koishi Komeiji) (1): Serela, Prims, NekoNekoRex
Duskfall98 (Shinki) (0): Nuxl, Raikaria, AbuHumaid, Shadoweh
NekoNekoRex (Chen) (0): zwerdjib, Niektory, O4rfish, zwerdjib
Prims (Narumi Yatadera) (0): Raikaria, Shadoweh
O4rfish (Rumia) (0): Raikaria, Dormio Ergo Sum
Conqueror (Tenshi Hinanawi) (0): Shadoweh
sb (Sanae Kochiya) (0): Xinnidy
Xinnidy (Yumemi Okazaki) (0):
zwerdjib (Yuyuko Saigyouji) (0): AbuHumaid, Dormio Ergo Sum, O4rfish, Refa, NekoNekoRex
Refa (Reimu Hakurei) (0): zwerdjib
ActionDan (Rinnosuke Morichika) (0):
Nuxl (Youki Konpaku) (0): Prims, O4rfish, AbuHumaid, NekoNekoRex
Niektory (Yukari Yakumo) (0):

Not voting (1): Nuxl

End of Day 2 Vote Count

Shadoweh (Yuuka Kazami) (8): Conqueror, NekoNekoRex, zwerdjib, Serela, Conqueror, Duskfall98, Nuxl, Fabloo, Refa, Conqueror, Duskfall98, Raikaria, O4rfish, zwerdjib, Fabloo
Duskfall98 (Shinki) (6): Shadoweh, zwerdjib, Niektory, Conqueror, Shadoweh, Fabloo, ActionDan, zwerdjib, NekoNekoRex, sb
O4rfish (Rumia) (1): NekoNekoRex, sb, Dormio Ergo Sum, NekoNekoRex, Shadoweh
Dormio (Ran Yakumo) (0): O4rfish, Raikaria
ActionDan (Rinnosuke Morichika) (0): Duskfall98
Niektory (Yukari Yakumo) (0): Fabloo, Nuxl, Conqueror
Serela (Koishi Komeiji) (0): Refa, Conqueror, Niektory
Conqueror (Tenshi Hinanawi) (0): Fabloo
sb (Sanae Kochiya) (0): NekoNekoRex, NekoNekoRex, O4rfish
Raikaria (Sunny Milk) (0):
Fabloo (Yumemi Okazaki) (0):
zwerdjib (Yuyuko Saigyouji) (0):
Refa (Reimu Hakurei) (0):
NekoNekoRex (Chen) (0): sb
Nuxl (Youki Konpaku) (0):

Not voting (0): No one!


I think there are some rather notable things to take away from this:

1: Serela was involved in both mislynches. Serela was also one of the first on Shadoweh's wagon and quite big in the lynch of Abu.

2: O4rfish was also involved in both mislynches.

3: While Conqueror was not on Shadoweh's final wagon, he flipped on and off her three times and generally was pushing heavily on Shadoweh throughout Day 2. He was also one of the earlier people on Shadoweh's counterwagon. Perhaps scum letting town ride the wagon he pushed to start with?

4: Refa; Duskfall and zwej have all ended days on Town or Likely Town wagons.

5: Most people who have voted O4rfish are Town or Semi-Confirmed town.

6: It's worth noting Prims voted Serela during Day 1. He then died. It's also worth noting that in Fabloo's Readonomicon he states 'Do not Townread Serela'.

Quote
Conq why are you being so safe with #223. #224 Then make it? Votes mean a lot, and if I'm going from the perspective of what you said earlier "trying to take it easier this game" then I don't get hesitance here. It should be vote Serela no questions asked. Why'd you hesitate? Are you worried about being wrong despite your previous claim in quotations? #231 from Raikara: Just came back from the Mafia Hideout and forgot I needed to post. Not a true read just me having fun..unless? Honest not wowed by Rai here. #239 SB remains in the range of agreable. This seems like a common trope of this game, something I may have to break down later for my own entertainment. #244 Self-deprecation from Refa; townie look. Town don't actually like playing Mafia, they just want all of the benefits that come with it. Those 5 pages I dialed into felt more like 3 worth of content.

P6  I've seen shadoweh post but I can't remember them. Doesn't make them bad just doesn't really stand out either way. Skimming Nuxl/Zwerd now, they seem to fill up gaps between the other players. Still dislike Zwerd feel good tonally about Nuxl. I preemptively townread Dormio as of #277.  I preemptively want to townread Sir Prims for his #281 but his style seems more refined. If Nuxl is someone who isn't self-aware, then Prims would be someone who is so self-aware that it can become hubris. These are all reads based on now instead of before. I won't make a huge point about this for now. #283 Serela's personality sticks out more than what they're saying. I can't read it right now will probably PoE. #286 noting that ORfish has a soapbox he pulls out from his closet. #294 I like the response from Nuxl here, had the same thought actually. Don't townread Serela.

7: I decided to basically ctrl+f Serela in Fabloo's posts; it's mostly saying he struggles to read Serela; to the point he struggles to even really tell who Serela wants lynched.

8: However, Fabloo does propose a Conq+Shadoweh team, so maybe Conq scum opinion was why?

---

I'm actually starting to suspect a Conq+Serela scumteam. I'm gonna go and readread Serela in particular [And any interactions with Conq]. I had suspicions on him D1; but during D2 I lost them a bit. But now they're rising again. The fact Prims randomly died D1 after being one of the few to vote Serela; and Serela being on both mislynches is quite suspicious in of itself. Then there's Fabloo pointing out a suspicious moment where Conq did not vote for Serela.


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Re: Neo Forum Mafia - Day 1
« Reply #1799 on: March 14, 2020, 09:23:03 PM »
god my touhou char is so cute

vote duskfall98

I have an avi is this a real vote

put on a damn avi please